Full card tonight, I will post plays as the public data becomes more established. On to the first play:
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5)
I calculate the Timberwolves to have a 7-point Vegas advantage. They also have a favorable referee draw, gaining 4.9 points for home court.
The Blazers have major issues on the road and that will continue tonight. Kevin Love is a rebounding genius, and nothing kills a team like Portland more than second-chance points. I am wagering half of my unit on the spread and half of my unit on the T-Wolves ML.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Full card tonight, I will post plays as the public data becomes more established. On to the first play:
Minnesota Timberwolves (+2.5)
I calculate the Timberwolves to have a 7-point Vegas advantage. They also have a favorable referee draw, gaining 4.9 points for home court.
The Blazers have major issues on the road and that will continue tonight. Kevin Love is a rebounding genius, and nothing kills a team like Portland more than second-chance points. I am wagering half of my unit on the spread and half of my unit on the T-Wolves ML.
The Heat are given a 6-point Vegas implied advantage in this match-up. Yes, the Bucks have a slightly higher than average home referee advantage, but the fact is that the Bucks just aren’t talented to hang with one of the best teams in the league. It isn’t even fair that the Bucks are short-handed in this game.
The total is even calling for a blow-out, because if the Bucks were expected to hang with the star-studded Heat, the total would have to go over 183. Let’s face it, the Heat can absolutely embarrass any team, on any given night. Bet the Heat and don’t sweat, they will run away with this game at some point.
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Play number 2:
Miami Heat (-7)
The Heat are given a 6-point Vegas implied advantage in this match-up. Yes, the Bucks have a slightly higher than average home referee advantage, but the fact is that the Bucks just aren’t talented to hang with one of the best teams in the league. It isn’t even fair that the Bucks are short-handed in this game.
The total is even calling for a blow-out, because if the Bucks were expected to hang with the star-studded Heat, the total would have to go over 183. Let’s face it, the Heat can absolutely embarrass any team, on any given night. Bet the Heat and don’t sweat, they will run away with this game at some point.
I calculate a 5-point Vegas implied advantage for the Spurs here. The Spurs will also enjoy a below-average road disadvantage due to a good referee draw.
The Pacers are a bit of a rag-tag team and have trouble hanging with elite teams, like the Spurs. The Spurs are without Parker, but Ginobli and Hill are more than capable of splitting the point guard duties. The Spurs should cruise to an easy road victory here.
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Final Play:
San Antonio Spurs (-5)
I calculate a 5-point Vegas implied advantage for the Spurs here. The Spurs will also enjoy a below-average road disadvantage due to a good referee draw.
The Pacers are a bit of a rag-tag team and have trouble hanging with elite teams, like the Spurs. The Spurs are without Parker, but Ginobli and Hill are more than capable of splitting the point guard duties. The Spurs should cruise to an easy road victory here.
Looks that way, logically.. But my plays are based on applied mathematical theory and the information inefficiency of betting markets. It pays the bills, so I don't dispute the findings.
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Quote Originally Posted by EVANTORR:
revenge game and at home..bucks win SU
Looks that way, logically.. But my plays are based on applied mathematical theory and the information inefficiency of betting markets. It pays the bills, so I don't dispute the findings.
People, when are the non-believers going to get converted. Miami is the best team in the league. They possess not one, but TWO of the top 5 players, maybe top 4 or 3, in the entire NBA!!
On top of that, they have a number 3 player who is amazing in his own right and doesn't seem to care about the spotlight, just winning.
Wade having an off-night, no problem. Bosh and Bron shall crush you. Bosh off? Wade and Bron, etc, etc, etc and they don't even have their best 3 point shooter, who is expected back shortly Speaking of miller's return, that is when they may look slightly out of tune as everyone adjusts to a new man in the rotation.
Regardless, we are looking at history with this squad. The Heat is that good...
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Quote Originally Posted by EVANTORR:
revenge game and at home..bucks win SU
I wish I was your book.
People, when are the non-believers going to get converted. Miami is the best team in the league. They possess not one, but TWO of the top 5 players, maybe top 4 or 3, in the entire NBA!!
On top of that, they have a number 3 player who is amazing in his own right and doesn't seem to care about the spotlight, just winning.
Wade having an off-night, no problem. Bosh and Bron shall crush you. Bosh off? Wade and Bron, etc, etc, etc and they don't even have their best 3 point shooter, who is expected back shortly Speaking of miller's return, that is when they may look slightly out of tune as everyone adjusts to a new man in the rotation.
Regardless, we are looking at history with this squad. The Heat is that good...
yeah logic is overratted lol...goodluck...not knocking your system at all...whatver works for you and more power to you for sticking to it! Discipline.
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yeah logic is overratted lol...goodluck...not knocking your system at all...whatver works for you and more power to you for sticking to it! Discipline.
People, when are the non-believers going to get converted. Miami is the best team in the league. They possess not one, but TWO of the top 5 players, maybe top 4 or 3, in the entire NBA!!
On top of that, they have a number 3 player who is amazing in his own right and doesn't seem to care about the spotlight, just winning.
Wade having an off-night, no problem. Bosh and Bron shall crush you. Bosh off? Wade and Bron, etc, etc, etc and they don't even have their best 3 point shooter, who is expected back shortly Speaking of miller's return, that is when they may look slightly out of tune as everyone adjusts to a new man in the rotation.
Regardless, we are looking at history with this squad. The Heat is that good...
You do not wish you were my book, trust that.
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Quote Originally Posted by tuna411:
I wish I was your book.
People, when are the non-believers going to get converted. Miami is the best team in the league. They possess not one, but TWO of the top 5 players, maybe top 4 or 3, in the entire NBA!!
On top of that, they have a number 3 player who is amazing in his own right and doesn't seem to care about the spotlight, just winning.
Wade having an off-night, no problem. Bosh and Bron shall crush you. Bosh off? Wade and Bron, etc, etc, etc and they don't even have their best 3 point shooter, who is expected back shortly Speaking of miller's return, that is when they may look slightly out of tune as everyone adjusts to a new man in the rotation.
Regardless, we are looking at history with this squad. The Heat is that good...
Im not saying the heat are bad. I am saying that they are on an 11 game road winning streak and within a few games that will come to an end. Thats fact. Its a very good angle to come from. And I dont even need heat to lose they can win by 7 and I will be just as happy. GL bud.
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Im not saying the heat are bad. I am saying that they are on an 11 game road winning streak and within a few games that will come to an end. Thats fact. Its a very good angle to come from. And I dont even need heat to lose they can win by 7 and I will be just as happy. GL bud.
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