PACERS THREAD FROM A LOCAL...YEAR 2

Got a lot of requests for another Pacers thread this year, and we had a lot of fun with the thread last year…so here we go for year two of the Pacers thread.

Last years thread started off with me being very certain about a lot of things with the Pacers, and it led to a lot of winning bets right out of the gate.  This year is going to be very different.

There are more questions than answers with this team right now, but I will eventually make the case that it can be a good thing long term.

First, we will go over the obvious two things, and that's Paul Georges bad injury and Lance's departure.

Lance:  Him leaving will hurt the team right now, but I thought the Pacers were in a no-lose situation with him.  If he wanted to sign with the Pacers on their terms it meant he was in a "win-first" mindset, and he was willing to be coached and get better.  If he left for more money on a worse team, it meant he was in a "get paid first" mindset, and he was not ready to mature and get better.  Either way, the Pacers got their answer, and I liked the way Bird handled it.

FYI:  For the life of me I cannot figure out why certain media members can't get the Lance situation.  So let me clarify.  The Pacers offered Lance more guaranteed years for more money.  Charlotte offered him less money per year for less years.  But here's what people don't get.  Charlotte's offer will be over the exact year the NBA renegotiates their TV deal, and the cap on teams is expected to go up by $20 million.  This means free agents that year will be getting massive contracts.  So if Lance thinks he's really good, and he can be amazing for a few years at Charlotte, he thinks he will get a huge contract at the end of the Charlotte deal.  The Pacers wanted to lock him up for more years, but Lance felt long term he would lose money.  

Paul George:  We all saw the terrible injury suffered by PG, and it was brutal for Pacers fans to watch.  I believe that his lack of presence on defense is going to affect this team more than his lack of offense.  Talented wing players are going to have field days on this team as it looks like Solomon Hill will be forced to try and lock down the wing.  Nobody can truly stop Lebron or Durant, but you can try and make it difficult for them.  The other night Solomon Hill tried to guard Lebron and it was embarrassing.  On offense, I thought with Lance being gone there was going to be more pressure on him to flourish, but I thought it would be a good thing.  I thought the offense got really stale last year, but with Lance out of the mix it would open it up for PG to do more ball handling and I thought that aspect of the Lance departure would help the Pacers.  Now, I'm not totally sure where the wing production is going to come from.

We've gone over the bad things of the Pacers situation, now lets look at some of the good things.

George Hill-  This guys is a scorer at heart, but his career in the NBA has been weird.  I feel like he's been horribly misused, but here's his chance.  They are going to give him the green light to create a lot of offense, and people that don't know his high school and college career are going to be surprised.  He's capable of scoring on most guards, and I think we will see a lot of that.

Roy Hibbert-  I've never seen a disappearing act like what Hibbert did last year.  Completely baffling, and he took a lot of criticism, and deservedly so.

SIDE NOTE:  There were lots of rumors about his fiance and PG, and Lance, and threesomes, and all sorts of things.  I know people get excited about drama like that, and I'll be honest…I really thought they were true.  However, I can burst the drama bubble by saying I have confirmed that they were nothing more than rumors.  Hibbert, and PG are friends…nothing happened.  Hibbert is a sensitive guy, and him and his fiance had problems, but they worked it out and got married. 

Hibbert now seems to have his off the court issues behind him, and this year is make or break for him.  We've seen him be a dominant force at times, but this is the year where he has to be consistent.  He has progressed nicely from where he was when he entered the league, but it's time to take the next step, and consistency is the next step for him.  Along with George Hill, this is Hibbert's chance to shine.  He is going to get the touches and the chances, it's just what can he do with them. 


Whenever there is a big injury, people tend to freak out, and for good reason.  However, when there's an injury it opens up spots to see what other guys can do, and sometimes someone comes out of nowhere to be impressive, and then when your injured players comes back your team has improved.  I'm hoping this happens to the Pacers, but I don't see who can be that difference maker who comes out of nowhere.  However, I'm going to take a stab at it.  My sleeper guy on this team is Damjan Rudez.  He's 6'10", but only 210 lbs, however he is a sharp shooter from Europe.  I don't know much about him, but anyone that is 6'10" who can drain threes all day has a place in the NBA.  Just ask Kyle Korver.  He isn't slated to be the starter right now, but he is going to get minutes and could earn the job if he plays good.

Chris Copeland-  It's no secret that I was very critical of Vogel for not using Copeland early in the season, and not developing him at all, but Copeland is going to play this season, and if he can just be mediocre at defense, I think he can be a real nice weapon on offense.

Here's another good thing the Pacers have going for them.  Their schedule isn't brutal to start off with.  They have some ok teams to play, but they don't play a legit contender till November 15th, the 11th game in the season.  That gives them time to mess around with lineups, and rotations without getting smashed by title contenders.

Best Case Scenario that is Possible:  As disgusting that injury was to Paul George, I'm not convinced he's out for the year.  Let's say the Pacers play slightly better than people think over the course of the year and look like they can be in position to grab a middle seed in the East.  If Paul George heals up, and can come back by April and get 10 regular season games in and then is ready for the playoffs…they could be a team that a high seed wants no part of.  As the year goes on, the Pacers are going to know who is a playmaker and who isn't.  So let's say Hibbert and George Hill step up and play well.  We know David West is a monster, and one other guy (Solomon Hill, Rudez, Copeland, etc) develops into a good starter over the course of the year.  These guys look good and get wins for the Pacers, and then all of a sudden Paul George comes back.  They wouldn't be in a position to be a title contender, but the East is wide open, and Cleveland is going to be good, but I don't think they are going to be as dominant as some think.  They got some holes that will need to be filled over the next year or two.  Chicago looks decent, but we never know with Derrick Rose.  Who's left that's really scary?  Toronto?  Washington?  Atlanta?  Miami?  Nobody stands out.  A lot would have to happen, but it's possible the Pacers could come on towards the end of the year if PG comes back.

Fantasy advice:  Throw last years playoffs out.  Hibbert is going to be fine.  He will be a rebound/block machine and the points will be there.  He'll be a 12-10-3 a night guy with the occasional big game, and occasional bad game.  West is going to be nice, but I think Vogel wisely drops his minutes some nights.  If you want a sleeper, get George Hill.  He is going to get a lot of shots, and the points will follow.  Get him late in your draft, and you'll be happy.  He's undervalued.

Betting advice:  Sometimes the best way to make money…is to not lose money.  Sadly, I don't have a good feel right now for the team on a point spread basis.  And nobody does.  I saw an interview with David West…and he doesn't even have a feel for this team and how good they are going to be.  If David West doesn't know…I don't know.  And anyone who says they know for sure about the Pacers (good or bad) is guessing.  And I don't guess when I bet.  Like always, it all depends on the lines, but the sportsbooks will be guessing so it's possible they will have some lines to take advantage of, but I won't be making big bets on the point spread.  I do think  fading them on the ML might be a good thing to do early on until they figure out a rotation and they know what they are getting from guys…but even then I'm not sure.

Last year I made the OH system famous, but that play was based on the assumption that the Pacers defense was so good, that at least one half they could hold an opponent to hit the under.  Also, the Pacers offense got so bad, that helped make it profitable.  Unfortunately, I just don't think I will play the OH system till I see more of the regular season.  The Pacers will give up lots of points on the wing, and I don't know what their offense will look like.  It wouldn't surprise me if it improved, so I'm not ready to declare that the Pacers are a strictly under team.  

So I'm going to be very patient with this team.  The first few games will be only for learning for me, and I'll let everyone know what I see.  Hopefully, we can get some answers early in the season and start making some winning wagers as the season moves on.

10 more days left!

 Glad to see this back up again this year. Thanks Allen

Can't wait! Love the nba

No problem! Hope we have as much fun as we did last year

By the way, if anyone has an extra spot in a fantasy basketball league, let me know.  As of now I'm not in a league, and I'd like to get into one.

Would like to join a fantasy basketball league as well.  How many do we need?

Good luck this year!

Looks like my buddy has one going.  Accept my friend request and I'll send you a link to join.  If anyone else wants to join, let me know.

No worries.  When will you do the draft though.  I am on the other side of the world so we have a time difference 

Thought I'd mention this...

The Pacers sent out a picture of the team during shootaround...and what do you know, there's Paul George in the background shooting the ball.  The Pacers confirmed he's already able to get on the court and shoot the ball during practice. 

I'll keep saying it...as gruesome as his injury was, it wasn't a major ligament or tendon.  He's got the best doctors and rehab facilities you can possibly get...don't be surprised at all if he plays this year.  Obviously, he's got a lot of healing to do, and things will have to fall the right way, but in the terrible Eastern Conference, there is motivation for him to get back for a possible playoff run.  His bone will be healed, and then it's just a matter of getting strength and conditioning up.  I really believe that if the Pacers somehow are a mid to lower seed in the playoffs, and he's up to speed...it could be a very interesting first round matchup against a higher seed in the East.

Just in case somebody is looking at the Pacers-76ers tonight and thinking the 76ers are awful, and the Pacers should kill them, take a look at the injuries.  David West, George Hill and CJ Watson are all out.  I have no idea what this means for the line or the O/U, but this is a great game to stay away from. 

Sixers must REALLY suck to be 7-point dogs tonight.  I was a season tix holder through last year.  Hibbert is a joke.  Not sure how bad Philly is, but at +245, that is tempting against this depleted Pacers squad.

It is tempting, but it's really tough to put hard earned money on a team that is openly trying to lose. As for Hibbert, I encourage you to read what I wrote above. He had some awful moments last year, but his off the court life is better right now. I think he's going to have a pretty solid year. GL!

Glad to see you have another Pacers thread going this year Alan.

Good luck this season

Brief write-up from what I noticed the other night.  Figured I do the write-up after realizing that not many people probably tuned in to the 76ers-depleted Pacers game.

1.  Roy Hibbert looked really good against an inferior opponent, and he will continue to do this.  There just aren't very many good defenders who can match his height and size, so he's going to be really good against teams like this.  We will have to see how he will do against good defensive teams, but I think we can expect him to be a matchup problem for lots of teams this year.

2.  Very impressed with how Stuckey looked.  Obviously the 76ers aren't a good defensive team, but I really liked how he was aggressive, and really seemed to be a leader when he was on the court.  He made some nice shots, but was pretty efficient with it.

3.  The Pacers hit their open shots.  This sounds easy, but there are lots of guys that miss open shots, and it comes back to haunt teams.  Copeland, Watson, and Stuckey all were good from the perimeter when they were supposed to be, and that's how these guys will develop.  Start by hitting the open shots, and progress into hitting the more difficult shots.

4.  I think I was most impressed by the flow on offense.  For having the amount of injuries they do, I really liked the passing and spacing.  It seemed like they were in a groove, and it got sloppy a couple of times, but for the most part they did really good.

5.  Defense was as good as it could be.  Losing West and PG, and Lance is going to be tough to overcome, but being realistic, the guys that played did as good as they could've.  They are really going to struggle against good offensive teams, but I liked the hustle and passion.  Glad to see Vogel still preaches the defense.

Couple of NBA notes:

Scott Brooks has to be the worse "out of timeout" coach in the league.  It's become a joke to watch his set plays...and I use the term "set plays" loosely.  Watch coaches like Doc, and Pop, and even Spoelstra (very underrated "out of timeout" coach)...and then look at what Scott Brooks drew up last night...TWICE!!!  He got a contested, awkward pick and roll where they didn't pick, and barely rolled, and threw it off a defenders foot.  They they get a floating, off balance layup into two defenders that goes off the side of the backboard.  I really hate watching it because I'm a big Westbrook fan, but I think Brooks may have wasted some Championship opportunity years in OKC. 

The Bulls could be a buzzsaw in the East.  I know it's only one game, but they have a real chance to jump out to a big lead the next couple months to where Cleveland can't catch up as they will need a few months to get their rotation and style in a groove.

For all the bettors out there, I'd keep a real close eye on Detroit over the next month.  Van Gundy is a really good coach, and if Detroit looks really bad over the next 4 weeks they are going to be a great team to get behind as I can see them covering games once Van Gundy gets his style in this team.  They have some pieces, and I think he will get this team to play smart and tough as the year goes on.  Could be great value.

Back to the Pacers game tonight...

I look at the game tonight against the Grizzlies, and I think it's a mismatch in the paint.  If there is one team to really take advantage of David West being out it's Memphis.  Hibbert will be on Gasol, and if you are looking for Randolph tonight just look under the rim.  He'll be there after muscling guys out of his way for a layup.

I also look at what Memphis did the other night against Minnesota, and I wasn't too impressed with their defense.  That's a team they should've shut down, but they gave up over 100 points...lots of them on jump shots.

I think Memphis does what they want on the offensive end, but I think the Pacers do enough on the offensive end to put up some points.

Not a huge play, but I am going to put a little bit on the over at 185.

great one to read  

great insight. thx allan. gl bud

Nothing like getting a win on an over bet by getting 2 last second meaningless free throws...but a win is a win...and these will all even out at the end of the year. 

Pacers actually looked really good except for that disaster third quarter where they gave up a 26-2 run.  Even with that run they still almost covered the spread.  That's why I'm surprised to see them 10.5 point dogs tonight.  I'm going to lay off this game tonight, but I lean Pacers and the points along with the under.  Not sure the Pacers have the consistency on offense to get this point total above 194.

I liked what I saw from Stuckey again, and I like to see lots of guys contributing, but when you've got a lot of unexpected injuries it's tough to be consistent.  That makes it pretty tough to bet on or against a team. 

Hey Alan.   

Good to see you Alan.

Keep up the good work.

Enjoyed the Pacer thread last year and I'm already enjoying it this year.

Thanks Scal...always enjoy following your write-ups as well.