wait so your chasing the suns because they emptied your pockets 4 months ago????
I described that night as the night I got Suns-pilled, so to speak. That's the night I felt sure I was looking at this season's NBA champion. Two days later I placed my futures bet. Since then, the Suns have only further enhanced my confidence in them.
They were 35-9 on the night I bet on them +800. The fact that they went on to break their franchise record for regular season wins came as no surprise to me. Call it luck if you want. Few are willing to give the Suns credit for how good they are, and the Suns themselves are well aware of that.
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Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
wait so your chasing the suns because they emptied your pockets 4 months ago????
I described that night as the night I got Suns-pilled, so to speak. That's the night I felt sure I was looking at this season's NBA champion. Two days later I placed my futures bet. Since then, the Suns have only further enhanced my confidence in them.
They were 35-9 on the night I bet on them +800. The fact that they went on to break their franchise record for regular season wins came as no surprise to me. Call it luck if you want. Few are willing to give the Suns credit for how good they are, and the Suns themselves are well aware of that.
they are still +200, +800 4 months ago aint that great of value for all the potential problems you could have endured along the way to the playoffs
While watching the closing minutes of that MLK Day game against the Spurs, I already knew I was going to look into betting on this team to win the championship. +800 happened to be the best price at the time. Wasn't really a value bet. I simply considered it to be.....a sensational bet! One hundred and seven days later, it still is.
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Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
they are still +200, +800 4 months ago aint that great of value for all the potential problems you could have endured along the way to the playoffs
While watching the closing minutes of that MLK Day game against the Spurs, I already knew I was going to look into betting on this team to win the championship. +800 happened to be the best price at the time. Wasn't really a value bet. I simply considered it to be.....a sensational bet! One hundred and seven days later, it still is.
MY LINES..................................game 3's Celtics -.55 over Bucks Warriors -5.77 over Grizz Celtics +3 over Bucks --- 2.2 units Warriors -6.5 over Grizz --- 2.2 units
Good Luck on your 2 plays !!!
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
MY LINES..................................game 3's Celtics -.55 over Bucks Warriors -5.77 over Grizz Celtics +3 over Bucks --- 2.2 units Warriors -6.5 over Grizz --- 2.2 units
MT LINES..................................................game 3's 76ers -5.27 over Heat Mavs -3.07 over Suns teams down 0-2 receive 4 additional desperation pts. with Embiid playing 76ers have a good shot to get the win, will pass on the game but give 76ers a good shot to win and cover. Suns off 4 ATS wins with Mavs off 2 ATS losses, very good spot for the Mavs, play is on the Mavs Mavs pk over Suns --- 1.1 units
Great Work !!!
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
MT LINES..................................................game 3's 76ers -5.27 over Heat Mavs -3.07 over Suns teams down 0-2 receive 4 additional desperation pts. with Embiid playing 76ers have a good shot to get the win, will pass on the game but give 76ers a good shot to win and cover. Suns off 4 ATS wins with Mavs off 2 ATS losses, very good spot for the Mavs, play is on the Mavs Mavs pk over Suns --- 1.1 units
It's difficult to comprehend any power rating that doesn't rate the Suns as #1 or #2, especially if your ratings are based on the 82 game regular season, as some of your statements seem to indicate. They led the league in Ws by 8 games. They're 1st in margin of victory. They are the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If the ratings give more weight to recent games, then the Booker absence must factor in. Their 4th quarter margin of +2.6 is an astonishing 86.7% better than the 2nd place Warriors. Their longest losing streak for the season is 2 games. Their "Clutch Time" record of 33-9 is 4th best in NBA history (Since the NBA began tracking this in 1996) It seems that the only thing keeping the Suns from being ranked amongst the all-time great teams is possession of the Larry O'Brien trophy. (And, of course, PR #2) It seems that the Celtics are the only team that could possibly be ranked higher - depending on what weight is being given to what metric.
If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen?
I agree with you that the Grizzlies would be more formidable if their shooting metrics were better. Their superior rebounding won't be enough to overcome the shooting problems when it comes to winning championship.
Good luck with your picks.
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@theclaw
It's difficult to comprehend any power rating that doesn't rate the Suns as #1 or #2, especially if your ratings are based on the 82 game regular season, as some of your statements seem to indicate. They led the league in Ws by 8 games. They're 1st in margin of victory. They are the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If the ratings give more weight to recent games, then the Booker absence must factor in. Their 4th quarter margin of +2.6 is an astonishing 86.7% better than the 2nd place Warriors. Their longest losing streak for the season is 2 games. Their "Clutch Time" record of 33-9 is 4th best in NBA history (Since the NBA began tracking this in 1996) It seems that the only thing keeping the Suns from being ranked amongst the all-time great teams is possession of the Larry O'Brien trophy. (And, of course, PR #2) It seems that the Celtics are the only team that could possibly be ranked higher - depending on what weight is being given to what metric.
If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen?
I agree with you that the Grizzlies would be more formidable if their shooting metrics were better. Their superior rebounding won't be enough to overcome the shooting problems when it comes to winning championship.
[Quote: Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats]@theclaw If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen?
No he didn't say that. Read again. He said that 3 teams Celtics, Suns and Warriors had common denominators of past NBA champs.....
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[Quote: Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats]@theclaw If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen?
No he didn't say that. Read again. He said that 3 teams Celtics, Suns and Warriors had common denominators of past NBA champs.....
@theclaw If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen? No he didn't say that. Read again. He said that 3 teams Celtics, Suns and Warriors had common denominators of past NBA champs.....
..................................this is what I said Jimmy....cats, those 3 teams have the common denominators of past teams who have won the title, I am talking about most teams that won the title in the past have these same common denominators , not saying these 3 teams having won the title in the past.
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Quote Originally Posted by Force:
Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:
@theclaw If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen? No he didn't say that. Read again. He said that 3 teams Celtics, Suns and Warriors had common denominators of past NBA champs.....
..................................this is what I said Jimmy....cats, those 3 teams have the common denominators of past teams who have won the title, I am talking about most teams that won the title in the past have these same common denominators , not saying these 3 teams having won the title in the past.
@theclaw It's difficult to comprehend any power rating that doesn't rate the Suns as #1 or #2, especially if your ratings are based on the 82 game regular season, as some of your statements seem to indicate. They led the league in Ws by 8 games. They're 1st in margin of victory. They are the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If the ratings give more weight to recent games, then the Booker absence must factor in. Their 4th quarter margin of +2.6 is an astonishing 86.7% better than the 2nd place Warriors. Their longest losing streak for the season is 2 games. Their "Clutch Time" record of 33-9 is 4th best in NBA history (Since the NBA began tracking this in 1996) It seems that the only thing keeping the Suns from being ranked amongst the all-time great teams is possession of the Larry O'Brien trophy. (And, of course, PR #2) It seems that the Celtics are the only team that could possibly be ranked higher - depending on what weight is being given to what metric. If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen? I agree with you that the Grizzlies would be more formidable if their shooting metrics were better. Their superior rebounding won't be enough to overcome the shooting problems when it comes to winning championship. Good luck with your picks.
Overall My PR's would rank the Suns 2cd when adding both PR's together, behind the Celtics , with Warriors 3rd.
Record is a good indicator but not the best indicator.
Clutch Time , not sure what you are refering to but if you mean close wins which Suns lead the lead, that is a very poor indicator. A bad record in close wins is a much better indicator. Blowout wins is a much better indicator then close wins and Celtics lead the league there, not the Suns.
The Suns have a much better record then other teams based in a large part because of a very good record in close wins which is a poor indicator. That is why you can't always count on record being a good indicator.
But like I said, it would not suprise me at all if the Suns win the title but I don't think they are this historical strong team comparable to other great teams of the past, Celtics are a better team and could beat them and likely will if they happen to meet.
At the same time I think the Warriors might just beat them but I don't think they will at this point but that won't be an easy series if they happen to meet.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jimmy_Cats:
@theclaw It's difficult to comprehend any power rating that doesn't rate the Suns as #1 or #2, especially if your ratings are based on the 82 game regular season, as some of your statements seem to indicate. They led the league in Ws by 8 games. They're 1st in margin of victory. They are the only team in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. If the ratings give more weight to recent games, then the Booker absence must factor in. Their 4th quarter margin of +2.6 is an astonishing 86.7% better than the 2nd place Warriors. Their longest losing streak for the season is 2 games. Their "Clutch Time" record of 33-9 is 4th best in NBA history (Since the NBA began tracking this in 1996) It seems that the only thing keeping the Suns from being ranked amongst the all-time great teams is possession of the Larry O'Brien trophy. (And, of course, PR #2) It seems that the Celtics are the only team that could possibly be ranked higher - depending on what weight is being given to what metric. If I understand you correctly, in post #3 you stated the the Suns had previously won an NBA Championship. When did that happen? I agree with you that the Grizzlies would be more formidable if their shooting metrics were better. Their superior rebounding won't be enough to overcome the shooting problems when it comes to winning championship. Good luck with your picks.
Overall My PR's would rank the Suns 2cd when adding both PR's together, behind the Celtics , with Warriors 3rd.
Record is a good indicator but not the best indicator.
Clutch Time , not sure what you are refering to but if you mean close wins which Suns lead the lead, that is a very poor indicator. A bad record in close wins is a much better indicator. Blowout wins is a much better indicator then close wins and Celtics lead the league there, not the Suns.
The Suns have a much better record then other teams based in a large part because of a very good record in close wins which is a poor indicator. That is why you can't always count on record being a good indicator.
But like I said, it would not suprise me at all if the Suns win the title but I don't think they are this historical strong team comparable to other great teams of the past, Celtics are a better team and could beat them and likely will if they happen to meet.
At the same time I think the Warriors might just beat them but I don't think they will at this point but that won't be an easy series if they happen to meet.
both teams down 2-0 rolled to the SU & ATS wins. not sure they'll both win at home game 4 but 1 likely will and that'd most likely be the 76ers. Maybe Mavs could but I wouldn't count on it , Doncic is a super great player but he is not surrounded by other capable players, I don't see the Mavs as any kind of good solid playoff team and their opp is much better then the 76ers opp with the Heat being a weak no. 1 seed.
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1-0 ATS, won 1 unit
playoffs to date --- 3-2 ATS, won 2.8 units
both teams down 2-0 rolled to the SU & ATS wins. not sure they'll both win at home game 4 but 1 likely will and that'd most likely be the 76ers. Maybe Mavs could but I wouldn't count on it , Doncic is a super great player but he is not surrounded by other capable players, I don't see the Mavs as any kind of good solid playoff team and their opp is much better then the 76ers opp with the Heat being a weak no. 1 seed.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: @MrBator That's the regular season where teams do string more games together ATS, but playoffs it's far less likely to happen. Suns with best record will be priced like a team with best record. Their 6-2 ATS record so far in the playoffs strongly indicates that the Suns are not being priced like a team with the best record.
Well, they did not continue their ATS run. Bad spot.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: @MrBator That's the regular season where teams do string more games together ATS, but playoffs it's far less likely to happen. Suns with best record will be priced like a team with best record. Their 6-2 ATS record so far in the playoffs strongly indicates that the Suns are not being priced like a team with the best record.
Well, they did not continue their ATS run. Bad spot.
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: @MrBator That's the regular season where teams do string more games together ATS, but playoffs it's far less likely to happen. Suns with best record will be priced like a team with best record. You are letting the wrong information cloud your judgement of the Suns. Not saying the information is bad it is not the best information to use. Suns are a good team no doubt and they certainly could win the title but they are not any kind of juggernaut team that would easily win the title. Celtics are a better team and could beat them , even should be favored to beat them. Really? You'd make the Celtics a favorite in a Suns-Celtics NBA Finals with the Suns having homecourt advantage? A 51-win team over a 64-win team? Are you sure I'm the one who's letting the wrong information cloud my judgment?
Like I said, record is a good indicator however it is not the best. That is where you are letting record cloud your judgement. In every case where a team was significantly better record wise they were also better Power Rating wise, better in key indicators that are more important then record, that is why they won, they simple were the better team by a large amount.
But the Suns record does not equate to being the better team and certainly not by a large amount, not by any amount actually . The better indicators favor the Celtics.
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBator:
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw: @MrBator That's the regular season where teams do string more games together ATS, but playoffs it's far less likely to happen. Suns with best record will be priced like a team with best record. You are letting the wrong information cloud your judgement of the Suns. Not saying the information is bad it is not the best information to use. Suns are a good team no doubt and they certainly could win the title but they are not any kind of juggernaut team that would easily win the title. Celtics are a better team and could beat them , even should be favored to beat them. Really? You'd make the Celtics a favorite in a Suns-Celtics NBA Finals with the Suns having homecourt advantage? A 51-win team over a 64-win team? Are you sure I'm the one who's letting the wrong information cloud my judgment?
Like I said, record is a good indicator however it is not the best. That is where you are letting record cloud your judgement. In every case where a team was significantly better record wise they were also better Power Rating wise, better in key indicators that are more important then record, that is why they won, they simple were the better team by a large amount.
But the Suns record does not equate to being the better team and certainly not by a large amount, not by any amount actually . The better indicators favor the Celtics.
I don't handicap much basketball, but in the NFL blowout win are a MUCH stronger indicator than close wins which tend to regress, especially in the following season.
So I agree with TheClaw's analysis.
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I don't handicap much basketball, but in the NFL blowout win are a MUCH stronger indicator than close wins which tend to regress, especially in the following season.
[Quote: I don't handicap much basketball, but in the NFL blowout win are a MUCH stronger indicator than close wins which tend to regress, especially in the following season. So I agree with TheClaw's analysis.[/Quote]
I believe that most serious handicapper would tend to disagree with you. Football is too complex of a game to make such a blanket assertion. There are many variables to consider, player matchups, coaching styles, being likely or unlikely to turn the ball over, how the QB responds under pressure, etc. I'm inclined to think a 12-4 team that doesn't have a lot of blowout victories is stronger than a 10-6 team with more blowout wins. In the NFL, playing well against the best teams is a better indicator of strength than beating the Jets or Lions by 30 points.
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[Quote: I don't handicap much basketball, but in the NFL blowout win are a MUCH stronger indicator than close wins which tend to regress, especially in the following season. So I agree with TheClaw's analysis.[/Quote]
I believe that most serious handicapper would tend to disagree with you. Football is too complex of a game to make such a blanket assertion. There are many variables to consider, player matchups, coaching styles, being likely or unlikely to turn the ball over, how the QB responds under pressure, etc. I'm inclined to think a 12-4 team that doesn't have a lot of blowout victories is stronger than a 10-6 team with more blowout wins. In the NFL, playing well against the best teams is a better indicator of strength than beating the Jets or Lions by 30 points.
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