@theclaw
Thank you for your technical and mathematical analysis as you have been pretty on point. That said, I am leaning towards the Celtics but will probably lay off on the sides and play the UNDER as that appears to be the best bet IMO. If the W’s play how they usually do on the road, they won’t be hitting anywhere near the mid to high 30% for 3’s and if Time Lord plays, he’ll make it difficult to score easy buckets in the paint. In fact, I anticipate both teams to shoot cold and a lot of bricks in the 1H which should secure the UNDER for the game. And especially if the Celts blow out the W’s in the 2, the UNDER should be easy peasy.
if the Celts lose game 3, I will place a max $10k bet on them in game 4 whatever the spread (ie., likely -7 to -8).
MY LINES .......................................game 4
Celtics -2.85 over Warriors
line I see is Celtics -4, a 1.15 diff to my line favoring the Warriors ATS
with a 2-1 series since 1992...............................
a 2 pt diff to closing line 10-5 ATS
a 2 pt diff and off a SU win 6-2 ATS
A 2 PT diff and off a SU loss 4-3 ATS
with a 1.25 diff to 1.99 diff 2-1 ATS
with a 1.25 TO 1.99 diff and off a SU win 2-1 ATS
being off a SU win in game 4 with a 2-1 series seems to be the best spot based on my lines
for the Warriors to have a 2 pt diff the line needs to go to +5 but they are off a SU loss even if the line reaches +5
Celtics have no chance to get to a 2 pt diff, very little chance to get to a 1.25 diff, the line would need to drop to -1.5, the public would have to pound the Warriors for this to happen, not impossible but not very likely.
The best spot in game 4 based on history is the series winner - if the road team - they should should hold home court and go up 3-1.
We talked how the Celtics trailed the past 2 series a total of 5 times and needed to dig themselves out of a deep hole. Then we talked about how the Celtics would not trail this series as things return to the norm history has taught us.
To return completely to the norm Celtics win SU in game 4 and take a 3-1 series lead.
I fully expect a Celtics victory game 4 but think this will be the closest game of any game this series. It's possible the Celtics will win but the Warriors will cover game 4 which doesn't happen all that much for the winning team to not cover especially with a smaller line but it could in this spot. Let's wait-out the line and see what happens with the public and how the analyst may guide the public in a certain direction.
In this playoffs season there have been 61 home favorites so far. They are 44-17 SU and 35-26 ATS, so there were only 9 games (14.75%) where the HF won but the AD covered. The results are somewhat similar just looking at HFs of -1 to -5.5 points.
Good info dog. I think it depends on how the big favorites do in the first round. Some years they cover quite a bit but other years not so much
I didn't track it this year.
Normally I've noticed the larger the favorite the lee's often they win and cover.
Run that over 10 years if possible.
Line seems to be holding at -4 with some 4.5's. I do have another regression method I discovered last season but haven't research it much. It points more to Warriors coving but comes just short of qualifying as a regression play.
I still think Celtics win SU so will pass on this game unless the line goes to Warriors +5 then maybe will take 1 unit on Warriors.
I just looked at PO HFs off a win:
PO = 1 and HF and p:W
and line > -3.2
SU: 69-46 (3.03, 60.0%)
ATS: 63-52 (0.88, 54.8%)
Small playoff HFs of -1 to - 3 points off a win have a slight edge, but the avg ATS margin of less than one point provides NO confidence. Neither does the winning percentage knowing there could be some regression.
Intervening point spreads don't offer much and HFs of -10.5 or even more are just 50% ATS.
Good luck. I'll probably pass tonight; too many questions. While I always say "Injuries are bullshxt," I am leery of BOS tonight. Curry is listed as "probable" and RW III is listed as "questionable." If they both play SC should outplay RW III and play more minutes. When RW III played only 14 minutes in game #2, BOS got crushed.
Almost all of the Daily Wager handicappers like BOS. They also did Wednesday; can they be right again?
Adding: HFs of -3 to -5 points are 95-100-1 ATS. No edge there.
game 4 was going the way I thought it would with a close game, when either team got out to a small lead like 7 pts or so the other team would come right back and make it a close game or take the lead. With Celtics having a 4 pt lead with like 5 minutes left, it looked like this game would come down to the wire where either team could win SU but the game was in perfect position at that point for Celtics to win and Warriors to cover.
But then Celtics went cold, they couldn't make a shot, Smart took at least 2 triples and maybe 3 which when you really need a basket I doubt the best choice is Smart taking a 3, he's not a good 3 pt shooter, I cringed every time he touched the ball under 5 minutes left, hoping he wouldn't take the 3.
Smart took 9 triples game 4, the most of any Celtics player, crazy stuff, meanwhile Curry goes off for an insane game making damn-near everything he threw up and Celtics were still in good position had they been able to make a couple more shots late, had Smart not taking those two 3's under 5 minutes to play or 3 triples maybe the Celtics would have been right there at the end.
I don't see Curry repeating that performance in game 5.
Can’t wait to see your play.
MY LINES........................................game 5
Warriors -3.15 over Celtics
the best spot here is ....with the series tied to back the team will win the series. I doubt the Celtics can come back and win the series if they go down 3-2 the same way they did VS Bucks. Warriors do have the common denominators of past champs something neither Bucks or Heat had, and Celtics do not meet the minumum difference needed in either PR I or PR II, this suggesting these 2 teams are much more evenly matched.
We can't rule-out the Warriors won't win this series, but still will favor the Celtics to win the series, if they do they really need to win game 5.
Celtics ML +150 over Warriors --- 1 unit to win 1.5 units.
Good stuff Dog...........
Could you look up how teams do ATS in the next game after a player scores over 40 pts in the playoffs or in the finals if possible ? is that possible ?
and 2 games after scoring over 40 pts ?
Here is what he should look up. How do teams that win game 4 on the road in the finals to tie the series 2-2 fare at home in game 5. To find this out he will have to throw out those series that had 2-3-2 format.
@theclaw
As the douchebag beggerboy would say, game 5 is the “Martingale” game for the Celts. I am with you big on the Celts ML to continue their perfect 7-0 record of winning the next game after a loss in the playoffs. I realize the game is in the bay but the Celts as you know are road warriors and arguably play better away.
But even if they lose game 5 to be down 3-2, I still believe the Celts have it in them to win two straight to win the ship in 7 games. This would go down as one of the greatest comebacks in NBA history right behind the Cavs 3-1 comeback to beat, yes, the W’s in 2016 which was arguably the best team in NBA history as they set the record for most regular season wins.
If the W’s do win game 5, then I will place my single largest bet both on the ML and ATS $10k each.
If you are going to martingale from here on out, which I don’t recommend late in a series, that means you will be betting 10k tomorrow?!
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