Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
125 - 87 @ 59% for +29.3 Units
Sun, 03/27
#1: Memphis Grizzlies -2
This is the 4th and final meeting between these 2 teams as all previous three games were won by the home team. Interestingly enough, the Grizz are 3-0 ATS in those games, thus indicating that they match-up with the Spurs better than bookmakers expected. One key to this game will be turnovers. Grizzlies are the #2 team in the league in TOV% defensively, and the Spurs are coming off a game where they’ve committed 22 turnovers to the Blazers. In the last meeting in Memphis, San Antonio committed 21 turnovers, and I expect this to be a big factor tonight as well. In addition, Grizzlies are a team that crashes the offensive glass, ranking #6 in the league in ORB% on offense. Duncan’s size and defensive rebounding will be missed once again here tonight. Even with him in the lineup the Grizz averaged 16.33 offensive boards per game in the first 3 meetings, while the Spurs only had 9.6 per game. Big difference! I know some people will play the Spurs under the belief that ‘they can’t lose 3 in a row’, but when you break-down these matchups, I feel Memphis has an edge. Another key here is that Memphis is playing solid D lately, giving up 93 ppg and allowing 44% from the field to their opponents in the last 5 games. On the season they allow 98 ppg and 46% from the field. Clearly, playing above average right now on the defensive end. Spurs, on the other hand, haven’t been as effective defensively. This team is giving up 100 ppg and 48% shooting to their opponents in their last 5 games. I like this Memphis team to play good D, control the boards, and force San Antonio into a number of turnovers in this game. To me these are critical components to winning games and the Grizz have an edge in all of them tonight.
#2: UNDER 192 POR/OKC
Like I’ve mentioned in my breakdown last night, the first 2 games between these two teams (November—very early in the season) featured O/U’s at 194 and 193.5 this season. Both went OVER, yet the books opened this one at a lower number. Obviously there are factors like different personnel, improved play, and playoff seeding, that are in play now that weren’t as big of factors earlier in the season, but even so, opening up at a lower number is a fairly clear indicator of where the books see this one going. I agree. I see this one staying below the posted total. First of all, both teams are playing excellent D right now. Okie City is allowing 92 ppg in their last 5 (9 ppg less than season ave) while the Blazers are allowing 85 ppg in the same time-span (also 9 ppg less than season ave). Second of all, Portland is the #30th team from the standpoint of PACE this season. Okie City is #12. In the last 5 games though, Okie City has slowed it down just a tad, ranking #14 in PACE over that span. Not really that significant, but when you face an opponent like the Blazers, even this change could lead a to a couple fewer possessions, which is all we need for this one to stay UNDER. The O/U is 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between these 2 squads, with 2 OVERS coming through this season. In addition, the O/U is 1-7 in Thunder’s last 8 games, 2-9 versus ‘quality’ opponents, and 1-4 last 5 home games. O/U in Blazers’ games is 3-12 against ‘quality’ opponents and 1-5 in their last 6 with 1-day rest. In the last 8 meetings here in Oklahoma City the O/U is 1-7 and both teams have combined to go 3-7 O/U in their last 5 games combined. I like this game to have a ‘playoff’ feel to it, as both squads will slow the game down, contest every shot, and play a tight ball-game. UNDER is the play.
125 - 87 @ 59% for +29.3 Units
Sun, 03/27
#1: Memphis Grizzlies -2
This is the 4th and final meeting between these 2 teams as all previous three games were won by the home team. Interestingly enough, the Grizz are 3-0 ATS in those games, thus indicating that they match-up with the Spurs better than bookmakers expected. One key to this game will be turnovers. Grizzlies are the #2 team in the league in TOV% defensively, and the Spurs are coming off a game where they’ve committed 22 turnovers to the Blazers. In the last meeting in Memphis, San Antonio committed 21 turnovers, and I expect this to be a big factor tonight as well. In addition, Grizzlies are a team that crashes the offensive glass, ranking #6 in the league in ORB% on offense. Duncan’s size and defensive rebounding will be missed once again here tonight. Even with him in the lineup the Grizz averaged 16.33 offensive boards per game in the first 3 meetings, while the Spurs only had 9.6 per game. Big difference! I know some people will play the Spurs under the belief that ‘they can’t lose 3 in a row’, but when you break-down these matchups, I feel Memphis has an edge. Another key here is that Memphis is playing solid D lately, giving up 93 ppg and allowing 44% from the field to their opponents in the last 5 games. On the season they allow 98 ppg and 46% from the field. Clearly, playing above average right now on the defensive end. Spurs, on the other hand, haven’t been as effective defensively. This team is giving up 100 ppg and 48% shooting to their opponents in their last 5 games. I like this Memphis team to play good D, control the boards, and force San Antonio into a number of turnovers in this game. To me these are critical components to winning games and the Grizz have an edge in all of them tonight.
#2: UNDER 192 POR/OKC
Like I’ve mentioned in my breakdown last night, the first 2 games between these two teams (November—very early in the season) featured O/U’s at 194 and 193.5 this season. Both went OVER, yet the books opened this one at a lower number. Obviously there are factors like different personnel, improved play, and playoff seeding, that are in play now that weren’t as big of factors earlier in the season, but even so, opening up at a lower number is a fairly clear indicator of where the books see this one going. I agree. I see this one staying below the posted total. First of all, both teams are playing excellent D right now. Okie City is allowing 92 ppg in their last 5 (9 ppg less than season ave) while the Blazers are allowing 85 ppg in the same time-span (also 9 ppg less than season ave). Second of all, Portland is the #30th team from the standpoint of PACE this season. Okie City is #12. In the last 5 games though, Okie City has slowed it down just a tad, ranking #14 in PACE over that span. Not really that significant, but when you face an opponent like the Blazers, even this change could lead a to a couple fewer possessions, which is all we need for this one to stay UNDER. The O/U is 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between these 2 squads, with 2 OVERS coming through this season. In addition, the O/U is 1-7 in Thunder’s last 8 games, 2-9 versus ‘quality’ opponents, and 1-4 last 5 home games. O/U in Blazers’ games is 3-12 against ‘quality’ opponents and 1-5 in their last 6 with 1-day rest. In the last 8 meetings here in Oklahoma City the O/U is 1-7 and both teams have combined to go 3-7 O/U in their last 5 games combined. I like this game to have a ‘playoff’ feel to it, as both squads will slow the game down, contest every shot, and play a tight ball-game. UNDER is the play.
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