Gm 4 Pick and Why

We have had a nice run so far  hit the main game SA last time and lost on the small small ot play - record stands at 4-1.    Let's look at some numbers:

         SA  2 

-1.5  NY  14   

NY opened as a 1.5 fav currently 2 and 2.5 (-115) (madduxsports.com) at some places.     SA has a rating of 2 and NY a rating of 14 - I collect info from outside sources and use my own methodology to assign the numbers - lower the better on paper.     

Ideally I'd like to find ratings with 2-14 and an opening line of -1.5 for the home team - I don't have an exact situation and only have 1 data point that's similar with an opening line of 1.5 for the home team.   In that game the away team won the game straight up.   You don't often see ratings like this - thus the limited data - thus this is when I take a pause and realize there's plenty of action out there so don't go crazy.   My plays:

1. SA +2.5 -115   

2. Once again a small small play on - tied at the end of regulation +950  . 

Good luck all

@TheBuddah

 BOL tonight 

GL  on your play I like your style @TheBuddah

Could be . Same line as last game , same result ? Will be interesting

@sportschat

 Thanks bud - back at ya .

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac - back at ya. 

@asmth14

 Actually the line is different - last game it opened at -2 , this time it’s -1.5 .  I know it sounds insignificant but from doing this for quite a while I find every half a point means something and can impact your choice of team A or B with the ratings .  That’s why I mention the opening line in my posts .  Agree - it should be interesting . 

@TheBuddah

 I agree with that on the opening line --  As I can usually read lines too and this game 4 is a little tougher to predict than the first few. My big lean here was under though. Think too many were dismissing all the whistles from last game and it gets back to being lower scoring. Thought O/ U opening lower was a " tell" 

Game line to me I get your thinking and with Spurs being the pre - series fav and people thinking they are right back in it I can see the reasoning but it then re-verting back to same line as last game made me do a bit of a double-take... Keep in mind many kept adding with Spurs series price at +390 ish down 0-2 and now at +175... Not to say Spurs wont win tonight, but a very risky proposition backing them to come back and win in 7 games in my opinion.  I think many people think these teams are just very closely matched and that points are at a premium and Knicks have never looked fully in control any of these 3 games. I get the so-called analysts feeling this way but I think neither team has played their best game. Think we go back to seeing Spurs dominate on defense and Knicks clean up their defense a bit and force the others to beat them on the road .  And the constant criticism of Brunson and of Coach Mike Brown for not letting KAT handle the ball more is not justified. This is either a game in which Brunson scores 35-40+ and they win a tight game down to the last few minutes  or the Spurs impose their will and dominate tonight and have the whole world thinking NYK is done. 

I don't know-- I get it from an NBA standpoint.. the longer the series, the more revenue especially seeing as ratings are much higher... but the Knicks being relevant is simply good for basketball moving forward and does not mean the Spurs are done moving forward. Wemby will get his... just don't think itll be this year.

@asmth14

 Appreciate you taking the time to explain your thinking and thought process - as you said / should be interesting. 

@CCO687

 Thanks bud and back at ya 

@TheBuddah

 Enjoy the game buddy

@umgmu

 Thanks bud - you too 

I track numbers and don’t watch a lot of games but - wow Harper is simply Awesome!!!!

@TheBuddah

 Nice hit man.

@Parlay_pal

Thanks - it’s never over till it’s over 

Another crazy game glad I took the points .

@TheBuddah

 What a way to win that bet.

@Parlay_pal

 In this life we have chosen it’s never easy .  

@TheBuddah