So this is what I found...
As you know, I have a spreadsheet created that updates player stats on a daily basis. From these stats, I calculate score projections incorporating a large number of statistical, but also situational data points. Well, I also keep a database of how my projections compare to the actual results (this was a recent development). What I noticed was that teams that score over my projected scores tend do continue to do so, and on the flip side, teams that score below my projections, tend to continue to do so. So, when a match comes along where my projections are higher than the game total line, and both teams have a tendency to score above my projections, then it's a easy decision for me. Another situation is for the ATS, when the home team needs to cover points, and I'm showing a good projection for that scenario to occur, and as a bonus: the home team shows a trend of scoring higher than my projections while the visiting team tends to score lower... again, that's a easy decision. This is a system that shows great promise. So, I am testing it tonight.
I will explain the situation for each pick below:
Knicks vs. 76ers
Both teams are on their 2nd game of a back-to-back. The score projection is showing an abysmal Knicks (90.76 - 108.58) 76ers. However, Knicks on their last 3 games have scored 107% of my projections while 76ers have scored 92%. 76ers are also missing Joel Embiid tonight after his shoulder injury last night. The line is +6.5 for the Knicks. Although, I do think this line is somewhat risky, I like low scoring games because getting points matter that much more.
Pick: Knicks +6.5 [2u]
Kings vs. Thunder
Projection: Kings (107.84 - 124.17 ) Thunder
Kings have been scoring an average of 107.5% of my projections in the last 3 games.
Thunder have been scoring an average of 104% of my projections in the last 3 games.
The game projections are already over 232 and the Game Total line is 221. This is a no-brainer to me.
Pick: Kings vs Thunder Game Total Over 221 [2u]
Blazers vs. Pacers
Projection: Blazers (106.99 - 109.88) Pacers
Blazers have been scoring an average of 95.5% of my projections in the last 3 games.
Thunder have been scoring an average of 88% of my projections in the last 3 games.
The games projections are already at a low 217 and the line is set to 218.
Pick: Blazers vs Pacers Game Total Under 218 [2u]
I also have a wager on Ohio State tonight for 10 units. BOL everyone!