Raptors: the +2 makes sense, but the line remains as a question mark for me there considering the game without Siakam should have ended with a closer game, which it hasn't.
Pacers: This is exactly where "motivation" matters and pushes the points higher for the over.
Raptors: the +2 makes sense, but the line remains as a question mark for me there considering the game without Siakam should have ended with a closer game, which it hasn't.
Pacers: This is exactly where "motivation" matters and pushes the points higher for the over.
Clippers +2 & Pelicans Team Total 1st Half o60 Parlay [1u]
It's without question that all four teams tonight will be playing really hard. With that being said, there are 2 main injuries that are on everyone's minds, Brandon Ingram (Pelicans) and Jaylen Brown (Celtics). I am pretty certain that Brandon Ingram will play tonight and uncertain about Jaylen Brown's status based on video interviews posted on Youtube today.
Jaylen's injury is more severe in my opinion, but this uncertainty actually helps in making my pick. Him being available means that he will not be playing at 100% efficiency even if he does play and will most likely hurt the team more than he could help imo. Him not playing also has a similar effect. For this wager's sake, I actually hope he shows up.
In terms of scores, it'll be a tight game, my simulated projection shows (121 - 111) with Jaylen, and (121 - 108) without. However, if both teams focus heavily on their defense, we can see much lower scores, which makes the Clips +2 pts much more valuable.
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Thunder vs Pelicans is going to be a thrilling, entertaining game! If OKC tries to control the pace early in the game, they'll be forced into a very uncomfortable situation and Pelicans can make a bunch of offensive opportunities running them over in the process- as they've done plenty of times to other opponents. For OKC to beat the Pelicans, they will have to fight fire vs fire in the 1st half and pace control in the 2nd. Both teams have the ability, but I will leave it up to Zion, Ingram, and Redick to get the score over 60 in the first half.
Clippers +2 & Pelicans Team Total 1st Half o60 Parlay [1u]
It's without question that all four teams tonight will be playing really hard. With that being said, there are 2 main injuries that are on everyone's minds, Brandon Ingram (Pelicans) and Jaylen Brown (Celtics). I am pretty certain that Brandon Ingram will play tonight and uncertain about Jaylen Brown's status based on video interviews posted on Youtube today.
Jaylen's injury is more severe in my opinion, but this uncertainty actually helps in making my pick. Him being available means that he will not be playing at 100% efficiency even if he does play and will most likely hurt the team more than he could help imo. Him not playing also has a similar effect. For this wager's sake, I actually hope he shows up.
In terms of scores, it'll be a tight game, my simulated projection shows (121 - 111) with Jaylen, and (121 - 108) without. However, if both teams focus heavily on their defense, we can see much lower scores, which makes the Clips +2 pts much more valuable.
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Thunder vs Pelicans is going to be a thrilling, entertaining game! If OKC tries to control the pace early in the game, they'll be forced into a very uncomfortable situation and Pelicans can make a bunch of offensive opportunities running them over in the process- as they've done plenty of times to other opponents. For OKC to beat the Pelicans, they will have to fight fire vs fire in the 1st half and pace control in the 2nd. Both teams have the ability, but I will leave it up to Zion, Ingram, and Redick to get the score over 60 in the first half.
So, while these NBA players are on a much needed All-Star break. I'll pick a single game from NCAAB to post here because I don't want to create a new thread in NCAAB...
I don't have the data to perform the same type of simulation strategy in college basketball. However, I believe I can still pick high win probability matches for my NBA community...
Today we have UNC vs ND
There are 3 "motivation to win" items stacked for Notre Dame
1. Revenge Game
2. Home Game
3. 2 prior losses
Plus, ND has a winning record which tells me that they have the ability to get the job done.
So, while these NBA players are on a much needed All-Star break. I'll pick a single game from NCAAB to post here because I don't want to create a new thread in NCAAB...
I don't have the data to perform the same type of simulation strategy in college basketball. However, I believe I can still pick high win probability matches for my NBA community...
Today we have UNC vs ND
There are 3 "motivation to win" items stacked for Notre Dame
1. Revenge Game
2. Home Game
3. 2 prior losses
Plus, ND has a winning record which tells me that they have the ability to get the job done.
LOL!! After spending several days in the NCAAB forum, I realize how much I love the NBA forum. It's so tame and well mannered. The plays are so much better in quality and depth. It's the being in a western... bullets flying everywhere and no idea who's doing shooting.
I did learn a few tricks though. So, we'll see if they can be applied here.
Back to reality. I'll take a hit on the 1 NCAAB pick that I foolishly mentioned here.
LOL!! After spending several days in the NCAAB forum, I realize how much I love the NBA forum. It's so tame and well mannered. The plays are so much better in quality and depth. It's the being in a western... bullets flying everywhere and no idea who's doing shooting.
I did learn a few tricks though. So, we'll see if they can be applied here.
Back to reality. I'll take a hit on the 1 NCAAB pick that I foolishly mentioned here.
Longest All-Star break Ever~! It's good to be back! It's going to be an awesome week, I can feel it! Bucks -13 & Game Total Over 226 Parlay [1u] Nets v 76ers Game Total Over 214.5 [1u] Bulls -4.5 [2u] Grizzlies -1.5 [1u]
Hey buddy I respect your opinion and would like to hear your thoughts on the Bulls in this spot. I am on the other side.
Longest All-Star break Ever~! It's good to be back! It's going to be an awesome week, I can feel it! Bucks -13 & Game Total Over 226 Parlay [1u] Nets v 76ers Game Total Over 214.5 [1u] Bulls -4.5 [2u] Grizzlies -1.5 [1u]
Hey buddy I respect your opinion and would like to hear your thoughts on the Bulls in this spot. I am on the other side.
When the home team has a record of 5 or more consecutive losses, the home court advantage seems to amp them up to play much better than usual (given that they're capable of doing so). The Bulls are capable of defeating the Hornets. The Bulls game pace is 102.0 vs Charlotte's 98.7. Bulls defense is slightly stronger than Hornets. The score projection is showing Hornets (103 - 116) Bulls.
I am changing my wager though, because I respect you as well and I think this bet is actually safer.
When the home team has a record of 5 or more consecutive losses, the home court advantage seems to amp them up to play much better than usual (given that they're capable of doing so). The Bulls are capable of defeating the Hornets. The Bulls game pace is 102.0 vs Charlotte's 98.7. Bulls defense is slightly stronger than Hornets. The score projection is showing Hornets (103 - 116) Bulls.
I am changing my wager though, because I respect you as well and I think this bet is actually safer.
This is a high probability play for me. When the home team has a record of 5 or more consecutive losses, the home court advantage seems to amp them up to play much better than usual (given that they're capable of doing so). The Bulls are capable of defeating the Hornets. The Bulls game pace is 102.0 vs Charlotte's 98.7. Bulls defense is slightly stronger than Hornets. The score projection is showing Hornets (103 - 116) Bulls. I am changing my wager though, because I respect you as well and I think this bet is actually safer. Bull Team Total Over 207.5 [2u]
Thanks bro!
Good luck tonight.
Honestly don't love tonight's card at all. Gonna take it easy for a couple days. See where the cards fall.
This is a high probability play for me. When the home team has a record of 5 or more consecutive losses, the home court advantage seems to amp them up to play much better than usual (given that they're capable of doing so). The Bulls are capable of defeating the Hornets. The Bulls game pace is 102.0 vs Charlotte's 98.7. Bulls defense is slightly stronger than Hornets. The score projection is showing Hornets (103 - 116) Bulls. I am changing my wager though, because I respect you as well and I think this bet is actually safer. Bull Team Total Over 207.5 [2u]
Thanks bro!
Good luck tonight.
Honestly don't love tonight's card at all. Gonna take it easy for a couple days. See where the cards fall.
I believe MIL tonight is going to push over tonight because they're going full throttle for the 2H of the season. You can't let up on your first game back because you're up 30pts in the 1st half. It wouldn't be surprising to see a +50 pt spread tonight. Reminds me of NCAAB.
I believe MIL tonight is going to push over tonight because they're going full throttle for the 2H of the season. You can't let up on your first game back because you're up 30pts in the 1st half. It wouldn't be surprising to see a +50 pt spread tonight. Reminds me of NCAAB.
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