Alrighty, been sliding over the past few weeks and unable to post with as much consistency, but have a couple today that will hopefully get things rolling in the right direction once again. Haven't looked at the later games yet but have two for the Nets game earlier on.
Bucks @ Nets - Michael Porter Jr over 25.5 points
Pretty simple logic here really. MPJ is playing the best basketball of his career in an increased role with Brooklyn this season, and he has taken things to new heights over the past week or two. His line is set right around his season average (slightly under actually) but in his last four games, he's put up 35, 33, 35 and 34, well over where this line is set. That is in part due to some unsustainable three-point shooting, but not to the extent that it worries me - he's taking 10+ a night and is a 40% shooter normally anyway, so even on average shooting we'd expect him to be hitting a few of them. He's getting bulk looks and shooting with heaps of confidence, and against a Giannis-less Bucks team can hopefully hit 30+ again.
Bucks @ Nets - Danny Wolf over 4.5 rebounds
Bit more of an obscure one here, but one I really like. Danny Wolf has carved out a nice spot in the Nets rotation, averaging a tick under 25 minutes per game in his last six. His stats have been a bit up and down in that time, but he's grabbed at least 4 boards in each game and averaged nearly 6 in that time. The main reason I like this bet, however, is that those numbers aren't reflective of what he is capable of. Wolf is 7-foot tall and over his past two seasons in college, averaged a touch under 10 boards a game in 30 minutes a night. Maybe that won't translate directly to the NBA but rebounds are rebounds no matter what the level of basketball, and in 25 minutes per game he should be expecting a lot more than 4 or 5. I think if he keeps playing these sort of minutes for the rest of the season, he will probably be looking at closer to 6, 7 or 8 a night, so I'm keen to take advantage while the line is low.
Best of luck team, hopefully back on the winners' list for you all today.
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Alrighty, been sliding over the past few weeks and unable to post with as much consistency, but have a couple today that will hopefully get things rolling in the right direction once again. Haven't looked at the later games yet but have two for the Nets game earlier on.
Bucks @ Nets - Michael Porter Jr over 25.5 points
Pretty simple logic here really. MPJ is playing the best basketball of his career in an increased role with Brooklyn this season, and he has taken things to new heights over the past week or two. His line is set right around his season average (slightly under actually) but in his last four games, he's put up 35, 33, 35 and 34, well over where this line is set. That is in part due to some unsustainable three-point shooting, but not to the extent that it worries me - he's taking 10+ a night and is a 40% shooter normally anyway, so even on average shooting we'd expect him to be hitting a few of them. He's getting bulk looks and shooting with heaps of confidence, and against a Giannis-less Bucks team can hopefully hit 30+ again.
Bucks @ Nets - Danny Wolf over 4.5 rebounds
Bit more of an obscure one here, but one I really like. Danny Wolf has carved out a nice spot in the Nets rotation, averaging a tick under 25 minutes per game in his last six. His stats have been a bit up and down in that time, but he's grabbed at least 4 boards in each game and averaged nearly 6 in that time. The main reason I like this bet, however, is that those numbers aren't reflective of what he is capable of. Wolf is 7-foot tall and over his past two seasons in college, averaged a touch under 10 boards a game in 30 minutes a night. Maybe that won't translate directly to the NBA but rebounds are rebounds no matter what the level of basketball, and in 25 minutes per game he should be expecting a lot more than 4 or 5. I think if he keeps playing these sort of minutes for the rest of the season, he will probably be looking at closer to 6, 7 or 8 a night, so I'm keen to take advantage while the line is low.
Best of luck team, hopefully back on the winners' list for you all today.
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