Daily projections (stats university professor) Feb. 15th

Hello all, this is Professor MJ back for my daily projections. No profitable bets yesterday, but we see 9 tonight so buckle up!!  

Here are the full projections from my 5 statistical models:  

IN TERMS OF SPREAD (lines as of 3pm Pinnacle)

Spurs-Magic (projected +9, line +10.5)
Pacers-Cavs (projected -3.5, line -6)
76ers-Celtics (projected -11, line -10)
Hornets-Raptors (projected -4.5, line -6.5)
Bucks-Nets (projected +4.5, line +6)
Mavs-Pistons (projected -5, line -4.5)
Pelicans-Grizzlies (projected -10, line -8)
Heat-Rockets (projected -11, line -10)
Twolves-Nuggets (projected -3.8, line -6)
Blazers-Jazz (projected -7.5, line -8.5)
Lakers-Suns (projected -4.5, line -4)
Knicks-Thunder (projected 5.5, line -7)
Hawks-Clippers (projected -4.5, line -3.5)

IN TERMS OF MONEY LINE

Spurs-Magic (projected -412 +412, line -543 +456)
Pacers-Cavs (projected +155 -155, line +214 -240)
76ers-Celtics (projected +673 -673, line +456 -543)
Hornets-Raptors (projected +180 -180, line +235 -265)
Bucks-Nets (projected -178 +178, line -250 +222)
Mavs-Pistons (projected +204 -204, line +173 -193)
Pelicans-Grizzlies (projected +521 -521, line +301 -345)
Heat-Rockets (projected +650 -650, line +500 -603)
Twolves-Nuggets (projected +160 -160, line +219 -246)
Blazers-Jazz (projected +308 -308, line +358 -415)
Lakers-Suns (projected +186 -186, line +159 -177)
Knicks-Thunder (projected +211 -211, line +256 -290)
Hawks-Clippers (projected +180 -180, line +140 -155)

BOTTOM LINE:

“GREAT BETS” (4 stars / 5): 

- The bet I like the most today is Minnesota (spread +6 or money line +219) with a ROI of about 23%. Yes, they are playing the second of back-to-game games, but even when you take this information into account they still provide good value. The Nuggets are coming off an emotional win against the Warriors despite missing 6 players (3 starters). Tonight they will be without Gallinari, Chandler, Mudiay and Faried (their 1st, 3rd, 6th and 7th best scorers). I expect a letdown, and the numbers indicate to take the Timberwolves. I also like it when the public is betting heavily on a team, yet the line is not moving that much. This is the case, as 82% of the money has been on Denver (as of 3pm). 

- My system is picking the Pacers for a second straight game (after tying a bet at home against the Spurs). Thaddeus Young is out for Indiana, while Love and J.R. Smith are out for Cleveland. I added 4% to Indiana’s chances of winning because of that. I mentioned in a previous post that playing the second of back-to-back games makes a team’s chances of winning 75%-80% of what it would be if rested (according to a Harvard study). After making such an adjustment (Cleveland was playing yesterday), I get winning probabilities of 39.3% for Indiana versus 60.7% for Cleveland. As of 3pm, 75% of the money has been going Cleveland’s way. I like it. Take the Pacers +6 or straight up +214. 

“GOOD BETS” (3 stars / 5): 

- Charlotte is close to being rated 4 stars. The projections assume newly acquired Ibaka has a 50% chance of playing his first game as a Raptor tonight. Like Cleveland, Toronto was playing last night so fatigue might come into play. Both teams have been struggling of late (both on a 3-game losing skid). I expect a dog fight, and a close game. 

- Life without Parker continues for the Bucks. Surprisingly, they have won both games since he got hurt. We expect them to hit a wall tonight. The lowly Nets have lost their last 15 home games, but they have been coming close recently. As a matter of fact, their last 7 home losses have been by single digits. 78% of the money has been going on Milwaukee. Take Brooklyn +6 or straight up +222. 

“OKAY BETS” (2 stars / 5): 

- Take the Knicks +7 (money line +256). If the line moves to +6.5, proceed with caution, or don’t bet at all. 

- The statistical models indicate the Blazers should be underdogs by 7.5, but they can be had at +8.5. The numbers like Portland, and we also note they have beaten Utah 10 of the last 13 games. The Jazz are coming off a brutal game, where we picked the Clippers as a 5 stars bet (they beat the line by 24 points!). 

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5): 

- One of the few favorites that I like tonight is Memphis. They are 8-point favorites, but the statistical models see them as 10-point favorites. New Orleans will be without their third-best scorer Terrence Jones, as well as Dante Cunningham who is 5th in the team for minutes played per game. Memphis has the 3rd best defense in the league (points per game). Take Memphis -8. 

- I’m not extremely confident about this one, but I’m taking the Magic +10.5 at home against the Spurs. Let’s see how Orlando reacts following the Ibaka trade. 

- My last pick of the day: Clippers -3.5 against the Hawks (or -155 straight up, while it should be -180 according to our numbers). LA is missing their second-best scorer Chris Paul, and we accounted for this fact by deducting 7.5% to their chances of winning the game. It still ends up as a profitable bet (ROI 5.8%). If the line gets worse than -160 (i.e. lower than 1.625), don’t bet this game though. 

I hope I was able to bring some insight. Keep gambling fun, and enjoy the games! 

Professor MJ

Thanks for your post and all your work

Nice work/writeup. Do you have a W-L record of your "great bets" by chance?  

Unfortunately I don't!! I've been betting for myself for a long time on different sports, and sorting it out from my Excel file would take weeks. Been posting on different sites for 1-2 week(s) only, with a website of my own and a Facebook group (now around 30 people). I won't pretend I win x% of my picks, I simply don't know. I make projections hoping it helps some people! Have a good night everyone!

Friend requested you professor, would like to get in contact through messaging if possible thanks

Thank you for your work yesterday! 

You're welcome stardove, I do my best!

Professor I respect your picks. Thank you for your work bro.