Quote Originally Posted by J-MoneyMaker:
Not trolling here, just an honest question. Didn't you do a write-up on the Raptors for Game 1 and also make a series bet of Raptors +2 games? Are you just simply changing your stance on things after the way Toronto was beat down in the first 2 games, or what calls for the sudden change? Toronto got thumped in Cleveland in the first 2 games last year too and then managed to hold serve at home. I would say, based on what I saw this week, that probably doesn't happen, but still, I'm confused why you're going back on your initial read so quickly. Just curious to hear your thoughts on that, or if you simply saw what the Raptors attempted in the first 2 games and realized that series bet is completely screwed.
One last question. Seems others have mentioned it already too but I haven't seen your response. The Cavs destroy the Raptors in the first 2 games, Raptors look awful, adjustments aren't working, Lowry/DeRozan have been trash, Lowry might not even play, etc. Why do you think the line is so low still? I agree, it seems like it's Cavs or nothing, but how do the oddsmakers make this line so low in that situation? Makes me want to unload on Cleveland but that line just scares me a little lol
Yes, of course I am changing my stance and yes that bet, likely a loser given this one, is still outstanding. The change in stance is everything in the OP and why.
To the second question, as a general rule if you didn't cap a game fully, look to the line movement for favors. Massive public support typically doesn't hit.
But the line is rising so much here the books will probably lose on the openining line and collect on something like -5 which it might close at. This happens sometimes and the books are reacting accordingly.
You have to understand something about these books. They are set in their ways using archaic line setting methods.
So what was the archaic method they used here?
They took the last game at -8 Cavs in Cleveland and subtracted 6.5 and opened the game at -1.5 for the home/road switch.
-6.5 for the switch is considered VERY LOW for a playoff game (as it can get as high as -10 for the switch to the other city).
So opening the Cavs at -1.5 in Toronto is a very big deal TO THEM because of their antiquated line setting methodology.
But to us? We see -1.5 and only one point on the spread beats us while taking a team that literally violated another the previous two games.
-2.5? Two points beats us? Still a good deal.
Vegas mindset? Old and gray much like Rip Van Winkle
Shrewd Bettie mindset? Ahead of the game, like Biff from Back to the Future bringing a sports almanac back in time.
The books look at -2.5 and start huffing and puffing saying "We got em now! We only adjusted this line 5.5 for home road!!! That's no adjustment at all!!!
I calmly take the Cavs -2.5 and another sip of my lavender tea, hands double clutching my Cavs mug, in my Houston Oiler blue silk bathrobe, all without a worry in the world.
Read the OP bookies. You should have adjusted more upon opening. They're scrambling now to make up for it but we're already locked and loaded. This ain't no Kentucky Derby ticket that changes with the pooled bets baby. No sir.
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