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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Buy Beware on a couple of games.. traps, fishy lines, too good to be true..

    ClarkKentHere
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    ClarkKentHere
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 3:40 PM ET #1

    Let's start with the Wizards at  +1.5.

    Almost everyone here that I've seen likes Wizards, public surely love them yet the Bobcats(with less talent) are favs at home to a team with more talent coming off 3 days rest. The Wizards from games I've seen of them this year are talented, just very young and immature and lack focus to close out games. The Bobcats just plain ole have no luck or talent and horrible managment(Jordan is clearly an idiot). Vegas knows something we don't and in my opinion it might be overthinking it and Vegas wanting us to throw money at the horrible Bobcats.(Opinions)

    Next up is OKC-3

    I see they are a heavy fav coming off a big win against a Raptors team, however if you look at that game they struggled in the f irst half to make shots and the Raptors kept it close. Now they have back to back on the road against a hot Bucks team who has won 5 straight. Yet however the Bucks are not very good against above 500 teams,but only underdog 3 points and hasnt moved yet. This might also be a game where Vegas wants us to overthink it and take the Bucks at home because we over anaylzed it

     

     

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    Let's start with the Wizards at  +1.5.

    Almost everyone here that I've seen likes Wizards, public surely love them yet the Bobcats(with less talent) are favs at home to a team with more talent coming off 3 days rest. The Wizards from games I've seen of them this year are talented, just very young and immature and lack focus to close out games. The Bobcats just plain ole have no luck or talent and horrible managment(Jordan is clearly an idiot). Vegas knows something we don't and in my opinion it might be overthinking it and Vegas wanting us to throw money at the horrible Bobcats.(Opinions)

    Next up is OKC-3

    I see they are a heavy fav coming off a big win against a Raptors team, however if you look at that game they struggled in the f irst half to make shots and the Raptors kept it close. Now they have back to back on the road against a hot Bucks team who has won 5 straight. Yet however the Bucks are not very good against above 500 teams,but only underdog 3 points and hasnt moved yet. This might also be a game where Vegas wants us to overthink it and take the Bucks at home because we over anaylzed it

     

     

     
    MustRisk2Win
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 4:37 PM ET #2

    OKC I will stay away from. I think  Charlotte wins
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    OKC I will stay away from. I think  Charlotte wins
     
    mrod112
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 4:58 PM ET #3

    I'm liking Charlotte  and Milwaukee.    I c u like indiana too?!  
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    I'm liking Charlotte  and Milwaukee.    I c u like indiana too?!  
     
    LVRNCAPPER
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:01 PM ET #4

    Bucks and Hornets are my biggest plays. Public are 1-6 on last two mondays on games where they sit at 70% or more. Both games over 70% public favor. Since when does casino side with you?
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    Bucks and Hornets are my biggest plays. Public are 1-6 on last two mondays on games where they sit at 70% or more. Both games over 70% public favor. Since when does casino side with you?
     
    ZoltanBetting
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:15 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

    Bucks and Hornets are my biggest plays. Public are 1-6 on last two mondays on games where they sit at 70% or more. Both games over 70% public favor. Since when does casino side with you?

    How do you know the 30% side isn't where the sharp/big money is?  Just cause 70% is on one side doesnt mean that side is where all the money is.  Believe me blindly fading the all mighty 70% public number has been tried by many of us here......and it doesnt work.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

    Bucks and Hornets are my biggest plays. Public are 1-6 on last two mondays on games where they sit at 70% or more. Both games over 70% public favor. Since when does casino side with you?

    How do you know the 30% side isn't where the sharp/big money is?  Just cause 70% is on one side doesnt mean that side is where all the money is.  Believe me blindly fading the all mighty 70% public number has been tried by many of us here......and it doesnt work.
     
    LVRNCAPPER
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:25 PM ET #6

    What do you mean? books can move lines and make you think whatever you like.. It can move literally either way for either reason, either money on 1 side and not enuff on the other, or they WANT you to THINK that money has come in 1 side to buy the other. So you can't really tell unless you talk to people now can you?

    I'm just going off recent records, similar to how any gets a stat for trends. These are just recent trends of a different type...Thats all, Yesterday when I did this, I went 6-1-1 Playing the lines, based off of last sunday, and you can look it all up if you'd like, but on sundays Chalk was 4-2-0 on last 2 sundays, and yesterday they went 4-1 (bulls losing) i believe, thats all.... Play who you like, casinos don't lose 2+ public games on 70% thats a fact.
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    What do you mean? books can move lines and make you think whatever you like.. It can move literally either way for either reason, either money on 1 side and not enuff on the other, or they WANT you to THINK that money has come in 1 side to buy the other. So you can't really tell unless you talk to people now can you?

    I'm just going off recent records, similar to how any gets a stat for trends. These are just recent trends of a different type...Thats all, Yesterday when I did this, I went 6-1-1 Playing the lines, based off of last sunday, and you can look it all up if you'd like, but on sundays Chalk was 4-2-0 on last 2 sundays, and yesterday they went 4-1 (bulls losing) i believe, thats all.... Play who you like, casinos don't lose 2+ public games on 70% thats a fact.
     
    LVRNCAPPER
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:27 PM ET #7

    Im not saying favorites don't hit, if theres 6 games with 70%, then you must look at the teams playing individually and find the 1 or 2 favs that will end up covering...Cuz they always do, but your usually safe picking against most and siding with a few. to each his own
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    Im not saying favorites don't hit, if theres 6 games with 70%, then you must look at the teams playing individually and find the 1 or 2 favs that will end up covering...Cuz they always do, but your usually safe picking against most and siding with a few. to each his own
     
    mrod112
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

    What do you mean? books can move lines and make you think whatever you like.. It can move literally either way for either reason, either money on 1 side and not enuff on the other, or they WANT you to THINK that money has come in 1 side to buy the other. So you can't really tell unless you talk to people now can you?

    I'm just going off recent records, similar to how any gets a stat for trends. These are just recent trends of a different type...Thats all, Yesterday when I did this, I went 6-1-1 Playing the lines, based off of last sunday, and you can look it all up if you'd like, but on sundays Chalk was 4-2-0 on last 2 sundays, and yesterday they went 4-1 (bulls losing) i believe, thats all.... Play who you like, casinos don't lose 2+ public games on 70% thats a fact.

    Where do get ur prv percentages from?  
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

    What do you mean? books can move lines and make you think whatever you like.. It can move literally either way for either reason, either money on 1 side and not enuff on the other, or they WANT you to THINK that money has come in 1 side to buy the other. So you can't really tell unless you talk to people now can you?

    I'm just going off recent records, similar to how any gets a stat for trends. These are just recent trends of a different type...Thats all, Yesterday when I did this, I went 6-1-1 Playing the lines, based off of last sunday, and you can look it all up if you'd like, but on sundays Chalk was 4-2-0 on last 2 sundays, and yesterday they went 4-1 (bulls losing) i believe, thats all.... Play who you like, casinos don't lose 2+ public games on 70% thats a fact.

    Where do get ur prv percentages from?  
     
    LVRNCAPPER
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:34 PM ET #9

    https://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

    Just set it to NBA and you can look up any days results from the passed by changing the date, I usually look up the passed games for a certain day and compare it to how the team has done in its last 5 games and of course vs the quality competition and their stats.
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    https://pregame.com/sportsbook_spy/default.aspx

    Just set it to NBA and you can look up any days results from the passed by changing the date, I usually look up the passed games for a certain day and compare it to how the team has done in its last 5 games and of course vs the quality competition and their stats.
     
    SirBruce
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:38 PM ET #10

    interesting LVRNCAPPER....


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    interesting LVRNCAPPER....


     
    LVRNCAPPER
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:42 PM ET #11

    this ofc shows public money, now if you see public is on a side, and the line move still in favor the opposite, id assume thats sharp money and vice versa
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    this ofc shows public money, now if you see public is on a side, and the line move still in favor the opposite, id assume thats sharp money and vice versa
     
    rastad
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 5:55 PM ET #12

    New Orleans & Milwaukee might be plays this evening
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    New Orleans & Milwaukee might be plays this evening
     
    Quantum_Leap
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:11 PM ET #13

    I think the Nuggets are a trap play. Sharps are hitting the Warriors at one site, and it has more action than other games.

    #513 9:05pm Warriors vs Nuggets Nuggets 6.69%
    Warriors 93.31%
    5736 Bets

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    I think the Nuggets are a trap play. Sharps are hitting the Warriors at one site, and it has more action than other games.

    #513 9:05pm Warriors vs Nuggets Nuggets 6.69%
    Warriors 93.31%
    5736 Bets

     
    eliminat0r85
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:30 PM ET #14

    the charlotte game looks like a trap but i dont know how else vegas is supposed to play it, charlotte is just a bad team and they are so inconsistent, wizards have been battling lately, might be looking ahead to the magic though.

    I think vegas put the line the only place the could put it. Bobcats as marginal favorites. Bobcats haven't won a game in a little while so its tough for me to want to back a squad on a 11 game losing streak. Wizards or no play on that one.
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    the charlotte game looks like a trap but i dont know how else vegas is supposed to play it, charlotte is just a bad team and they are so inconsistent, wizards have been battling lately, might be looking ahead to the magic though.

    I think vegas put the line the only place the could put it. Bobcats as marginal favorites. Bobcats haven't won a game in a little while so its tough for me to want to back a squad on a 11 game losing streak. Wizards or no play on that one.
     
    veezee
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:38 PM ET #15

    That is what I was thinking yesterday taking Phil against heavy public Bos.   look waht happen.
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    That is what I was thinking yesterday taking Phil against heavy public Bos.   look waht happen.
     
    ZoltanBetting
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:38 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

    What do you mean? books can move lines and make you think whatever you like.. It can move literally either way for either reason, either money on 1 side and not enuff on the other, or they WANT you to THINK that money has come in 1 side to buy the other. So you can't really tell unless you talk to people now can you?

    I'm just going off recent records, similar to how any gets a stat for trends. These are just recent trends of a different type...Thats all, Yesterday when I did this, I went 6-1-1 Playing the lines, based off of last sunday, and you can look it all up if you'd like, but on sundays Chalk was 4-2-0 on last 2 sundays, and yesterday they went 4-1 (bulls losing) i believe, thats all.... Play who you like, casinos don't lose 2+ public games on 70% thats a fact.

    Well I wasnt sure if you were trying to follow the big money or just simply fading the public. Got it though, good luck. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by LVRNCAPPER:

    What do you mean? books can move lines and make you think whatever you like.. It can move literally either way for either reason, either money on 1 side and not enuff on the other, or they WANT you to THINK that money has come in 1 side to buy the other. So you can't really tell unless you talk to people now can you?

    I'm just going off recent records, similar to how any gets a stat for trends. These are just recent trends of a different type...Thats all, Yesterday when I did this, I went 6-1-1 Playing the lines, based off of last sunday, and you can look it all up if you'd like, but on sundays Chalk was 4-2-0 on last 2 sundays, and yesterday they went 4-1 (bulls losing) i believe, thats all.... Play who you like, casinos don't lose 2+ public games on 70% thats a fact.

    Well I wasnt sure if you were trying to follow the big money or just simply fading the public. Got it though, good luck. 
     
    wizardofroz
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:55 PM ET #17

    I will take Charlotte or pass, but I am trouble finding good reasons to take them.  Both teams blow, but Washington has already beaten them twice this year.

    Augustin is supposed to be out for Charlotte, but Nene and Booker may not play for Washington. 

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    I will take Charlotte or pass, but I am trouble finding good reasons to take them.  Both teams blow, but Washington has already beaten them twice this year.

    Augustin is supposed to be out for Charlotte, but Nene and Booker may not play for Washington. 

     
    wizardofroz
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 6:56 PM ET #18

    I hate going against the old gambling axiom which states, "never put good money on bad teams", and both teams are horrid.
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    I hate going against the old gambling axiom which states, "never put good money on bad teams", and both teams are horrid.
     
    wizardofroz
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 7:05 PM ET #19

    I went with Charlotte -1/2 in the first half.
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    I went with Charlotte -1/2 in the first half.
     
     
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    Posted: Apr. 9, 2012 - 7:55 PM ET #20

    I will bite on OKC...Milwaukee's record vs playoff teams is just horrible...
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    I will bite on OKC...Milwaukee's record vs playoff teams is just horrible...
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