'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NCAAB: 5-1 (83.3%) +3.90u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL-P: 3-2 (60.0%) +0.70u
'11-12 NBA: 11-12 (47.8%) -0.15u
New York @ Memphis Over 194 (-110)
The last two times these teams met the total came in at an average of 212 and both times they sailed over coming in at 219 in New York and 218 in Memphis. Are these teams really 18 points less offensively proficient this season? Neither team made any major changes to their roster.. so why the big line drop? I think it has a lot to do with the Knicks inability to generate offense in their last two games scoring 91 against Charlotte's last ranked defense and 85 against a top ranked Philly defense. Same story for Memphis. They're averaging 88 points per game in their last four and they've lost three in a row. This perception has created value on the over. So if the perception is that neither team can score, what's the reality? Well for starters, neither team matches up well with the other defensively. Memphis takes more than half of their shots from inside 9 feet. They take the 4th most shots at the rim (24 per game) while the Knicks allow the 6th highest FG% in this zone (66.7%). The Knicks on the other hand love the long ball attempting 23 threes per game (third most in the NBA) while Memphis concedes over 7 made threes per game (4th most in the NBA). Besides defensive match-ups, pace is another contributing factor to over bets. Both teams are in the top 7 in the NBA in pace and Memphis seems to run even more at home where they average 104 points per game. The Knicks are on a back-to-back after a huge win at home against rival Philadelphia so fatigue may be a bit of an issue. They also may be looking ahead to Oklahoma City on Saturday. This will likely manifest tonight as a lack of defensive energy. Nobody on the Knicks roster is a very talented defender so without defensive effort Memphis should be able to pick their number in what looks like a fast paced game on paper. I like Memphis to win in a high scoring game at home (I also lean there way to cover the 4 point spread) Memphis 108 New York 99