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'10-11 NBA: 90-67 (57.3%) +19.90u
'10-11 NBA-P: 30-16 (65.2%) +18.25u
'10-11 NCAAB: 8-1 (88.9%) +7.90u
'10-11 NHL-P: 11-4 (73.3%) +7.00u
'10-11 MLB: 97-66 (59.8%) +31.61u
'10-11 MLB-P: 9-3 (75.0%) +9.22u
'11-12 NCAAF: 16-21 (43.2%) -7.40u'11-12 NFL: 42-35-1 (54.5%) +5.05u
'11-12 NCAAB: 5-1 (83.3%) +3.90u
'11-12 NCAAF-P: 9-6 (60.0%) +1.65u
'11-12 NFL-P: 3-2 (60.0%) +0.70u
'11-12 NBA: 10-11 (47.6%) -0.05u
Atlanta @ Indiana Under 183 (-110)
Both teams had yesterday off so they should be fresh for this contest. Also, neither team should be looking past this game since Atlanta plays Charlotte tomorrow and Indiana has the day off before traveling to Toronto on Friday. Atlanta is coming off of three wins and an overtime loss to Miami so they're playing good basketball. Two of they Pacers 3 losses were on the road against Philadelphia and on the road against Miami (two of the best teams in the East). Still, they boast a 6-3 record that includes a road win in Boston and an undefeated home record. According to my power rankings they're 8th in the east while Atlanta is 9th. This is a crucial match-up that may have playoff implications down the line. With rest before this game, I expect a high level of intensity by both teams in what is setting up to be a battle for the 8th seed in the east. Even in January, you should see a hint of playoff atmosphere tonight. Here's where the total comes into play: Atlanta is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency and Indiana is ranked 4th. Also both teams are in the bottom third of the league in pace. This means you can expect a slow half court game with both teams emphasizing the defensive side of the ball. According to my model a fair value for this total is 174.5. At 183 you have 8.5 points of value - that's 4 full baskets. The only thing concerns me is overtime.. otherwise this game should sail under. Pacers win in a close low scoring battle.
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