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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Your Thoughts on Adjusted Lines Parlays

    HoneyBadger21
    jstaley12
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    Views: 1009
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    HoneyBadger21
    HoneyBadger21
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2015
    Posts: 19
    Posted: Aug. 14, 2015 - 4:55 AM ET #1

    I've just been experimenting recently with ways to increase my win rate without the huge swings.  They say I believe that you need something like 53% to make a profit.  Enter Adjusted run lines parlays.  It's pretty pointless to do just one adjusted run line bet because of how high the juice usually is.  However, if you find an underdog you expect to win or a favorite you believe isn't being given enough credit, why not combine them into one safer bet?  We all have the experience of thinking we know an underdog will win or a favorite can't lose only to see them lose by 1 or 2 runs and us feeling like shit.  I think I can make Adjusted run line parlays with a 60% win rate minimum.  Here are some examples from my 2/2 day.

     Result: Wager Won

    Reds (K Sampson) 10 vs Dodgers (M Latos) 3 08/13/15 22:10 EDT
    Reds (K Sampson) +2.5 (-250)

    -Like most of you I distrusted Latos...ya you could definitely take the reds to win.  But if you take two underdogs to win and hit 1/2 you usually just break even or win a small profit.  I figured at the very worst reds would keep it close.

    Here were my projections:
    CIN chances of winning 50% + chances of losing by 2 or less 30%= 80%.  Meanwhile the book was laying me -250 which is only about 70%.  Clearly a winning bet, but hard to make much on its own which is why I combined it with this one: 


    Angels (G Richards) @ Royals (J Guthrie) - Adjusted Runline B - Listed Pitchers
    Angels (G Richards) 7 vs Royals (J Guthrie) 6 08/13/15 20:10 EDT
    Royals (J Guthrie) +2.5 (-270)

    KC was at home and playing well.  LAA hadn't done shit on the road and I believe were juiced just cuz of the pitcher matchup.

    Projections:

    (im rounding to make it easier)

    KC chances of winning: 45% + chances of losing by 2 or less 35%= 80%.

    So in conclusion, we believe both bets based on research carry an 80% success rate compared to the juice which was only in the 70%...80% x 80% = An astonishing 64%.  Now compares that to your favorite O/U play of the day standing alone.  Did you even believe it was 60% chances of success?

    Combined, the bookie offered me a very generous -113 for the parlay.  I took it happily.  Would love to hear comments...I am looking at Price +1.5 tomorrow to combine with another.  Below is another successful parlay I had today based on my research and formula.  It just seems like a good way to take some of the luck and variance out of baseball betting...BOL

    7. Bet#: 474341736
    Parlay (2 Teams) Result: Wager Won
    Brewers (T Cravy) @ Cubs (J Lester) - Adjusted Runline A - Listed Pitchers
    Brewers (T Cravy) 2 vs Cubs (J Lester) 9 08/13/15 14:20 EDT
    Cubs (J Lester) +1.5 (-370)
    Athletics (J Chavez) @ Blue Jays (M Buehrle) - Adjusted Runline A - Listed Pitchers
    Athletics (J Chavez) 2 vs Blue Jays (M Buehrle) 4 08/13/15 12:35 EDT
    Blue Jays (M Buehrle) +1.5 (-330)

    Reply
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    I've just been experimenting recently with ways to increase my win rate without the huge swings.  They say I believe that you need something like 53% to make a profit.  Enter Adjusted run lines parlays.  It's pretty pointless to do just one adjusted run line bet because of how high the juice usually is.  However, if you find an underdog you expect to win or a favorite you believe isn't being given enough credit, why not combine them into one safer bet?  We all have the experience of thinking we know an underdog will win or a favorite can't lose only to see them lose by 1 or 2 runs and us feeling like shit.  I think I can make Adjusted run line parlays with a 60% win rate minimum.  Here are some examples from my 2/2 day.

     Result: Wager Won

    Reds (K Sampson) 10 vs Dodgers (M Latos) 3 08/13/15 22:10 EDT
    Reds (K Sampson) +2.5 (-250)

    -Like most of you I distrusted Latos...ya you could definitely take the reds to win.  But if you take two underdogs to win and hit 1/2 you usually just break even or win a small profit.  I figured at the very worst reds would keep it close.

    Here were my projections:
    CIN chances of winning 50% + chances of losing by 2 or less 30%= 80%.  Meanwhile the book was laying me -250 which is only about 70%.  Clearly a winning bet, but hard to make much on its own which is why I combined it with this one: 


    Angels (G Richards) @ Royals (J Guthrie) - Adjusted Runline B - Listed Pitchers
    Angels (G Richards) 7 vs Royals (J Guthrie) 6 08/13/15 20:10 EDT
    Royals (J Guthrie) +2.5 (-270)

    KC was at home and playing well.  LAA hadn't done shit on the road and I believe were juiced just cuz of the pitcher matchup.

    Projections:

    (im rounding to make it easier)

    KC chances of winning: 45% + chances of losing by 2 or less 35%= 80%.

    So in conclusion, we believe both bets based on research carry an 80% success rate compared to the juice which was only in the 70%...80% x 80% = An astonishing 64%.  Now compares that to your favorite O/U play of the day standing alone.  Did you even believe it was 60% chances of success?

    Combined, the bookie offered me a very generous -113 for the parlay.  I took it happily.  Would love to hear comments...I am looking at Price +1.5 tomorrow to combine with another.  Below is another successful parlay I had today based on my research and formula.  It just seems like a good way to take some of the luck and variance out of baseball betting...BOL

    7. Bet#: 474341736
    Parlay (2 Teams) Result: Wager Won
    Brewers (T Cravy) @ Cubs (J Lester) - Adjusted Runline A - Listed Pitchers
    Brewers (T Cravy) 2 vs Cubs (J Lester) 9 08/13/15 14:20 EDT
    Cubs (J Lester) +1.5 (-370)
    Athletics (J Chavez) @ Blue Jays (M Buehrle) - Adjusted Runline A - Listed Pitchers
    Athletics (J Chavez) 2 vs Blue Jays (M Buehrle) 4 08/13/15 12:35 EDT
    Blue Jays (M Buehrle) +1.5 (-330)

     
    HoneyBadger21
    HoneyBadger21
    Prospect
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jun, 2015
    Posts: 19
    Posted: Aug. 14, 2015 - 4:59 AM ET #2

    The other good thing with Adjusted run parlays is they rarely change much as they aren't usually released till the day of the games and you get to see the lineups etc. before you place the bet.  Just another way to minimize the risk.

    Another good thing to look at for these is when two teams are basically even money.  I'm not saying I would do this bet but tomorrow the cubs are at the white sox.  Cubs are -115 and Sox are -105...Samardizja +2.5? combined with Price +1.5...just a thought.  I have to research the white sox cubs matchup more thought buts thats another way to approach it.
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    The other good thing with Adjusted run parlays is they rarely change much as they aren't usually released till the day of the games and you get to see the lineups etc. before you place the bet.  Just another way to minimize the risk.

    Another good thing to look at for these is when two teams are basically even money.  I'm not saying I would do this bet but tomorrow the cubs are at the white sox.  Cubs are -115 and Sox are -105...Samardizja +2.5? combined with Price +1.5...just a thought.  I have to research the white sox cubs matchup more thought buts thats another way to approach it.
     
     
    jstaley12
    jstaley12
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Jan, 2012
    Posts: 1233
    Posted: Aug. 14, 2015 - 10:14 AM ET #3

    You make a compelling arguement, but I personally know many of the best handicappers in the business, and there is really one primary common thread, every one of them patiently wait for their spots, and pull the trigger aggressively on straight (single) Money Line plays.  That concept alone has afforded me my lifestyle for many years, and the ONLY way I (or they) parlay, is to offset heavy juice for a close to even money parlay.  BOL to you 
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    You make a compelling arguement, but I personally know many of the best handicappers in the business, and there is really one primary common thread, every one of them patiently wait for their spots, and pull the trigger aggressively on straight (single) Money Line plays.  That concept alone has afforded me my lifestyle for many years, and the ONLY way I (or they) parlay, is to offset heavy juice for a close to even money parlay.  BOL to you 
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