out of the 12 games played yesterday, 6 of them were 1 run wins.
I totally get wagering the RL to bring juice down
Have any of you guys had very good luck?
What measures & metrics do you use when taking RL ?
Thanks -C34
out of the 12 games played yesterday, 6 of them were 1 run wins.
I totally get wagering the RL to bring juice down
Have any of you guys had very good luck?
What measures & metrics do you use when taking RL ?
Thanks -C34
out of the 12 games played yesterday, 6 of them were 1 run wins.
I totally get wagering the RL to bring juice down
Have any of you guys had very good luck?
What measures & metrics do you use when taking RL ?
Thanks -C34
I take run lines after good/great teams get smashed or shutout.
I also rarely do high juice unless I'm doing a 2 team parlay such as KC ml/LAD ml last night( dodgers were only -130 and KC -250).
It was +147
I take run lines after good/great teams get smashed or shutout.
I also rarely do high juice unless I'm doing a 2 team parlay such as KC ml/LAD ml last night( dodgers were only -130 and KC -250).
It was +147
That makes sense.
BOL today
That makes sense.
BOL today
This type of wager is used way more to just cut the juice down than it really should be by bettors, in my opinion.
This can be more of a +EV play than the Moneyline wager often. That is the situation where it should really be used.
There are very many things to consider.
For example, it is usually better to not play the home favorite on the Runline — simply because if they have only an 1 run lead after the top of the ninth, they obviously, will not play the bottom of the ninth.
Nearly 30% of all MLB games end within 1 run.
Underdogs will cover the Runline slightly over 58% and home underdogs will cover slightly better than that.
Because of this the underdogs will generally have worse odds than the favorites will.
Ultimately, it will come down to where you perceive value, especially +EV after you do your research.
Sometimes there will be better value on an alternate Runline, depending on the situation and your research on the game.
Nowadays there seems to be some value on the first 5 innings Runlines. This is because the starting pitchers are not going past 5 or 6 innings now. The teams now will use 5 or 6 more pitchers. Now the odds are more in favor of a team finding one of the pitchers to hit well against. This can easily mess up a Runline wager for a full game that was looking good before the starters were taken out.
Besides the starting pitchers, the bullpens have to be considered more now than before.
The teams current forms have to be factored in, along with any other trends, revenge factors, or anything else that might matter.
This type of wager is used way more to just cut the juice down than it really should be by bettors, in my opinion.
This can be more of a +EV play than the Moneyline wager often. That is the situation where it should really be used.
There are very many things to consider.
For example, it is usually better to not play the home favorite on the Runline — simply because if they have only an 1 run lead after the top of the ninth, they obviously, will not play the bottom of the ninth.
Nearly 30% of all MLB games end within 1 run.
Underdogs will cover the Runline slightly over 58% and home underdogs will cover slightly better than that.
Because of this the underdogs will generally have worse odds than the favorites will.
Ultimately, it will come down to where you perceive value, especially +EV after you do your research.
Sometimes there will be better value on an alternate Runline, depending on the situation and your research on the game.
Nowadays there seems to be some value on the first 5 innings Runlines. This is because the starting pitchers are not going past 5 or 6 innings now. The teams now will use 5 or 6 more pitchers. Now the odds are more in favor of a team finding one of the pitchers to hit well against. This can easily mess up a Runline wager for a full game that was looking good before the starters were taken out.
Besides the starting pitchers, the bullpens have to be considered more now than before.
The teams current forms have to be factored in, along with any other trends, revenge factors, or anything else that might matter.
Tonight there are 4 games that might be considered.
Philadelphia, because they are hot, have a good pitcher on the road, and Detroit is not good against the Runline at home.
The Yankees are unique because it is the same city. However, the Yankees are good on the Runline on the road and the Mets are bad on the Runline at home. But it is the same city and the Mets have a left-handed home dog pitching — which is an opposing and better +EV trend.
However, WAS/SD and the MIA/KC games are interesting to look at on the Runlines:
San Diego overall is +1.65U and +1.63% ROI. WAS is +11.73U and +11.53% ROI.
BUT at home San Diego is -10.95U and -21.58% ROI. WAS away is +10.25U and +17.86% ROI.
KC overall is +2.59U and +2.35% ROI. MIA is -27.46U and -25.55% ROI.
BUT at home KC is +6.34U and +12.10% ROI. MIA away is -8.46U and -16.98% ROI.
Then you might want to look at whether a team just beat that team by more than 1 run the day before. Sometimes, they may be slack the next day or the other team more motivated.
Has one of the teams been covering the Runline more than the other team lately.
You would also want to compare the ML and RL odds currently and see if there might be a discrepancy somewhere.
If you have multiple books, you want to look for the best lines, of course.
If you know what you want and think the line will move against you — take the earliest line you can get. If you think it will move in your favor, wait to see if you can get a better line.
For example, I knew I wanted LAD and HOU on the RL today. So, I played them as soon as possible last night. Pinnacle last night had LAD -124 and HOU -111. They are now -129 and -118. These small changes can have an effect on what you theorize might be +EV.
Over a long season all of this adds up and it matters how accurate you are in all of these in total.
Sorry that was so long and overly detailed. Even though there can be way more to it. That is some of the things I consider.
Tonight there are 4 games that might be considered.
Philadelphia, because they are hot, have a good pitcher on the road, and Detroit is not good against the Runline at home.
The Yankees are unique because it is the same city. However, the Yankees are good on the Runline on the road and the Mets are bad on the Runline at home. But it is the same city and the Mets have a left-handed home dog pitching — which is an opposing and better +EV trend.
However, WAS/SD and the MIA/KC games are interesting to look at on the Runlines:
San Diego overall is +1.65U and +1.63% ROI. WAS is +11.73U and +11.53% ROI.
BUT at home San Diego is -10.95U and -21.58% ROI. WAS away is +10.25U and +17.86% ROI.
KC overall is +2.59U and +2.35% ROI. MIA is -27.46U and -25.55% ROI.
BUT at home KC is +6.34U and +12.10% ROI. MIA away is -8.46U and -16.98% ROI.
Then you might want to look at whether a team just beat that team by more than 1 run the day before. Sometimes, they may be slack the next day or the other team more motivated.
Has one of the teams been covering the Runline more than the other team lately.
You would also want to compare the ML and RL odds currently and see if there might be a discrepancy somewhere.
If you have multiple books, you want to look for the best lines, of course.
If you know what you want and think the line will move against you — take the earliest line you can get. If you think it will move in your favor, wait to see if you can get a better line.
For example, I knew I wanted LAD and HOU on the RL today. So, I played them as soon as possible last night. Pinnacle last night had LAD -124 and HOU -111. They are now -129 and -118. These small changes can have an effect on what you theorize might be +EV.
Over a long season all of this adds up and it matters how accurate you are in all of these in total.
Sorry that was so long and overly detailed. Even though there can be way more to it. That is some of the things I consider.
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