Random Thoughts on MLB Season and Final Numbers

2026     754-751      +1709

2025     761-692      +3603

2024   1132-1033    +5471

2023     959-928     +2587

2022     704-603     +8264

 I always try to end MLB around Labor Day Week or at least ease up a lot because Soccer and NFL are starting up and things change in MLB going into September and the end of the season.

   This year on 8/31 this was at:  647-616       +4143

   Some folks have asked the reasons for starting late and ending early.

   I decided to continue on through the season with the same models and it worked out as poorly as expected and like it has previously.

   So, I wanted to repost a couple of the things I have posted about the ‘September Effect”.   

   When your top play is an under and it is 1-1 going into the 10th inning and they score 7 runs in the 10th to go over -- then it just is not your night.  Then you have Baltimore that cannot score more than 2 or 3 runs in 3 games in Colorado.  Then the one game they do score 5 runs they have to do it in the 10th inning.  Then they give up 3 in the bottom of the 10th to lose the game as well to one of the worst teams while they are fighting for a playoff spot.

   These are simply the things that happen in MLB over a long season.        The value is on unders a lot and the extra innings fake runners can kill that.  This coupled with the way so many pitchers are used now that 'force' a manger to gamble on the next pitcher he uses being able to continue to shut down a team that the previous 1, 2, or 3 pitchers have shut down.  The deeper you get into the weaker pitchers the more likely MLB starters will be able to hit them.

   Then you have the 'September Effect' coming with all of those variables coupled with 'tax season' when the favorites will be charged extra juice.

   This is not complaints.  It is just to point out the reasons that there can be wild swings in MLB.  It is already the hardest sport for the better team to win in.  For example, in MLB the outcome of a game is the most random of any other sport.  It is much closer to a coin flip than others are.  In the NFL the better team will win a tad over 58%, NBA, 58%, soccer a bit over 57%, NHL a bit over 55%.  In MLB the better team will win only 53.5% of the time.  So, you are already having to pick edges where a coin flip is almost as good.

If you strip the luck out of each sport and compare the teams in each sport to see how far apart the teams are you will see on a bell curve almost all teams in MLB are between 38% - 62%.  NFL for comparison is 21% - 79%.  So, MLB teams are stacked well on top of each other.

NFL teams are spread across the entire field.  

   Reasons for this are not just how much better the teams are themselves.  But how much the games themselves bounce around.  

   In MLB, the better team is 0.7 runs better.  Even in soccer a much lower scoring game the better team is 0.73 goals better.  In the NFL the better team is 5.79 points better.  

   The swings, or bounces, in an MLB is about 4.35 runs.  This is variance on just luck or bad hops, a windy night, a locked in guy, etc. Soccer will bounce by only 1.82 goals.  NFL will swing by only 14.72 points.

   So, it may be the same weight on a coin, but MLB shakes the entire table by about 2.5 times harder.

   A major reason is that the best players have a much smaller effect on the outcomes of a game than in other sports.

In NFL one player can be 22% of the entire team. NBA 19%.  In the MLB it is only 13% of the time.  The best pitcher will start 18% of the games, your best hitter takes 11% of all the at-bats.  Even 9-man split is like 11%.  For example, you cannot bat someone like Aaron Judge four times in a row but Josh Allen touches the ball every offensive play.  Pitchers need four days of rest.

   But in the NBA, NFL, NHL, or Soccer you can much easily funnel the whole game through your best player.  MLB is the only sport where the rules stop you from doing that.  

   You can see this when you analyze how often the best team in each sport win the title.  In MLB it is once every 6 years, in NFL it is every 4.7 years, in NBA it is every 2.8 years, in Soccer it is every 1.9 years.

So, you need to understand the variance in the MLB's long season and why that variance is there to start with.  Then you need to understand why late in the season as teams experiment and playoffs are already more decided and the variance is even more exaggerated.

   If you cannot understand or deal with this it can make it very frustrating.

   It is also one of the reasons to be very careful going into September.

This mostly still holds true and I wanted to repost it and adda couple of things:

  I think this was a very nice season, with a lot of interesting things happening throughout. I like that, for some teams, it came down to the last day of the season.

   There are many things I like about baseball: the traditions, the numbers associated with players and teams, the strategy and nuance, and the suspense. A team is never really out of it until the last out is recorded.

   Like they say: “You don’t watch baseball. You experience it — like a long summer day.”

   But there are still a few things that I do not like, both as a fan and as someone who wagers on the game.

   I still do not like the phantom runner rule in extra innings. I understand why MLB introduced it.

   I also do not like the limit on the number of times a pitcher can throw over to first base. I understand the reasoning behind this rule as well.

   With the phantom runner rule, we are seeing 15–20% more scoring in extra-inning games, and those games are about 10–15 minutes shorter.

   The strategy has also strayed from the traditional approach.

The home-field advantage in extra innings has now shifted:

Visiting teams have a 477–465 record in extra innings since the ghost runner rule was introduced.

   Prior to that, from 2017 through 2019, home teams had an advantage. They won 312 extra-inning games and lost 294 during that span.

   All in all, the evidence suggests that the phantom runner rule has reduced the home team's traditional extra-inning advantage and provided a slight benefit to visiting teams. The shift is not dramatic, but it is statistically noticeable.

   Although fan interest has increased slightly since the introduction of this rule, there is no solid evidence that the rule itself is responsible for that increase or, if it is, how much of the increase can be attributed to it.

   I understand and appreciate analytics overall, but I do not like some of the effects I see as negative.

   I have always maintained that analytics are much more useful in MLB because of the longer season, the greater number of games, and the larger number of situations in which results can average out over time.             In the NFL, with its much shorter season, the consequences of an individual decision can be far more significant.

   For example, analytics might tell a coach to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the opponent's 35-yard line. But a team will have only a handful of comparable opportunities during a season. A team that is not very good may fail to convert those attempts, and the consequences can be significant. One failed attempt could cost the team a game, contribute to a losing season, and ultimately lead to a coach being fired.

   In MLB, these opportunities are far more numerous. Strategies that are considered more efficient can be implemented over hundreds of games, reducing variability and maximizing expected results. However, these strategies can also come at the expense of some of the excitement that fans enjoy.

   There are more strikeouts and home runs, but fewer balls in play and fewer stolen bases.

   As a result, some of the excitement is lost because there is less action between the bigger moments.

There is also a sense that managers are no longer making decisions based on their own gut feelings or instincts, but are instead following the GM's direction and the recommendations of statistical analysts and their situational spreadsheets.

   The game has become about much more than simply playing the odds in certain situations. Teams have become increasingly reliant on numbers and strategies that may work better for one team and its players than for another. Yet these strategies are often applied across the league as if the same approach should work for everyone in a given situation.

   Now, managers are pulling their pitchers far more frequently. They do not want a starting pitcher to face the opposing lineup for a third time.

Pitchers are increasingly being trained to throw as hard as possible rather than to develop the full range of skills needed to pitch effectively. They are not given as many opportunities to pitch their way out of trouble.

   This has led to greater reliance on the bullpen and increased demands on pitching staffs. There is also concern that these changes may be contributing to pitching injuries. However, there is no solid evidence that the reduction in innings pitched by starting pitchers, who already have multiple days off between starts, has resulted in fewer injuries.

   Managers are also increasingly reluctant to let a pitcher continue when he has a chance to throw a no-hitter, complete a game, or finish with a one- or two-hitter.

   Hitters, meanwhile, are increasingly focused on exit velocity and launch angles rather than on making contact, moving runners, and taking what the defense gives them.

   I understand why MLB banned the shift, although I do not necessarily agree with the decision. I would prefer to see teams teach their hitters to hit the ball away from the shift rather than eliminate the defensive strategy altogether.

I understand the purpose of the pitch clock, but I do not entirely agree with it either. I concede that it has reduced the length of games. I just do not like the idea of introducing a clock into a sport that has traditionally been played without one.

   Meanwhile, the time saved by the pitch clock can be offset by the increased frequency of pitching changes.

   The more often you change pitchers, the more opportunities you create for a reliever who is not on his game or who happens to be a favorable matchup for the opposing hitters to lose the game.

   Far too often, a pitcher will be removed after allowing a hit, only for the next pitcher to walk a batter or give up another hit, followed by a two- or three-run home run.

   Even when a middle reliever has just completed a solid 1-2-3 inning, he may be replaced the following inning. The next pitcher, who may not be as sharp or effective, can promptly get into trouble.

   The bottom line is that when starting hitters face a succession of relief pitchers, the quality of the pitching can decline as the game progresses. This can increase the likelihood that variability will play a significant role in the outcome of a particular game.

   All it takes is for one of those less-effective pitchers to have an off day for an elite hitter or two to take advantage of a poor pitch or two.

From a wagering perspective, these changes have created complications, but they have also introduced their own unique challenges and opportunities.

   As I often point out, you want to bet into positive expected value situations whenever possible while avoiding negative expected value situations.

   If you are someone who looks for value in starting pitching, you have to seriously consider betting the first five innings rather than the full game. That way, you are much more likely to have the starting pitcher on the mound for the entire duration of your wager.

 But what happens if your starting pitcher gives up a homerun early? Can you rely on his offense to overcome that deficit over five innings, or do you need the full nine innings for the team to recover? With a full-game wager, your starting pitcher will no longer be on the mound for the final innings. Are you willing to rely on a bullpen that may not be as good as the starting pitcher you wanted to wager on in the first place?

The same considerations apply to totals.

   What if you see value in an under because of a particular starting pitcher, but he gives up a couple of runs early? If his team also scores, the first-five-innings total could go over. However, if you had bet the full-game under, the scoring might settle down for the remainder of the game, allowing the total to stay under despite the early runs. Of course, that also means relying on the bullpen to keep the opposing team from scoring.

   The same considerations apply when betting unders in close games. When a game remains close late, there is always the possibility that it will go to extra innings. If that happens, you face the additional risk created by the phantom runner rule.

   Those who bet overs can point to situations in which the rule has helped them. However, if a bet needs extra innings to go over, it is worth examining whether the wager offered positive expected value in the first place. Needing extra innings to cash does not automatically make a bet negative expected value, but it does highlight the importance of accounting for the possibility of extra innings when evaluating a total.

   You should not have to rely on overtime or extra innings to bail you out. It is certainly nice when it happens, but you should evaluate your initial wager based on the expected outcome within regulation or nine innings, while also accounting for the possibility of overtime or extra innings.

   The same principle applies when betting a side that you believe offers positive expected value.

   If you take the home team and it falls behind early, does betting the first five innings cause you to give up some of the value you would have had by backing a better team over a full nine innings?

   And if the game remains close and goes to extra innings, you now lose the traditional home-field advantage you would otherwise have had. Under the phantom runner rule, the home team may actually be at a disadvantage compared with what that advantage would have been under the old rules.

   These are all things that have to be considered and the dynamics of how to consider taking advantage of these have certainly changed going forward.

So, I am looking forward to an exciting Postseason.

BOL to all in the Playoffs.

@Raiders22

 Good job 

 Enjoyed the read. Thanks!

@Raiders22

Great read