Quick thoughts

This game jumped out to me more than any other, how is a team who is nearly 20 over at home a dog?  Line is telling me they get smoked, not buying it and like Texas -1.5.

If Dr. Chau was on the mound tomorrow I would still like the Bucs.  Dave Bush should never be a road fav, yes I know the numbers between both teams vs each other and mean nothing. 

Jesse Litsch as a road fav, cmon now.  This team is on my fade list 2nd half, the Jays and will finish the year 20 under and will fading this team more than any other till the season is over.

Cubs as a huge fav at home, LMFAO.  As a -180 fav or higher this year they are a Cub like fashion 2-5.  Couple of those were higher than -200.  This is an auto fade for me with these ass clowns laying this kind of chalk.  May look into alt RL here.

Cleveland will be on my list of teams to take 2nd half, I really like this team and think they will play well.   Nice value here.

Fish/Rox under.  Combined ERA of both pitchers is higher than the total so this will probably be a 2-1 pitchers duel after all the runs last game. 

By the time the year is over Dickey will have a losing record.  The ship be sinking.  Team can't hit, throw and may get swept very easily.  Lucky to get 1 in SF and needed a blown call to get that win.  No one looks or playing worse right now than the MUTS. 

These are the games that jumped out to me just scanning.  See tomorrow.  I'm sure the forum will give me a couple plays to fade.  Wow what a burial the past few days.  After not having one come from behind win in the 9th, I get 4 the last two days.  The Fish and KC were great wins.

259-315 +59.97   Yesterday 4-3 +5.625

 

 

i agree with your first game...same exact logic...my buddy and i were already discussing this game..its texas or no play..no way a team 20 games over 500 shud be that much of a dog at home...

mets are definate fade material tom as well..

best of luck

Great writes up 165.  I was on the fish and KC tonight as well.  Also had Minny yesterday.  Great wins indeed but it all evens out over the season.  GL tomorrow!

the cubs are no longer ass clowns

Instead of Litsch you would make Lerew a fav as he is allowing more BB's and Hr's than pitching K's. I don't like their bats either but I couldn't justify putting $$ on KC w/ Lerew

Only -21 units on the season 2nd worst only to Sea...Damn your right their stellar

Since the forum gave you some plays to fade, why did you take Detroit on Monday?  Just looking at the forums, I would guess 90% were on the Tigers.  I don't know, but I think Detroit has some good value as an underdog on Tuesday.  Maybe the Tigers can catch lightning in a bottle with Galarraga going on the mound.

 

 

 

 

 

 

..... I still have hope ..... 

I faded them today and will look to fade Armando in this spot tommorow as well.... but GL

Playing devil's advocate, I think alot of squares like taking favorites, so since Texas is a fave, people will bet on them.  Combined with the Tigers 6 game losing streak, this may be a good time to take the Tigers now, but I know it's risky since they are playing like crap.  But any bet is risky, so I guess I'll press my luck and take the Tigers on Tuesday.  To be safe, I think I may take Tigers RL.

Good thoughts 165, I read your posts regularily and respect your efforts.  Despite the record I have to give Dave Bush some credit on how he's pitched this year.  I keep waiting on his old form to show up but it really hasn't. Only 3 games this year with over 4 ER's isn't too bad.  He's probably not going deep but should be good for 6 and 2-3ER.  Crew is a cheaper favorite and it would take a bigger plus number for Pitt to get my $. 

I'm going with the Mets tomorrow because of Dickey. Dbacks don't face knuckleballers at all so there is the element of the unknown. Their radio man Candiotti may pitch BP but I don't think it matters. This team is loaded with swing and miss guys who still are very undisciplined at the plate as their K totals speak to.  Last night's lineup was the best they have to offer and while they did a number on Pelfrey I'm ok with betting they won't win 2 in a row.  Enright promises to give you at least a runner per inning and should also get you at least 3 innings of the Dback pen which is never a bad thing. 

Just some thoughts - keep up the solid work.

Det is actually only 9 games over .500 @ home after Mon. night (sorry, I just can't help myself with correcting that  ,,,,  that said Tex should be favored by 40 cents more...  I'm going to hit them for 2 units ML and 1 unit Alt RL

bumped up

So 32-14=9?? Get back to math class kid  

GL today 165

GL today 165.....hope it's a good one today.

DET is not hitting

BOL today 165!

TUE>>>>>>>>>SP is no good also

You don't think that Tommy Hunters 6-0 record going against a team who has lost 6 in a row, with Armando G on the mound has anything to do with that?

Remember 2 starts ago for Verlander at home when you didn't want to take him because he wasn't "high" enough?  Same thing here.  They favored Texas so you would think exactly how you are. 

C'mon man.

R              H              E

6                13            2

In last nights loss.

He has pitched very well of late, problem is when he takes the mound on the road the team is 1-6.  Over his career he has been nothing short of a money burner in this spot and I can't justify laying that kind of juice with him ever.

When Zona wins the a game at home the next game they are 5-8.  I don't think there's enough there to make a stance either way.  This wager is all about the MUTS and I don't think Dickey has earned the right to be laying juice on the road especially a team that wins only 40% of their games.  Anyhow GL and enjoy reading your take on things.

I meant to write I like the Tigers -1.5.  I don't buy the line of the road fav here.