I just got burned 4 times recently playing the RL and I am not sure how to approach betting baseball since I am very new. I lost yesterday on Pirates and the Cards, and today it was on the Twins and the A's. Having the teams you pick win, and you still lose the bet is very frustrating in baseball. And I am now starting to think that playing the ML or a combination of equal money on the RL and ML is a better choice. Any advice on this subject would be greatly appreciated.
It made sense to me to bet the RL because a little less than 30 percent of games end within 1 run. So I figured why the heck not bet the RL since the odds are in your favor. However, since I am losing bets playing the RL when I could have been winning the same bets on the ML, I am not sure what to do.
Basically in my opinion, what it comes down to and the most important part of the is equation is, are you going to win more money playing the RL or the ML at the end of the season. Or is a combination of both the way to go. You obviously win more with the RL, but you can still lose when you team does not win by more than one run.
I just have not been able to come across any information about this specific subject. For example, if every game you bet on throughout the baseball season was a RL bet vs ML bet, which side would make more money in the end.
I also read that some professional bettors only bet the ML and won't even bet on the game if the team if they like to win is a big favorite. As you can tell, I am very new to this and I am trying to learn from some of the members on here. Thank you.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I just got burned 4 times recently playing the RL and I am not sure how to approach betting baseball since I am very new. I lost yesterday on Pirates and the Cards, and today it was on the Twins and the A's. Having the teams you pick win, and you still lose the bet is very frustrating in baseball. And I am now starting to think that playing the ML or a combination of equal money on the RL and ML is a better choice. Any advice on this subject would be greatly appreciated.
It made sense to me to bet the RL because a little less than 30 percent of games end within 1 run. So I figured why the heck not bet the RL since the odds are in your favor. However, since I am losing bets playing the RL when I could have been winning the same bets on the ML, I am not sure what to do.
Basically in my opinion, what it comes down to and the most important part of the is equation is, are you going to win more money playing the RL or the ML at the end of the season. Or is a combination of both the way to go. You obviously win more with the RL, but you can still lose when you team does not win by more than one run.
I just have not been able to come across any information about this specific subject. For example, if every game you bet on throughout the baseball season was a RL bet vs ML bet, which side would make more money in the end.
I also read that some professional bettors only bet the ML and won't even bet on the game if the team if they like to win is a big favorite. As you can tell, I am very new to this and I am trying to learn from some of the members on here. Thank you.
It made sense to me to bet the RL because a little less than 30 percent of games end within 1 run. So I figured why the heck not bet the RL since the odds are in your favor. However, since I am losing bets playing the RL when I could have been winning the same bets on the ML, I am not sure what to do.
But many of those 1 run games are with the home team winning because they won't bat in the 9th, and if they do bat and win, it's unlikely to be a walk off homerun.
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Quote Originally Posted by Bigpete757:
It made sense to me to bet the RL because a little less than 30 percent of games end within 1 run. So I figured why the heck not bet the RL since the odds are in your favor. However, since I am losing bets playing the RL when I could have been winning the same bets on the ML, I am not sure what to do.
But many of those 1 run games are with the home team winning because they won't bat in the 9th, and if they do bat and win, it's unlikely to be a walk off homerun.
Well I don't really know the answer to your question, but I can tell you that I rarely ever play a runline, the only way I would play a runline is if I think a team is just gonna mash the opposing pitcher and in that case I just play the over. My preference is ML, baseball can be difficult enough trying to pick the winner, why make it more difficult than it already is by needing the winner and also needing them to win on the RL. You can have a 3-1 game, man on second in the ninth with two outs and a base hit they are literally gonna give them the run to make sure the hitter doesnt advance and get into scoring position. Too me that's too frustrating to sit 9 innings, pick the winner and lose because they win by 1 run. That's just my take.
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Well I don't really know the answer to your question, but I can tell you that I rarely ever play a runline, the only way I would play a runline is if I think a team is just gonna mash the opposing pitcher and in that case I just play the over. My preference is ML, baseball can be difficult enough trying to pick the winner, why make it more difficult than it already is by needing the winner and also needing them to win on the RL. You can have a 3-1 game, man on second in the ninth with two outs and a base hit they are literally gonna give them the run to make sure the hitter doesnt advance and get into scoring position. Too me that's too frustrating to sit 9 innings, pick the winner and lose because they win by 1 run. That's just my take.
If you want to maximize your ability to win, you have to consider RL plays as part of your strategy. I see guys on other forums that are very successful and they play RL plays alot. Yes, you do put yourself in the position of the dreaded 1 run win which turns into a loss, but in return for that, you get better odds. By giving up the .5 runs, you turn a favorite into a dog. You also allow yourself the chance to play those heavy favorites (-170 and above), which most good handicappers will stay away from due to high juice. I understand the detractors who say it takes away an inning if the home team is winning by a run in the ninth or the slim possibility of winning by two if the game goes extras. But that is built into the price and part of the risk. I guess you could say the same thing about playing an over total if the home team is favored. You lose a half inning there as well.
Personally, I like to place money on both the ML and the RL and make it into a -1 RL. I never worry about the dreaded 1 run win and I still get nicer odds. Nothing better than being able to jump on the Yanks in an obvious mismatch or get to root for Lincecum without having to lay -180 or -200.
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If you want to maximize your ability to win, you have to consider RL plays as part of your strategy. I see guys on other forums that are very successful and they play RL plays alot. Yes, you do put yourself in the position of the dreaded 1 run win which turns into a loss, but in return for that, you get better odds. By giving up the .5 runs, you turn a favorite into a dog. You also allow yourself the chance to play those heavy favorites (-170 and above), which most good handicappers will stay away from due to high juice. I understand the detractors who say it takes away an inning if the home team is winning by a run in the ninth or the slim possibility of winning by two if the game goes extras. But that is built into the price and part of the risk. I guess you could say the same thing about playing an over total if the home team is favored. You lose a half inning there as well.
Personally, I like to place money on both the ML and the RL and make it into a -1 RL. I never worry about the dreaded 1 run win and I still get nicer odds. Nothing better than being able to jump on the Yanks in an obvious mismatch or get to root for Lincecum without having to lay -180 or -200.
then take the 1.53 and divide it again.. 100/1.53 =
65.39
now 65.39 is what you are going to risk on the ML... what
ever the payout of that, you take that and risk it on the RL
and thats how you get the -1 RL
Example:
St. Louis -220 ML
100/220 = .4545
100/1.45 = 68.96
Risk $68.96 on the -220 ML to win $31.35
Risk $31.35 on the +103 -1.5 RL to win $32.29
If St. Louis wins by 1, you push by winning $31.35 on the ML
but losing $31.35 on the -1.5 RL.
If St. Louis wins by two or more, you win $63.64 on a $100
risk which is like a ML -158.
Basically, whatever you would win on the ML, you risk
that on the RL -1.5 and if your team wins by 1 you push and if your team wins by
2 or more you will win more than the ML payout but a little less than the RL
-1.5 payout. Of course, you can lose both, but the above formula reduces the
amount you would have bet on the ML -220 and puts some on the RL -1.5.
Basically, whatever you would win on the ML, you risk
that on the RL -1.5 and if your team wins by 1 you push and if your team wins by
2 or more you will win more than the ML payout but a little less than the RL
-1.5 payout. Of course, you can lose both, but the above formula reduces the
amount you would have bet on the ML -220 and puts some on the RL -1.5.
If you take your $100
stake and split it between the ML and RL as indicated above, you won't lose any
more than you would by just taking the ML should they lose.
Sure you can risk
less and win more by just taking the -1.5 RL, but we see how many games end up
by one run - especially home teams. St. Louis, Cubbies and Colorado tonight.
Maybe LAD.
But it sure is
attractive to get the favored team and better pitcher, the home crowd AND some +
juice. But that -1.5 is the great equalizer.
I'd like to find a
trend or formula for picking the best
RLs.
GL
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Here is a formula for getting a -1 Run Line:
Say the Money line is -190
Take 100/190 = 0.53
take the 0.53 and add 1 = 1.53
then take the 1.53 and divide it again.. 100/1.53 =
65.39
now 65.39 is what you are going to risk on the ML... what
ever the payout of that, you take that and risk it on the RL
and thats how you get the -1 RL
Example:
St. Louis -220 ML
100/220 = .4545
100/1.45 = 68.96
Risk $68.96 on the -220 ML to win $31.35
Risk $31.35 on the +103 -1.5 RL to win $32.29
If St. Louis wins by 1, you push by winning $31.35 on the ML
but losing $31.35 on the -1.5 RL.
If St. Louis wins by two or more, you win $63.64 on a $100
risk which is like a ML -158.
Basically, whatever you would win on the ML, you risk
that on the RL -1.5 and if your team wins by 1 you push and if your team wins by
2 or more you will win more than the ML payout but a little less than the RL
-1.5 payout. Of course, you can lose both, but the above formula reduces the
amount you would have bet on the ML -220 and puts some on the RL -1.5.
Basically, whatever you would win on the ML, you risk
that on the RL -1.5 and if your team wins by 1 you push and if your team wins by
2 or more you will win more than the ML payout but a little less than the RL
-1.5 payout. Of course, you can lose both, but the above formula reduces the
amount you would have bet on the ML -220 and puts some on the RL -1.5.
If you take your $100
stake and split it between the ML and RL as indicated above, you won't lose any
more than you would by just taking the ML should they lose.
Sure you can risk
less and win more by just taking the -1.5 RL, but we see how many games end up
by one run - especially home teams. St. Louis, Cubbies and Colorado tonight.
Maybe LAD.
But it sure is
attractive to get the favored team and better pitcher, the home crowd AND some +
juice. But that -1.5 is the great equalizer.
I'd like to find a
trend or formula for picking the best
RLs.
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