YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 0-0
I used to be a stalwart in MLB but realized that the game has changed and my handicapping didn't really change with it. So I decided not to try to engage in a long year of frustration with MLB and instead focused most of my attentions this summer on the World Cup, which was a great decision.
But playoff baseball just hits differently even with some of these rules changes. For a handful of years I have witnessed the scoring increase per game, pitchers go out with arm injuries taxing bullpens, and then an extra innings rule that just pushes more scoring. Conversely, playoff baseball tends to be tighter and more focused. So what gives?
In the first game of the day, Chris Sale squares off against Jesus Luzardo, both LHP, with the latter of the two on a pitch count. How long Luzardo goes we will not know but one thing is certain, he has had a great season thus far. The same can be said for Chris Sale who would be a top pick for Cy Young had Jacob Misorowski not existed.
Both of these guys have been pretty miserable in the playoffs, with Sale sporting a 6.35 ERA during his playoff tenure in Boston and Luzardo going 0-4 with a 4.84 ERA. Sale has been really solid agains the Phillies lifetime and Luzardo has also been solid vs. the Braves, even throwing his first career complete game shutout vs. the Braves on September 7th, his last actual start.
The total for this game is set at 6.5, which is incredibly low given how tough the playoffs seem to be for both the starters. Thus you are really placing a bet on one of these starters to NOT be sublime, which is very possible. Both the Philly and Atlanta bullpens have been Jekyll and Hyde, so getting into the Philly bullpen especially, if early, seems like a really great proposition.
Both teams have been solid against LHP's this year and both teams have been good during the day. There shouldn't be a problem with shadows in Atlanta and it's still humid so I can see some HR"s flying out. I know this is an unpopular selection but for me there is only way to play this game since I think Sale pulls through here:
OVER 6.5 FG (PHILADELPHIA/ATLANTA)
I wouldn't be shocked if this game went under but I would be surprised. I don't want to come out the gate with a big play given my limited MLB handicapping but it would otherwise be one had I put in more work during the season. I will have more later today, but first need to post the plays in soccer which has been a torrid moneymaker of late. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..
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