MLB Picks and Why 5/24/24

We went 2-2-1, thought O's were going to do it up 8-2 heading into the 9th but they won by 2 - that game was the push.   Record stands at 11-10.    Let's look at some numbers:

         NYY  Rodon    46

-105  SD   Darvish   -1    

Line opened at -105 for SD has switched to NYY -109 at some places.    I give Rodon a rating of 46 and Darvish -1, typically on paper lower the number the better the pitcher.  When the line opens at 105 for the home team and you have these ratings the home team usually takes it. My plays:

1.  SD -101

2. LAD/CIN  over 10 - 118 

3. Bos - 127   

4. Tor - 125

5. Sea/Wash F5  under 4  -105

6. Phi/Col   under 11 

7. CWS +1.5  +132   

8. small parlay CWS +228 to Over La/Cincy 10  -120   pays 4.7 to 1   

Good luck all 

@TheBuddah

@insatiable

 Thanks bud .

@TheBuddah

"-105  SD   Darvish"

I agree on Darvish, at home, vs Rodon, but the Yankees 9-2 vs last 11 vs righties (streak) has me gun-shy. 

@fubah2

 Thanks bud and back at ya .

@KeyElement

 i can understand.   I use to look up right vs left etc.    got away from that.   I figure the oddsmakers account for it in the line.   I get hung up on streaks of 7…. I find they often end .    That’s the beauty of sports betting, we all have our methodologies.    Thanks and back at ya . 

@TheBuddah

"I figure the oddsmakers account for it in the line."

They are aware of it, nothing escapes those guys, but they make lines to balance the public action and most bettors are not into it. The public likes streaks, trends, h/a, angles, personal vendettas, and all kinds of superstitions that don't matter. Whether the most important guy in the game is l/r handed, and the other team's probability of hitting him, is of little concern. People tend to look at overall YTD stats and not keep up with the evolution of a season. You are smarter than that.  

.

@TheBuddah

THIS! 

@fubah2

"You are smarter than that."

And so are you. 

@TheBuddah