MLB JULY 9

Rays -1.5(+135)

Rasmussen is 4-1, 0.89 ERA in his career vs. the Yankees; New York was shut out for the 6th time this season Wednesday, whiffed 17 times in each of the first two games of the series, and Goldschmidt is 0-for-34. It’s a Yankees bullpen game (Rodón on the IL). Cold offense + ace + blowout upside is exactly the profile you want to lay 1.5 on, and at +135 the price is a gift. Dome, so zero weather risk.

Royals +1.5(-175) 

I’d stay off the Mets ML here (shaky -152 favorite), but the spread is the smart way to play it. Wacha (3.45 ERA, three straight quality starts, 7+ innings in eight outings) is clearly the better arm over a scuffling Manaea (5.40 ERA last five), Citi is a pitcher’s park, and sharp money has been leaking to KC even with 82% of tickets on the Mets. Getting the steadier starter +1.5 to just keep it within a run is a solid spot.

Guardians/Twins U9.5(ALT)(-160) 

Target Field is 78°, 0% rain, and wind blowing straight in — that knocks down the offense. Ober vs. Gavin Williams is two competent arms, and this is the only game on the slate with no rain or park-inflation concern. If you’d rather play it as a side, Twins +114 is genuine model value (numberFire has them at 51.5% as a dog), but the Under is the tidier read.

Cubs F5 ML (+100)

numberFire projects the Cubs to win at 61% even as road dogs, and PCA is scorching (.371, 4 HR last 10). The problem with the full-game Cubs bet is that both bullpens are banged up and Camden is a launching pad with rain risk — so the F5 gets you paid on the better team while sidestepping the shaky relief and the late-game rain window. Getting a 61% team at plus money over five innings is good business.

Braves/Pirates O8.5(ALT) (-170)

CBS’s model simmed it 10,000 times and projects 9.7 runs, and both arms are hittable (Elder 4.01 ERA, Keller 6-6). The one thing pulling me off it: PNC normally plays as a pitcher’s park, so I’d want the number at 9 or lower, not chase it up.

BOL EVERYONE 

Good luck PP.  

Dammit Drew, 4-1 Yanks, 3rd inning plenty of time left, but dammit let’s see how the rest of this game goes