MLB 10/14: Don't Give Up On The Dodgers

MLB Playoffs YTD 0-2 -2.0 units

I've only had two post-season plays and whiffed on both of them including a 2* loss on the Padres winning their series with the Brewers.  The pick below makes me seem like a Brewers hater, which I am not, but I believe the pick offers strong value.

2* Dodgers to win NLCS +215

As bad and old as the Dodgers have looked, I think they have a major shot at coming back and winning this series.  Some reasons:

1) The Dodgers will be huge favorites in Games 3 and 4 with Blake Snell facing Robert Gasser in Game 3 and the Brewers probably trying Dustin May, who has been a disappointment, in Game 4.  Game 5 (Miz vs Skubal) probably has LAD a small favorite at home.

2)  The Dodgers are likely to bench Ohtani who has killed them with his lame at bats in this series.  He's clearly hurt and has lost his bat speed.  Addition by subtraction

3) None of Milwaukee's starters can go more than five innings.  This has worked for them because their bullpen has given up only one ER in the post-season.  But do we seriously think that will continue?  When you use five relievers, if just one of them blows up, you can lose the game.

4) Milwaukee closer Megill has been hit very hard and has been bailed out by catches at the outfield wall.  Tellingly, manager Murphy didn't even use him in a save situation in Game 2.  

In other words, I see red flags for Milwaukee.  The Dodgers are the most battle-tested team in MLB since the 90s Yankees.  They can handle pressure.  The price here is fair.

Good luck Griswold.  

@Griswold1

 Good luck sir

No horse in this race...hesitant to bet cold bats of lads and the pstssn bluz of bruz

Betting lads ml today tho

I think this is a very good time to get a future on LAD if you like them to even up the series and potentially win the WS.

This is the absolute best price that you could have gotten at any time this year.

Even if LAD wins the next two games I think the odds will go to only around +120 or so.

LAD wins WS +350

A major shot? Are you aware that the last 38 MLB teams to fall behind 2-0 in a best-of-7 are 2-36 in those series? Do you really believe the Brewers can lose all three games at Dodger Stadium? And if the Dodgers can't weep them at home (which they most definetely cannot), do you really believe the Dodgers can win both Games 6 & 7 in Milwaukee??

I agree that he should be benched, but Ohtani has rejected that idea outright, so he's playing tonight.

None of Milwaukee's starters has gone more than 5 innings yet in their 6 playoff games. That doesn't mean they can't. As a bigtime Brewers backer this October, I'm not worried about that. There are so many pitchers in that bullpen running well right now that it doesn't seem to matter if the Brewers bullpen has to contribute 5 or 6 innings. And if one of them does blow up in a game and cause them to lose, so what? That could very well happen once, but is it going to occur 3 or 4 times in a series? No.

The only red flag I see is their uncharacteristically poor defense in the playoffs with 7 errors committed in 6 games, and that should be 8 errors, but Cooper Pratt was given a  break on the hot shot smashed to him in Game 2 by Mookie Betts. But even the errors haven't done much to slow down a team on a mission that is being led by the best manager in baseball.

But they can't handle quality pitching, as evidenced by their completely abysmal 4-17 record since July 31st vs. teams that made the playoffs. Over that same period of time they went 29-8 vs. the teams that didn't. 

+215 is terrible. The dirty rotten scoundrels at Caesars sportsbook are offering +230, but even that price is weak given that the challenge facing the Dodgers is to go no worse than 4-1 the remainder of this series despite, like I just mentioned above, having gone 4-17 vs. fellow playoff teams over the last eleven weeks. And they have to get this done vs. a 103-win team that is hugely motivated to bury them in four straight.

Does Lad to win 4-2 @ +625 or 4-3 @ +425 looks better rather than taking them to win series @ +215 to +230?

I wish I knew which Blake Snell is going to show up today?

Will it be the ass kicking that he did on the Brewers a year ago?

Or are the Brewers gonna grind him down like they did to Yamamoto in game two?

I say grind him down.

@marcus

BOL tonight Griswold

GL 

I don’t trust Snell tonight as he can have difficulty with the strike zone. Only need 4-5 innings with Glassner as the advantage for Milwaukee is with their pen.  Not betting dodgers but against Snell. 

Snell over 2.5 walks at +125

S under 14.5 outs +140

Dodgers getting swept 

No errors last night!

Now 4-18. Has anyone heard a talking head on Fox or ESPN even mention this? Is it a secret?

No secret here...tyvm. 

Bye bye Dodgers so glad to see you go!