Lineups/Pitchers/Relievers assessment for today's games

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

• Trea Turner — 9.5/10
• Kyle Schwarber — 9.5/10
• Bryce Harper — 10/10
• Alec Bohm — 8.5/10
• Brandon Marsh — 7.5/10
• Edmundo Sosa — 6.5/10
• Bryson Stott — 7.5/10
• J. T. Realmuto — 7.5/10
• Derek Hill — 5.5/10

Overall Lineup: 9.0/10

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

• Lane Thomas — 7.0/10
• Bobby Witt Jr. — 10/10
• Salvador Perez — 8.5/10
• Jac Caglianone — 8.0/10
• Nick Loftin — 6.0/10
• Starling Marte — 6.5/10
• Tyler Tolbert — 5.5/10
• Luke Maile — 4.5/10
• Josh Rojas — 5.5/10

Overall Lineup: 7.5/10

FINAL RATING

Phillies lineup: 9.0/10

Royals lineup: 7.5/10

On paper, Philadelphia's offense is roughly 15–20% stronger overall because of its depth and lack of weak spots.

Cristopher Sánchez

Rating: 9.5/10

Noah Cameron

Rating: 6.8/10

Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen: 8.5/10

Kansas City Royals Bullpen: 7.5/10

Philadelphia Phillies

• Starting Pitcher: 9.5/10 × 50% = 4.75
• Lineup: 9.0/10 × 30% = 2.70
• Relievers: 8.5/10 × 20% = 1.70

Total Score: 9.15 / 10

Kansas City Royals

• Starting Pitcher: 6.8/10 × 50% = 3.40
• Lineup: 7.5/10 × 30% = 2.25
• Relievers: 7.5/10 × 20% = 1.50

Total Score: 7.15 / 10

Edge by Category

Starting Pitching

• Phillies: 9.5
• Royals: 6.8
• Edge: Phillies +2.7

Lineup

• Phillies: 9.0
• Royals: 7.5
• Edge: Phillies +1.5

Bullpen

• Phillies: 8.5
• Royals: 7.5
• Edge: Phillies +1.0

Overall Weighted Rating

• Phillies: 9.15/10
• Royals: 7.15/10

Difference: +2.00 points

Interpreting the Difference

Using this model, I'd roughly translate the gap into win probability like this:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

A 2.0-point advantage suggests the Phillies would be expected to win roughly 68–70% of the time before accounting for home field or other situational factors.

I actually like this weighting better than giving equal importance to all three areas because, in MLB, the starting pitcher usually has the largest single-game impact, followed by the lineup, with the bullpen generally mattering less unless the starter exits early. For a typical regular-season game, 50% / 30% / 20% is a reasonable framework for comparing teams.

Houston

Starting Pitcher (Mike Burrows): 6.5/10 × 50% = 3.25

Lineup: 8.5/10 × 30% = 2.55

Relievers: 8.5/10 × 20% = 1.70

Total Score: 7.50/10

Houston lineup ratings

• Jose Altuve — 9.0
• Yordan Alvarez — 10.0
• Isaac Paredes — 8.5
• Christian Walker — 8.0
• LaMonte Wade Jr. — 6.5
• Cam Smith — 6.5
• Yainer Diaz — 8.0
• Braden Shewmake — 4.5
• Brice Matthews — 5.5

Washington

Starting Pitcher (Miles Mikolas): 5.8/10 × 50% = 2.90

Lineup: 7.8/10 × 30% = 2.34

Relievers: 6.5/10 × 20% = 1.30

Total Score: 6.54/10

Washington

Starting Pitcher (Miles Mikolas): 5.8/10 × 50% = 2.90

Lineup: 7.8/10 × 30% = 2.34

Relievers: 6.5/10 × 20% = 1.30

Total Score: 6.54/10

Starting Pitching

• Houston: 6.5
• Washington: 5.8
• Edge: Houston +0.7

Lineup

• Houston: 8.5
• Washington: 7.8
• Edge: Houston +0.7

Bullpen

• Houston: 8.5
• Washington: 6.5
• Edge: Houston +2.0

Final Weighted Rating

• Houston: 7.50/10
• Washington: 6.54/10

Difference: +0.96 points

Estimated Win Probability

Using the same scale:

• Houston: 60–62%
• Washington: 38–40%

0.5-point edge: ~55–57%

1.0-point edge: ~59–62% ? This game

1.5-point edge: ~63–66%

2.0-point edge: ~67–70%

2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

New York

Starting Pitcher (Cam Schlittler): 7.8/10 × 50% = 3.90

Lineup: 8.7/10 × 30% = 2.61

Relievers: 8.8/10 × 20% = 1.76

Total Score: 8.27/10

Lineup Ratings

• Trent Grisham — 7.5
• Ben Rice — 8.5
• Paul Goldschmidt — 8.0
• Cody Bellinger — 8.5
• Jasson Domínguez — 8.0
• Jazz Chisholm Jr. — 8.5
• José Caballero — 6.5
• Ryan McMahon — 7.0
• Austin Wells — 7.5

Tampa Bay

Starting Pitcher (Griffin Jax): 8.5/10 × 50% = 4.25

Lineup: 8.2/10 × 30% = 2.46

Relievers: 8.0/10 × 20% = 1.60

Total Score: 8.31/10

Lineup Ratings

• Yandy Díaz — 8.5
• Jonathan Aranda — 8.5
• Junior Caminero — 9.5
• Cedric Mullins — 7.5
• Jonny DeLuca — 6.5
• Chandler Simpson — 7.5
• Nick Fortes — 5.5
• Richie Palacios — 6.5
• Taylor Walls — 5.5

Starting Pitching

• New York: 7.8
• Tampa Bay: 8.5
• Edge: Tampa Bay +0.7

Lineup

• New York: 8.7
• Tampa Bay: 8.2
• Edge: New York +0.5

Bullpen

• New York: 8.8
• Tampa Bay: 8.0
• Edge: New York +0.8

Final Weighted Rating

• New York: 8.27/10
• Tampa Bay: 8.31/10

Difference: Tampa Bay +0.04 points

Interpreting the Difference

Using the same model:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

My projection

Because the difference is only 0.04 points, this projects as essentially a 50/50 game:

• Tampa Bay: 50–51%
• New York: 49–50%
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Starting Pitcher (Freddy Peralta): 8.8/10 × 50% = 4.40

Lineup: 8.2/10 × 30% = 2.46

Relievers: 8.0/10 × 20% = 1.60

Total Score: 8.46/10

Lineup Ratings

• A. J. Ewing — 5.5
• Juan Soto — 10.0
• Bo Bichette — 8.5
• Francisco Lindor — 9.5
• Carson Benge — 6.5
• Jared Young — 5.5
• Francisco Álvarez — 7.5
• Brett Baty — 6.5
• Ronny Mauricio — 7.0

Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitcher (Reynaldo López): 8.2/10 × 50% = 4.10

Lineup: 8.4/10 × 30% = 2.52

Relievers: 8.2/10 × 20% = 1.64

Total Score: 8.26/10

Lineup Ratings

• Michael Harris II — 8.5
• Ozzie Albies — 8.5
• Matt Olson — 9.5
• Drake Baldwin — 7.5
• Mauricio Dubón — 7.0
• Dominic Smith — 6.5
• Austin Riley — 9.0
• Mike Yastrzemski — 7.0
• Jim Jarvis — 5.5

Category Comparison

Starting Pitching

• Mets: 8.8
• Braves: 8.2
• Edge: Mets +0.6

Lineup

• Mets: 8.2
• Braves: 8.4
• Edge: Braves +0.2

Bullpen

• Mets: 8.0
• Braves: 8.2
• Edge: Braves +0.2

Final Weighted Rating

• Mets: 8.46/10
• Braves: 8.26/10

Difference: Mets +0.20 points

Interpreting the Difference

Using the same model:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

My projection

A 0.20-point edge is essentially negligible. I'd project:

• Mets: 51–53%
• Braves: 47–49%
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Milwaukee Brewers

Starting Pitcher (Shane Drohan): 7.4/10 × 50% = 3.70

Lineup: 8.8/10 × 30% = 2.64

Relievers: 8.6/10 × 20% = 1.72

Total Score: 8.06/10

Lineup Ratings

• Christian Yelich — 8.8
• Jackson Chourio — 9.2
• Brice Turang — 8.3
• William Contreras — 9.2
• Jake Bauers — 6.8
• Garrett Mitchell — 7.2
• Sal Frelick — 7.8
• Cooper Pratt — 6.0
• David Hamilton — 5.8

St. Louis Cardinals

Starting Pitcher (Dustin May): 7.1/10 × 50% = 3.55

Lineup: 7.2/10 × 30% = 2.16

Relievers: 7.5/10 × 20% = 1.50

Total Score: 7.21/10

Lineup Ratings

• J. J. Wetherholt — 7.2
• Iván Herrera — 7.8
• Jordan Walker — 8.2
• Nelson Velázquez — 6.8
• José Fermín — 6.2
• Masyn Winn — 7.8
• Nathan Church — 5.8
• Blaze Jordan — 6.2
• Pedro Pagés — 6.3

Category Comparison

Starting Pitching

• Milwaukee: 7.4
• St. Louis: 7.1
• Edge: Milwaukee +0.3

Lineup

• Milwaukee: 8.8
• St. Louis: 7.2
• Edge: Milwaukee +1.6

Bullpen

• Milwaukee: 8.6
• St. Louis: 7.5
• Edge: Milwaukee +1.1

Final Weighted Rating

• Milwaukee: 8.06/10
• St. Louis: 7.21/10

Difference: +0.85 points

Interpreting the Difference

Using the same model:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

My projection

A 0.85-point edge puts this game between your 0.5-point and 1.0-point benchmarks.

• Milwaukee: 58–60%
• St. Louis: 40–42%
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Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitcher (Brandon Pfaadt): 7.3/10 × 50% = 3.65

Lineup: 8.3/10 × 30% = 2.49

Relievers: 7.7/10 × 20% = 1.54

Total Score: 7.68/10

Lineup Ratings

• Ketel Marte — 9.5
• Geraldo Perdomo — 7.8
• Corbin Carroll — 9.5
• Gabriel Moreno — 7.8
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — 7.8
• Max Kepler — 6.5
• Nolan Arenado — 7.5
• Ildemaro Vargas — 6.2
• Tommy Troy — 5.8

San Diego Padres

Starting Pitcher (Walker Buehler): 8.0/10 × 50% = 4.00

Lineup: 8.1/10 × 30% = 2.43

Relievers: 8.3/10 × 20% = 1.66

Total Score: 8.09/10

Lineup Ratings

• Fernando Tatís Jr. — 9.5
• Jake Cronenworth — 7.5
• Manny Machado — 9.5
• Gavin Sheets — 7.2
• Ty France — 7.2
• Jackson Merrill — 9.0
• Samad Taylor — 6.2
• Sung-Mun Song — 5.8
• Rodolfo Durán — 5.5

Category Comparison

Starting Pitching

• Arizona: 7.3
• San Diego: 8.0
• Edge: San Diego +0.7

Lineup

• Arizona: 8.3
• San Diego: 8.1
• Edge: Arizona +0.2

Bullpen

• Arizona: 7.7
• San Diego: 8.3
• Edge: San Diego +0.6

Final Weighted Rating

• Arizona: 7.68/10
• San Diego: 8.09/10

Difference: +0.41 points (San Diego)

Interpreting the Difference

Using the same model:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

My projection

A 0.41-point edge is just under your 0.5-point threshold.

• San Diego: 54–56%
• Arizona: 44–46%
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Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitcher (Kyle Freeland): 5.8/10 × 50% = 2.90

Lineup: 7.2/10 × 30% = 2.16

Relievers: 6.2/10 × 20% = 1.24

Total Score: 6.30/10

Lineup Ratings

• Willi Castro — 7.8
• Kyle Karros — 5.8
• Hunter Goodman — 8.5
• T. J. Rumfield — 6.5
• Cole Carrigg — 6.5
• Tyler Freeman — 6.8
• Jake McCarthy — 7.2
• Troy Johnston — 6.0
• Ezequiel Tovar — 7.8

Los Angeles Dodgers

Starting Pitcher (Eric Lauer): 6.8/10 × 50% = 3.40

Lineup: 9.8/10 × 30% = 2.94

Relievers: 8.8/10 × 20% = 1.76

Total Score: 8.10/10

Lineup Ratings

• Shohei Ohtani — 10.0
• Andy Pages — 8.5
• Freddie Freeman — 9.8
• Mookie Betts — 10.0
• Kyle Tucker — 9.8
• Teoscar Hernández — 8.8
• Max Muncy — 8.5
• Miguel Rojas — 6.8
• Dalton Rushing — 7.5

Category Comparison

Starting Pitching

• Colorado: 5.8
• Los Angeles: 6.8
• Edge: Dodgers +1.0

Lineup

• Colorado: 7.2
• Los Angeles: 9.8
• Edge: Dodgers +2.6

Bullpen

• Colorado: 6.2
• Los Angeles: 8.8
• Edge: Dodgers +2.6

Final Weighted Rating

• Colorado: 6.30/10
• Los Angeles: 8.10/10

Difference: +1.80 points (Dodgers)

Interpreting the Difference

Using the same model:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

My projection

A 1.80-point edge falls between your 1.5-point and 2.0-point benchmarks.

• Dodgers: 66–68%
• Rockies: 32–34%
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Toronto Blue Jays

Starting Pitcher (Kevin Gausman): 8.7/10 × 50% = 4.35

Lineup: 7.8/10 × 30% = 2.34

Relievers: 7.8/10 × 20% = 1.56

Total Score: 8.25/10

Lineup Ratings

• Ernie Clement — 7.2
• Nathan Lukes — 6.5
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 9.5
• Kazuma Okamoto — 7.8
• Sean Keys — 5.5
• Alejandro Kirk — 8.0
• Daulton Varsho — 7.8
• Myles Straw — 5.8
• Andrés Giménez — 7.2

San Francisco Giants

Starting Pitcher (Landen Roupp): 7.8/10 × 50% = 3.90

Lineup: 8.7/10 × 30% = 2.61

Relievers: 8.4/10 × 20% = 1.68

Total Score: 8.19/10

Lineup Ratings

• Heliot Ramos — 8.0
• Luis Arraez — 9.0
• Casey Schmitt — 7.5
• Rafael Devers — 9.8
• Jung Hoo Lee — 8.5
• Willy Adames — 8.5
• Bryce Eldridge — 7.0
• Victor Bericoto — 6.2
• Eric Haase — 6.5

Category Comparison

Starting Pitching

• Toronto: 8.7
• San Francisco: 7.8
• Edge: Toronto +0.9

Lineup

• Toronto: 7.8
• San Francisco: 8.7
• Edge: San Francisco +0.9

Bullpen

• Toronto: 7.8
• San Francisco: 8.4
• Edge: San Francisco +0.6

Final Weighted Rating

• Toronto: 8.25/10
• San Francisco: 8.19/10

Difference: +0.06 points (Toronto)

Interpreting the Difference

Using the same model:

• 0.5-point edge: ~55–57%
• 1.0-point edge: ~59–62%
• 1.5-point edge: ~63–66%
• 2.0-point edge: ~67–70%
• 2.5-point edge: ~71–74%

My projection

A 0.06-point edge is effectively no edge at all.

• Toronto: 50–51%
• San Francisco: 49–50%
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