I got great news for all you. If you found this thread you just found a literal gold mine.

@JimmyGape

 I'm already on Detroit today, but I'll watch your picks and system. 

BOL

Known dozens of books in my life when they here we going to kill the books…they buy another house

Hear..

Adding model pick # 2

Mariners -120   

Strength of play is 1 on a scale of 1-3

we dont ever go higher than 3, at least not yet

Extremely busy

Thanks to everyone who stopped in and showed support. Appreciate you all.

Appreciate your efforts for sharing stats and info with us all, But you must know Lively is not pitching and Meadows has been on IR for 2 months. These are 2 names you are using in your write up. I hope your analysis works out well. Just don't want to see anyone misled. Thank you for the work.

He sure did,  Cocaine is a wonderful and powerful drug

lmfaooooooo, heres secret photos of bookies all around the world hearing about jimmy gapes taking them down

He doesnt realize that sports books will be here long after hes gone

Tigers …lol

Not a good start. 0-1

0-2

The books are shaking in there boots..

their*

you're a genius

you guys ever hear about something called adequate sample size or bankroll management?

google them

and proceed to read the first 500 links you find

GL to you   

@JimmyGape

No one’s perfect, get the next one!

FelixFermin

LFG

You'll rebound with your positive mindset and conviction. As they say, it's a marathon and not a sprint. Updating and fine tuning your strategy may be required along the way.

Well today was not a good start. But in gambling it's a marathon not a sprint. Good days and bad days.

May 23, 2025 – 

Confidence: 2 Units
Edge: +5.12%

This one checks all the boxes: elite starting pitching, anemic bats, and a pitcher-friendly ballpark. We're heading to PNC Park in Pittsburgh — one of the stingiest parks for offense in the National League — for a Friday night matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers (25–26) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (17–34).

Paul Skenes has been exactly what the Pirates hoped for: dominant. He enters with a 2.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and an electric 97.9 mph average fastball. In his lone career start vs. Milwaukee, he tossed 7 shutout innings, striking out 11 and allowing zero hits. The model sees Skenes as a top-five right-hander already — especially at home, where he’s held opponents to a .188 AVG.

On the other side is Freddy Peralta, who’s quietly putting together another All-Star caliber season. His 2.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP are backed by legit peripherals — including a 33.3% hard-hit rate (86th percentile) and a top-10 K rate among NL starters. He’s allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 6 starts.

This is where we dug in even deeper.

Milwaukee's bullpen isn’t perfect — their overall ERA ranks 27th — but their high-leverage arms like Abner Uribe (1.98 ERA) and Jared Koenig (2.57 ERA) have been excellent in short bursts. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's bullpen has stabilized behind Dennis Santana (2.44 ERA) and Holderman (3.16 ERA), especially at home where they’ve quietly gone Under in 8 of their last 9 at PNC.

These two offenses? Brutal.

• Pittsburgh ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored (151), team AVG (.219), and slugging (.322).

• Milwaukee isn’t much better: 25th in AVG, 28th in SLG, and still underperforming vs. RHP.

Add it all up and we’ve got a game that projects for just 6.6 total runs per our BetLegend Pro model — even after adjusting for shaky middle relievers.

• Projected Total Runs: 6.6

• Model Win Probability for Under 7.0: 56.0%

• Implied Odds (-114): 53.3%

• Edge: +5.12%

• Units: 2 (per model unit sizing rules)

It’s hard to find value in low totals like this — but we’ve got it here. Between two strikeout-heavy aces, two bottom-tier lineups, and a ballpark that swallows offense, Under 7.0 (-114) is a legit plus-EV wager. It grades out at +5.12% edge — good for a 2-unit recommendation from the BetLegend Pro model.

Let’s cash a quiet one.

LIKE THEY SAY A FOOL AND THEIR MONEY IS SOON PARTED. 

 The Pittsbirgh Pirates offense

Batting .219 as a team 

@JimmyGape

 Let's get it!