I got great news for all you. If you found this thread you just found a literal gold mine.

@Martylee

 Not trying to be a dick but he isnt holding a gun to anyone's head

I got great news for you Jimmy, you are 0-4

Usually this kind of satire is reserved for the nfl forum. 

when people title threads the way he did, i have never seen them end well for that poster.  Your not gonna destroy the books and put them out of business.

Why Over 8.5 Runs Is the Sharpest Bet Tonight: Dodgers vs. Mets — May 25, 2025

• Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (32–20) @ New York Mets (31–21)

• First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET

• Venue: Citi Field, New York

• Weather: Mid 60s, slight breeze blowing out to right-center

• Line: Over 8.5 (-117)

• ERA: 6.17

• WHIP: 1.65

• FIP: 5.84

• xERA: 5.91

• Barrel Rate Allowed: 10.4% (Bottom 10% of MLB)

• Hard-Hit %: 42.7%

• Ground Ball Rate: Just 36.4%

• Recent Form: 9 ER and 4 HR in last 9.2 IP

?? Takeaway: Knack is a rookie without elite velocity, struggling with both contact suppression and command. His flyball profile and HR rate are not sustainable in a lineup like New York's — especially in a humidity-aided Citi Field with a breeze to RF.

• ERA: 1.43 (deceptively elite)

• SIERA: 4.19

• WHIP: 1.21

• Walk Rate: 10.8%

• Hard-Hit %: 43.3%

• Expected BA: .263

?? Takeaway: Senga is masking major regression signals. He’s walking batters at an alarming rate, allowing premium contact, and relying on his forkball to bail him out. Against a top-3 offense in patience and power, he could unravel early.

• 2nd in MLB in runs scored (291)

• 5.7 runs/game

• Team OPS: .777 (Top 3)

• vs RHP: .282 AVG / .805 OPS

• Top 5 in OBP, ISO, BB%

• May Form: Ohtani, Freeman, Smith, Muncy all .800+ OPS

?? Takeaway: This is a lineup that feasts on high-walk, low-strikeout pitchers, and Senga fits that mold perfectly. They don’t chase, punish mistakes, and are locked in.

• 5.1 runs/game at home

• OPS > .800 vs RHP for Soto, Alonso, McNeil

• 7.2 runs/game vs rookie SPs in 2025

• Last 5 Games: Scored 5+ in 4

?? Takeaway: They’re disciplined and hot. Knack’s pitch-to-contact style plays directly into their strengths — and they've torched inexperienced starters all season.

?? Conclusion: Both starters allow damage on contact, and both walk more batters than average. The Dodgers’ ability to punish mistakes and the Mets’ momentum vs rookie arms makes this a near-ideal over setup.

• Dodgers: Over in 7 of last 10

• Mets: Over in 5 of last 8

• Head-to-Head (Last 15): Average 9.5 runs/game

• Citi Field Night Game Average (2025): 9.3 runs/game

• Umpire Trend: Over is 18–11 with tonight’s plate umpire (small zone)

• Dodgers Bullpen (Last 7): 5.00 ERA

• Mets Bullpen (Last 30 days): 4.62 ERA

• Both teams have blown late leads and allowed multi-run innings repeatedly this month

 Takeaway: Even if it starts slow, the game has strong backdoor Over potential in the 6th–9th due to bullpen inconsistencies.

• Opened at 8, now 8.5 with juice on Over

• Public leans Under due to Senga's surface stats

• Smart bettors targeting walk-prone starters vs top-tier lineups

• The true number should be closer to 9 or 9.5 based on all factors combined

Everything aligns:

? Regression-ready starters
? Elite offenses in rhythm
? Weather + park favoring flight
? Sharp Over indicators (line movement + matchup)
? Overwhelming statistical support (hard-hit %, xERA, BB rates)
? Bullpens leaking runs late
? Historically high-scoring series

This is the perfect storm for a double-digit total — and getting 8.5 is real value before the number climbs or the market adjusts.

• Full Game Over 8.5 (-117)

• First 5 Innings Over 4.5 (-120)

• Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5 (-105)

• Will Smith Over 0.5 Walks (+104)

You're just posting an AI conversation, I can see that with the bolding used amongst other things. Books use computers and AI too, you need really find inputs that work and constantly be tweaking. 

I am tweaking. Thsts why there was only one pick today. This was the only one that fell within the confines of the system. The inputs I gave it generated all of this.

Well good luck and go Niners. I'm a big fan. I go to 2-3 games a year. Just about to buy tics to the Meadowlands. 

Hell yea

And if you haven't figured this out yet make sure you run everything 2-3 times for consistency. AI hallucinates a bunch. DM anytime. I have a thread and have speacilaized on F5 unders with very good results. 

Sounds good man I appreciate it feel free to hit me up anytime as well. I'll check out your thread, BOL  

@JimmyGape

 Another winner. Sorry, I mean loser!

Gold mine something but you are 20% winning or less. I did not keep track of your bs. bet.

Horrific beat on that one. Challenge took a run off the board and bases left loaded twice. Horrific variance so far its amazing.

Huh? You posted this an hour ago and the game had barely started. Im very confiident itll be good long run 5 picks is not an adequate sample size. 

I would welcome some input. Does anyone have experience with this kind of thing? Should I tweak it already or go for a bigger sample size? Build a 2nd model with different inputs? Its extremely time consuiming and exhausting.

Really sucks the variance has been so bad so far. The reasoning and stats are obviously solid. 

This didn’t age well. Hopefully you turn it around. Several good cappers on here to follow. 

@JimmyGape

 No more "GOLD MINE" F*cking Sh*t!!!

Go back to elementary shool and study and I am sure you are never graduated in gambling.

come out here and blow me idiot.

@JimmyGape

 Only stupid and crazy animal staying around you who with a child mind and trying to shutdown the books. Keep dreaming!

@JimmyGape

 The Mets can not hit, they can’t hit bad pitching, average pitching or good pitching. Knack was not good tonight but the Mets bail everybody out because they’re so undisciplined at the plate. The Mets pitching staff has been really good. I wanna see how long the Mets pitching holds up 

@JimmyGape

 What is your record up to date?

does this post look familiar.  Could jimmy being doing a little plagiarism?  He just left a few parts of the post here.  No way he created a program that spits out written info like this in a few weeks and then back tested  staying up late.

Jimmy has some explaining to do

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/29876794-dodgers-mets-tonight

now we just got to hunt down the website that is actually creating this info

In the one creating this info you clown. That's me.