The sleeping Giants have awoken and are looking for another victory today against the lowly Pirates in Pittsburgh. Everything points to another Giants win.
A deep, analytical dive into today's matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates reveals a series of statistical disparities that build an overwhelming case for a Giants victory. The advantages extend far beyond the surface-level pitching matchup and point to fundamental weaknesses in the Pirates' ability to compete with today's opponent.
The starting pitching matchup presents the most significant and quantifiable gap. The Giants are sending left-hander Robbie Ray to the mound, while the Pirates will counter with their own southpaw, Andrew Heaney.
Robbie Ray, Giants:
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ERA: 2.85
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xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average): .296
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Barrel % Against: 8.1%
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K% (Strikeout Percentage): 25.4%
Ray's numbers show a pitcher in elite form. His expected wOBA—a stat that measures the quality of contact against him—is exceptionally low, indicating that his success is not a fluke but a result of inducing weak contact. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout percentage and the 87th percentile in whiff percentage, demonstrating his ability to dominate hitters and miss bats.
Andrew Heaney, Pirates:
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ERA: 4.89
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xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average): .364
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Barrel % Against: 10.5%
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K% (Strikeout Percentage): 16.8%
Heaney's profile is alarming for the Pirates. His xwOBA is significantly higher than his actual wOBA (.342), suggesting he's been somewhat fortunate and his ERA could be even worse. He allows a high percentage of "barreled" balls—the most dangerous type of contact—and his strikeout rate is well below the league average. Furthermore, Heaney has surrendered the most earned runs (60) and home runs (21) of any pitcher on the Pirates' staff this season. This combination of allowing hard contact and not missing bats is a recipe for disaster against any Major League lineup.
With two left-handers on the mound, the offensive splits become critically important. Here, the data reveals another stark contrast.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LHP: The Pirates' offense has been anemic against left-handed pitching this season, posting a collective batting average of just .219. This isn't a small sample size anomaly; it's a season-long trend that points to a systemic struggle within their lineup to handle southpaws.
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San Francisco Giants vs. LHP: While the Giants have also had their struggles against lefties at times, their overall offensive numbers are more respectable. They have shown the capability for offensive outbursts, like the one they had in the first game of this series, where every starter recorded a hit. Key hitters in the Giants lineup have also had success against Heaney personally. Willy Adames, for instance, has two career home runs against him.
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