This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
Thursday, May 07:
HOT STREAK WARNING!
MEYER, Miami
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
Yankees [my bet at -150 despite only a thin edge] are facing a lefty today, but on the first defensive play of the game (top of the first) DOMINGUEZ is hurt making an out.
Against lefties, Jason Dominguez is batting .375 and 1.000 OPS!
His very good bat is replaced by McMahon: .167 and .367 OPS
Just my luck......
Yankees [my bet at -150 despite only a thin edge] are facing a lefty today, but on the first defensive play of the game (top of the first) DOMINGUEZ is hurt making an out.
Against lefties, Jason Dominguez is batting .375 and 1.000 OPS!
His very good bat is replaced by McMahon: .167 and .367 OPS
Otherwise GOOD SP, LUGO (Royals) with just a ,268 ERA and solid 1.24 WHIP *IMPLODES* in the top of the first - allowing 5 hits and 3 ER.... There goes my *BB right there.....
Yep....unexpected disaster as LUGO puts 11 runners on base in only 4 ip
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Otherwise GOOD SP, LUGO (Royals) with just a ,268 ERA and solid 1.24 WHIP *IMPLODES* in the top of the first - allowing 5 hits and 3 ER.... There goes my *BB right there.....
Yep....unexpected disaster as LUGO puts 11 runners on base in only 4 ip
I've been searching over my stats from May 01 thru May 06 and although this is obviously a small sample size there appears to be some interesting trends. The numbers that follow are based ONLY on my particular capping methods.
27 - 21 for team with SIGNIFICANT starter edge (regardless anything else) and in all cases his team was favored, often heavily.
16 - 23 for team with SIGNIFICANT bullpen edge only (regardless anything else)
22 - 21 for all teams with a WORSE-than-average bullpen (opps BP being better) This is stunning!WTF?!?!?! Having a bad bullpen and the worse of the two pens in the game and the WORST BP team goes 22 - 21 (all based on my personal assessments of pens)
I've been searching over my stats from May 01 thru May 06 and although this is obviously a small sample size there appears to be some interesting trends. The numbers that follow are based ONLY on my particular capping methods.
27 - 21 for team with SIGNIFICANT starter edge (regardless anything else) and in all cases his team was favored, often heavily.
16 - 23 for team with SIGNIFICANT bullpen edge only (regardless anything else)
22 - 21 for all teams with a WORSE-than-average bullpen (opps BP being better) This is stunning!WTF?!?!?! Having a bad bullpen and the worse of the two pens in the game and the WORST BP team goes 22 - 21 (all based on my personal assessments of pens)
When I begin my capping each day, on my daily game sheet I begin by listing the estimated RPG for each team (adjusted for skewing, UNearned runs (luck!), probable effect of Ballpark; recency including batting slumps and injuries to key bats or return of key bats)....Then carry on from that key starting point, tweaking further for offense vs L or R; predicted offense vs that day's starting pitcher; tweaking for the lesser effect of Bullpens....then I spit out a final projection of RUNS for each team. I use that number to assess a team's chances of winning and possibility of a Total bet. Then judge the risk against the lines if it is worth the risk or not. With that in mind, there has emerged some VERY interesting stats:
1/ When I begin my capping matchup, and have personally determined an adjusted RPG of 4.9 or higher [NO!! not the listed ytd RPG you might find on various sites! WRONG!!!! - just my tweaked stats which is adjusted on multiple factors and usually varies SIGNIFICANTLY from the listed YTD rpg stats found on various sites] ....before analyzing that day's matchup (and that 4.9+ is better than the opp number) those games went a whopping 18 - 4
2/ If it was a HOME team, and the homie starter is no worse than avg, then 11 - 1-provided we rule out any start by a pitcher on a HOT STREAK alert (Warren yesterday)
Those two stats are from my BEGINNING estimated/tweaked RPG *before* I get down to analyzing the entire matchup that game.
3/ Then *AFTER* I proceed thru my full matchup analysis which includes pitching and spit out the final estimate of runs - regardless what numbers my est. rpg BEGAN with - if my analyzed FINAL numbers are 4.9 runs or higher the HOME TEAM went 9 - 1 (roadie went only 3 - 4)
Thursday, the Yankees were indicated in all 3 of those stats. Began with est. 4.9 rpg, home starter no worse than avg, and final rpg estimated at 5.0+ runs. I had Texas final estimate at 4.6 runs, so the edge for Yankees was NOT SIGNIFICANT I would have normally PASSED on risking -150 on such a small edge (5.0 vs 4.6) But because they fulfilled those 3 stats I took'em for a *Best Bet.
They won 9 - 2
Similar for Washington. 5.0 vs 4.7 final estimate is NOT SIGNIFICANT and I would normally pass when there is no significant edge. BUT they have a starter who is better than avg and their final run estimate (higher than opp) was for 5.0+ runs.
They won 7 - 5
CUBBIES are my third *Best Bet using those stats, although they also entered the game with a SOLID +1.5 run edge in my capping and I would have considered them when less tahn -189 Cubs are still pending...
When I begin my capping each day, on my daily game sheet I begin by listing the estimated RPG for each team (adjusted for skewing, UNearned runs (luck!), probable effect of Ballpark; recency including batting slumps and injuries to key bats or return of key bats)....Then carry on from that key starting point, tweaking further for offense vs L or R; predicted offense vs that day's starting pitcher; tweaking for the lesser effect of Bullpens....then I spit out a final projection of RUNS for each team. I use that number to assess a team's chances of winning and possibility of a Total bet. Then judge the risk against the lines if it is worth the risk or not. With that in mind, there has emerged some VERY interesting stats:
1/ When I begin my capping matchup, and have personally determined an adjusted RPG of 4.9 or higher [NO!! not the listed ytd RPG you might find on various sites! WRONG!!!! - just my tweaked stats which is adjusted on multiple factors and usually varies SIGNIFICANTLY from the listed YTD rpg stats found on various sites] ....before analyzing that day's matchup (and that 4.9+ is better than the opp number) those games went a whopping 18 - 4
2/ If it was a HOME team, and the homie starter is no worse than avg, then 11 - 1-provided we rule out any start by a pitcher on a HOT STREAK alert (Warren yesterday)
Those two stats are from my BEGINNING estimated/tweaked RPG *before* I get down to analyzing the entire matchup that game.
3/ Then *AFTER* I proceed thru my full matchup analysis which includes pitching and spit out the final estimate of runs - regardless what numbers my est. rpg BEGAN with - if my analyzed FINAL numbers are 4.9 runs or higher the HOME TEAM went 9 - 1 (roadie went only 3 - 4)
Thursday, the Yankees were indicated in all 3 of those stats. Began with est. 4.9 rpg, home starter no worse than avg, and final rpg estimated at 5.0+ runs. I had Texas final estimate at 4.6 runs, so the edge for Yankees was NOT SIGNIFICANT I would have normally PASSED on risking -150 on such a small edge (5.0 vs 4.6) But because they fulfilled those 3 stats I took'em for a *Best Bet.
They won 9 - 2
Similar for Washington. 5.0 vs 4.7 final estimate is NOT SIGNIFICANT and I would normally pass when there is no significant edge. BUT they have a starter who is better than avg and their final run estimate (higher than opp) was for 5.0+ runs.
They won 7 - 5
CUBBIES are my third *Best Bet using those stats, although they also entered the game with a SOLID +1.5 run edge in my capping and I would have considered them when less tahn -189 Cubs are still pending...
When I begin my capping each day, on my daily game sheet I begin by listing the estimated RPG for each team (adjusted for skewing, UNearned runs (luck!), probable effect of Ballpark; recency including batting slumps and injuries to key bats or return of key bats)....Then carry on from that key starting point, tweaking further for offense vs L or R; predicted offense vs that day's starting pitcher; tweaking for the lesser effect of Bullpens....then I spit out a final projection of RUNS for each team. I use that number to assess a team's chances of winning and possibility of a Total bet. Then judge the risk against the lines if it is worth the risk or not.With that in mind, there has emerged some VERY interesting stats: 1/ When I begin my capping matchup, and have personally determined an adjusted RPG of 4.9 or higher [NO!! not the listed ytd RPG you might find on various sites! WRONG!!!! - just my tweaked stats which is adjusted on multiple factors and usually varies SIGNIFICANTLY from the listed YTD rpg stats found on various sites] ....before analyzing that day's matchup (and that 4.9+ is better than the opp number) those games went a whopping 18 - 4 2/ If it was a HOME team, and the homie starter is no worse than avg, then 11 - 1 -provided we rule out any start by a pitcher on a HOT STREAK alert (Warren yesterday) Those two stats are from my BEGINNING estimated/tweaked RPG *before* I get down to analyzing the entire matchup that game. 3/ Then *AFTER* I proceed thru my full matchup analysis which includes pitching and spit out the final estimate of runs - regardless what numbers my est. rpg BEGAN with - if my analyzed FINAL numbers are 4.9 runs or higher the HOME TEAM went 9 - 1 (roadie went only 3 - 4) Thursday, the Yankees were indicated in all 3 of those stats. Began with est. 4.9 rpg, home starter no worse than avg, and final rpg estimated at 5.0+ runs. I had Texas final estimate at 4.6 runs, so the edge for Yankees was NOT SIGNIFICANT I would have normally PASSED on risking -150 on such a small edge (5.0 vs 4.6) But because they fulfilled those 3 stats I took'em for a *Best Bet. They won 9 - 2 Similar for Washington. 5.0 vs 4.7 final estimate is NOT SIGNIFICANT and I would normally pass when there is no significant edge. BUT they have a starter who is better than avg and their final run estimate (higher than opp) was for 5.0+ runs. They won 7 - 5
CUBBIES are my third *Best Bet using those stats, although they also entered the game with a SOLID +1.5 run edge in my capping and I would have considered them when less tahn -189 Cubs are still pending...
...and they just won 8 - 3
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
When I begin my capping each day, on my daily game sheet I begin by listing the estimated RPG for each team (adjusted for skewing, UNearned runs (luck!), probable effect of Ballpark; recency including batting slumps and injuries to key bats or return of key bats)....Then carry on from that key starting point, tweaking further for offense vs L or R; predicted offense vs that day's starting pitcher; tweaking for the lesser effect of Bullpens....then I spit out a final projection of RUNS for each team. I use that number to assess a team's chances of winning and possibility of a Total bet. Then judge the risk against the lines if it is worth the risk or not.With that in mind, there has emerged some VERY interesting stats: 1/ When I begin my capping matchup, and have personally determined an adjusted RPG of 4.9 or higher [NO!! not the listed ytd RPG you might find on various sites! WRONG!!!! - just my tweaked stats which is adjusted on multiple factors and usually varies SIGNIFICANTLY from the listed YTD rpg stats found on various sites] ....before analyzing that day's matchup (and that 4.9+ is better than the opp number) those games went a whopping 18 - 4 2/ If it was a HOME team, and the homie starter is no worse than avg, then 11 - 1 -provided we rule out any start by a pitcher on a HOT STREAK alert (Warren yesterday) Those two stats are from my BEGINNING estimated/tweaked RPG *before* I get down to analyzing the entire matchup that game. 3/ Then *AFTER* I proceed thru my full matchup analysis which includes pitching and spit out the final estimate of runs - regardless what numbers my est. rpg BEGAN with - if my analyzed FINAL numbers are 4.9 runs or higher the HOME TEAM went 9 - 1 (roadie went only 3 - 4) Thursday, the Yankees were indicated in all 3 of those stats. Began with est. 4.9 rpg, home starter no worse than avg, and final rpg estimated at 5.0+ runs. I had Texas final estimate at 4.6 runs, so the edge for Yankees was NOT SIGNIFICANT I would have normally PASSED on risking -150 on such a small edge (5.0 vs 4.6) But because they fulfilled those 3 stats I took'em for a *Best Bet. They won 9 - 2 Similar for Washington. 5.0 vs 4.7 final estimate is NOT SIGNIFICANT and I would normally pass when there is no significant edge. BUT they have a starter who is better than avg and their final run estimate (higher than opp) was for 5.0+ runs. They won 7 - 5
CUBBIES are my third *Best Bet using those stats, although they also entered the game with a SOLID +1.5 run edge in my capping and I would have considered them when less tahn -189 Cubs are still pending...
Okie Doke, Fini, ya rascal but I'm passing on the game believing MEYER could be due for a BAD outing after 7 consecutive w/o failure. Didn't even bother capping the match..... BUT BoL with your bet!
Quote Originally Posted by finsterbaby:
Miami B@nk ittttttFubah.
Okie Doke, Fini, ya rascal but I'm passing on the game believing MEYER could be due for a BAD outing after 7 consecutive w/o failure. Didn't even bother capping the match..... BUT BoL with your bet!
Thursday (as always, listed pitchers at the time of my post): W Tex/NYY over 8 -125 *BB W NYY -150 *BB ....very thin edge, but part of new angle I am tracking W Wash -114 *BB ....very thin edge, but part of 2nd new angle I am tracking L KC -139 *BB ...could be way off AGAIN but my capping says a +1.6 run edge W "Cardiac" CUBS -187 *BB +1.5 run edge....also part of new angle I am tracking W Colorado +127 "value bet" ....virtual coin-flipper ...pending: Padres -157 *BB smallish edge, est 4.9 vs 4.3, but part of new angle I am tracking
5 - 2 Thursday with 4 - 2 *Best Bets
My new angles went 3 - 1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Thursday (as always, listed pitchers at the time of my post): W Tex/NYY over 8 -125 *BB W NYY -150 *BB ....very thin edge, but part of new angle I am tracking W Wash -114 *BB ....very thin edge, but part of 2nd new angle I am tracking L KC -139 *BB ...could be way off AGAIN but my capping says a +1.6 run edge W "Cardiac" CUBS -187 *BB +1.5 run edge....also part of new angle I am tracking W Colorado +127 "value bet" ....virtual coin-flipper ...pending: Padres -157 *BB smallish edge, est 4.9 vs 4.3, but part of new angle I am tracking
How long you been at this stuff ive been getting better latey i think im not really tracking them and i need to start jarrowing my selection as of today.
I will run 1 long thread instead see how i do now Thanks for all u do buddy
Mr Evil.
@fubah2
How long you been at this stuff ive been getting better latey i think im not really tracking them and i need to start jarrowing my selection as of today.
I will run 1 long thread instead see how i do now Thanks for all u do buddy
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
Friday, May 08:
HOT STREAK WARNING!
Miziorowski, Brewskies
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
Friday, May 08:
HOT STREAK WARNING!
HANCOCK, Mariners
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
Friday, May 08:
HOT STREAK WARNING!
RAY,offensively challenged Giants
This STARTER is riding a tenuous 7-gameHOT STREAK,
WITHOUT a BAD outing in that streak .....YET!
...but this should be anticipated to end at anytime!!!
Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional! HOWEVER, probability says "consecutive streaks won't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.
A BAD DAY happens to the best of them. Just CAN NOT be avoided.
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
HOT STREAK WARNING!
CAVEAT: even if the starter has a "bad outing" doesn't mean his team will lose! It just seriously weakens their chances! But his team's bats could come thru with a lot of runs to save the day..... maybe! You decide.
Fubah.
Just my luck......
I've been searching over my stats from May 01 thru May 06 and although this is obviously a small sample size there appears to be some interesting trends.
WTF?!?!?! Having a bad bullpen and the worse of the two pens in the game and the WORST BP team goes 22 - 21 (all based on my personal assessments of pens)
Thursday, the Yankees were indicated in all 3 of those stats. Began with est. 4.9 rpg, home starter no worse than avg, and final rpg estimated at 5.0+ runs. I had Texas final estimate at 4.6 runs, so the edge for Yankees was NOT SIGNIFICANT I would have normally PASSED on risking -150 on such a small edge (5.0 vs 4.6) But because they fulfilled those 3 stats I took'em for a *Best Bet.
but I'm passing on the game believing MEYER 
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