I think i'm 0-2 in my posted playoff picks - so may want to fade.....nahh:) Let's look at some numbers:
TB Jax 61
-131 Clev. Williams 0
Line opened at -131 for Clev currently 125-130 depending on which site you look at (sportsmemo.com) . Jax last pitched against the Yanks on Oct 7 in relief, he has more strikeouts than I.pitched - a very good sign of a pitcher at this time of year with around 114 innings pitched with 116 or 117 s/outs. Based on outside sources but my own methodology of evaluating a pitcher Jax is 61 . Williams - has a rating of 0 - which indicates he is very very good. He has pitched a combined 196 Innings with 272 s/outs - elite in my opinion.
I look at a variety of factors but mainly opening lines and ratings and try to mimic history. For example, yesterday Snell opened at 177 (sportsmemo.com) - we had a 1 game in the playoffs with a 177 opening line for the home team and the away team took that game and won by more that 1 run. That occurred yesterday as well. We have had 1 game so far in the playoffs using sportsmemo lines where the home team was favored -131 and the home team took it on the run line. That's part of the equation - the other part which is more reliable is looking at the ratings combined with the opening line. Looking at the data I collected with these numbers - often the home team takes and often on the run line.
My Plays:
Clev -1 +119
Good luck all
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