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Bodio's MLB Thur 06/16

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by Werker:

I tend to think that line movement matters even more in baseball than most sports because of the fact that the average baseball joe schmoe doesn't care if a game is -120 or -130. Also, the average handle for a random baseball game is smaller than that of the NBA or NFL. The line movement is even more a tell of sharp action in MLB.

Yes, that's probably very true.  Also, there's a lot less public bettors in MLB so the line-moves are probably a little more significant.  


 
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Posted: #52
well i doont knoow.....if ROM helps u cap NHL then shouldnt that be a factor in MLB? youre the pro im just trying to put in whatever i can to helpp us all make money
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by eknilb:

well i doont knoow.....if ROM helps u cap NHL then shouldnt that be a factor in MLB? youre the pro im just trying to put in whatever i can to helpp us all make money

There are a lot of reasons for 'odds' movement in MLB.  Things like lineup factors, weather, umpires, etc.  Some are relevant, some are not.  Also, most opening odds come from 20 cent books, and not the sharper, 10 cent ones.  It's important to look at the 'right' book when analyzing odds-movement!  Those 20 cent odds will 'naturally' get adjusted down (primarily on the favorites) to the 'true' line.  I guess my point is that odds-movement in MLB is harder to decipher.  Anyone has done a study or has some data to back up 'odds movement' in baseball?  
 
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Posted: #54

good luck bodio.

 
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Posted: #55

bodio - you thoughts on the kc/oak game in a few minutes?  is gio gonzalez a pitcher you can trust at home?  i am leaning a's ML or the under 7.5 - your thoughts?  thanks man!

 
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Posted: #56
Nice day yesterday Bodio. Should have been 5-0  and not 4-1.
 
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Posted: #57
Great call on Brewers yesterday I was wrong on that one.  I will take 3 out 4 though  I guess thinking they could win all four was asking to much
 
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Posted: #58
bol tonight
 
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Posted: #59
BO, braves and cards, i got em too but i'm thinkn cards 1st 5 now. also like D-backs ml and over.  good luck!
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
 
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Posted: #60
Whats the word BODIO?
 
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Posted: #61
What do you think about the overs in the giants game??
 
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Posted: #62
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


There are a lot of reasons for 'odds' movement in MLB.  Things like lineup factors, weather, umpires, etc.  Some are relevant, some are not.  Also, most opening odds come from 20 cent books, and not the sharper, 10 cent ones.  It's important to look at the 'right' book when analyzing odds-movement!  Those 20 cent odds will 'naturally' get adjusted down (primarily on the favorites) to the 'true' line.  I guess my point is that odds-movement in MLB is harder to decipher.  Anyone has done a study or has some data to back up 'odds movement' in baseball?  


ill keep start to keep track of your plays with big ROM on heavy public plays to see where they stand.i tailed all plays today except cards. i took nats. not to disrespect you in anyways i have the utmost respect for you. but with holiday back in the line up the line seem too fishy.

do you mind if i post the records on your plays with big ROM like 20 cents or higher in your thread? maybe we can gather some good data through out this season and we can all end the season up more units together?

 
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Posted: #64
looks like yesterday's winnings are all going back to the books
 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66
we've been stuck at 10-15 units for the last 2 months but look at the bright side...its better than being negative units
 
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Posted: #67
i remember the losses more than the wins...and ive noticed a few things. id like to post them here if bodio doesnt mind. maybe we'll gather enough information to pass on certain scenarios
 
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Posted: #68
0-4, better off guessing.
 
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Posted: #69
cards tied up. i might go 0-4 with bodio 1-3
 
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Posted: #70
nats came in for me....sorry everyone...lets hope we get braves....
 
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Posted: #71
lets get em tomorrow bodio, we should of had the houston game...the 3 run homer in the first killed us.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


"right now" eh?  I don't focus too much on short-term performance streaks as I find them irrelevant pretty much in baseball.  (see a post 2 days ago as we had a good discussion regarding that in there).  Starting pitching and hitting are clear advantages to the Cards.  BP is a slight advantage to the Nats, but it does increase today a bit since Nats' pen is rested and Cards' is not (definitely a risk area for today's game).  Defensively both teams are similar so no advantage either way.. Just need to move Pujols back to 1st!  Overall, Cardinals are a better team IMO.



in NBA i remember you cap a lot of games based on teams ATS for last 5 last 10 etc not as the main factor but you do use teams ATS streaks in your capping for nba games and you had an awsome season in nba. wouldnt teams win streaks in mlb be similar to nba ats?

as a gambler i know all streaks comes to an end...and u never bet against a streak...similar to betting bacarrat lmao well idk im just trying to throw in some input to help us get out this slump.
 
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Posted: #73
finally on the right side of a bullpen  with the Bravos
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by eknilb:

lets get em tomorrow bodio, we should of had the houston game...the 3 run homer in the first killed us.

Eknib, dont take this the wrong way man, but Houston never even made the Pirates sweat in that game.  Pitt beat the living piss out of them from the opening pitch until the final out.  Yeah, it got a little close at the end and in the middle, but i would not say "we shoulda had that Houston game".  Pitt was the play.  I tailed Poolman on his Pitt system play.  We rode them for the sweep.


Anyway.  Good luck today Bo.  I kno  you will kick some ass today. 
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


Eknib, dont take this the wrong way man, but Houston never even made the Pirates sweat in that game.  Pitt beat the living piss out of them from the opening pitch until the final out.  Yeah, it got a little close at the end and in the middle, but i would not say "we shoulda had that Houston game".  Pitt was the play.  I tailed Poolman on his Pitt system play.  We rode them for the sweep.




I was only following the game on the net, but Houston had 9 hits and 5 walks, to Pittsburgh's 7 hits and 1 walk....I'm pretty sure there was a 3 or 4 inning span after the Jones HR in the 1st where the Pirates didn't have a hit. Is there something I would have seen on the live telecast that would have indicated how Pitt "beat the living piss out of them"?
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