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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Bodio's MLB Mon 09/26

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    HoustonSports
    LawDog
    bodio
    nyduccie
    Fortmax
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    HoustonSports
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 4:27 PM ET #26

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    LawDog
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 4:32 PM ET #27

     tonight B
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     tonight B
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 4:53 PM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by luongtuan92:

     good luck bodio are you thinking about the nfl game tonight ?

    'Skins +3.5
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    Quote Originally Posted by luongtuan92:

     good luck bodio are you thinking about the nfl game tonight ?

    'Skins +3.5
     
    nyduccie
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 4:53 PM ET #29

    Bautista and Rasmus are both in lineup FYI. 

    Phillies first 5 inn is the bet IMO, as they prob wont let Lee go long and ATL will go much further exhausting their efforts in the later innings than the Phils will..
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    Bautista and Rasmus are both in lineup FYI. 

    Phillies first 5 inn is the bet IMO, as they prob wont let Lee go long and ATL will go much further exhausting their efforts in the later innings than the Phils will..
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 4:59 PM ET #30

    Quote Originally Posted by fuxy008:

    GL

    Will STL catch ATL today? If i have to chose i rather play HOU than PHI. STL have better chance in WC IMO, whats your opinion?



    yeah, STL might catch the Braves.  ATL is playing like crap and I see Philly ending the season on a 'positive' note so they'll play hard.  Should be interesting
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    Quote Originally Posted by fuxy008:

    GL

    Will STL catch ATL today? If i have to chose i rather play HOU than PHI. STL have better chance in WC IMO, whats your opinion?



    yeah, STL might catch the Braves.  ATL is playing like crap and I see Philly ending the season on a 'positive' note so they'll play hard.  Should be interesting
     
    Fortmax
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 4:59 PM ET #31

    Good luck Bodio !
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    Good luck Bodio !
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:00 PM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by ionutt79:

    best of luck from ROMANIA

    today I like, beside two of your plays(PHI and OAK), TEX Rangers, what's your opinion about it ?

    I like Angels' pitching better in this one but can't fade Rangers right now either.  Pass for me
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    Quote Originally Posted by ionutt79:

    best of luck from ROMANIA

    today I like, beside two of your plays(PHI and OAK), TEX Rangers, what's your opinion about it ?

    I like Angels' pitching better in this one but can't fade Rangers right now either.  Pass for me
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:02 PM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgfan1980:

    Bodio, long time follower, first time poster.  Do you see Philadelphia letting Lee go deep in this game in Atlanta?  This is basically playoff baseball for the home team, and I am just not sure Philadelphia has any incentive to send their best arm deep into this game.

    With the way ATL hits lefties, Lee can go 7 easily with a low pitch-count.  Plus Delgado is due for a massive regression to the mean:  38% GB-rate, 86% strand-rate, -2.3 E-F, .222 BABIP and I expect to see Phillies 'strong' lineup tonight.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawgfan1980:

    Bodio, long time follower, first time poster.  Do you see Philadelphia letting Lee go deep in this game in Atlanta?  This is basically playoff baseball for the home team, and I am just not sure Philadelphia has any incentive to send their best arm deep into this game.

    With the way ATL hits lefties, Lee can go 7 easily with a low pitch-count.  Plus Delgado is due for a massive regression to the mean:  38% GB-rate, 86% strand-rate, -2.3 E-F, .222 BABIP and I expect to see Phillies 'strong' lineup tonight.
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:06 PM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

    Bautista and Rasmus are both in lineup FYI. 

    Phillies first 5 inn is the bet IMO, as they prob wont let Lee go long and ATL will go much further exhausting their efforts in the later innings than the Phils will..

    Yup, Bautista is in there.  It's alright, I still like the Sox in this one. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

    Bautista and Rasmus are both in lineup FYI. 

    Phillies first 5 inn is the bet IMO, as they prob wont let Lee go long and ATL will go much further exhausting their efforts in the later innings than the Phils will..

    Yup, Bautista is in there.  It's alright, I still like the Sox in this one. 
     
    DDH420
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:09 PM ET #35

    Nice I like the DEAD-SKINS as well.
    Not 100% on how I'm playing them yet but I do love them tonight. Just heard Romo-sexual gets hit or sacked every 4 pass attempts so playing with a broken rib and punctured long that happened only 8 days ago doesn't have me liking his odds to finish the game with WASH having 7 sacks over their 1st 2 games,DAL leads the league with 10. Orakpo and the boys should be coming early and often and with no Miles Austin and Dez Bryant (questionable) Romo's options drop off quickly especially with likely no Felix Jones who is doubtful with a separated shoulder

    Sure he has and loves Witten (also sore ribs but probable) whos great but not so much when he's the only receiving threat/option. On the other hand the SKINS should get a bit of a boost with LaRon Landry looking to make his season debut. These games are also usually pretty tight even at the best of times. So with all the injuries to the COWGIRLS I think the SKINS as dogs is the way to go. In the last 10 meetings there have been 3 "blowouts" of 17,17 and 21 points but the other 7 were decided by 3,6,1,4,2 and 3 so in the tight game I'll take the points and the +$
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    Nice I like the DEAD-SKINS as well.
    Not 100% on how I'm playing them yet but I do love them tonight. Just heard Romo-sexual gets hit or sacked every 4 pass attempts so playing with a broken rib and punctured long that happened only 8 days ago doesn't have me liking his odds to finish the game with WASH having 7 sacks over their 1st 2 games,DAL leads the league with 10. Orakpo and the boys should be coming early and often and with no Miles Austin and Dez Bryant (questionable) Romo's options drop off quickly especially with likely no Felix Jones who is doubtful with a separated shoulder

    Sure he has and loves Witten (also sore ribs but probable) whos great but not so much when he's the only receiving threat/option. On the other hand the SKINS should get a bit of a boost with LaRon Landry looking to make his season debut. These games are also usually pretty tight even at the best of times. So with all the injuries to the COWGIRLS I think the SKINS as dogs is the way to go. In the last 10 meetings there have been 3 "blowouts" of 17,17 and 21 points but the other 7 were decided by 3,6,1,4,2 and 3 so in the tight game I'll take the points and the +$
     
    nyduccie
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:16 PM ET #36

    What do you have the total at for Houston/STL? 

    2 Lefty pitchers. 15 of 16 position players batting are righty. Same division and have seen the pitchers plenty of times. The last time these teams played the same two pitchers pitched and went over the total.  And theres 15 mph winds blowing out if the roof is left open...
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    What do you have the total at for Houston/STL? 

    2 Lefty pitchers. 15 of 16 position players batting are righty. Same division and have seen the pitchers plenty of times. The last time these teams played the same two pitchers pitched and went over the total.  And theres 15 mph winds blowing out if the roof is left open...
     
    416bet
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:17 PM ET #37

    good luck Bodio!
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    good luck Bodio!
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:19 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

    Nice I like the DEAD-SKINS as well.
    Not 100% on how I'm playing them yet but I do love them tonight. Just heard Romo-sexual gets hit or sacked every 4 pass attempts so playing with a broken rib and punctured long that happened only 8 days ago doesn't have me liking his odds to finish the game with WASH having 7 sacks over their 1st 2 games,DAL leads the league with 10. Orakpo and the boys should be coming early and often and with no Miles Austin and Dez Bryant (questionable) Romo's options drop off quickly especially with likely no Felix Jones who is doubtful with a separated shoulder

    Sure he has and loves Witten (also sore ribs but probable) whos great but not so much when he's the only receiving threat/option. On the other hand the SKINS should get a bit of a boost with LaRon Landry looking to make his season debut. These games are also usually pretty tight even at the best of times. So with all the injuries to the COWGIRLS I think the SKINS as dogs is the way to go. In the last 10 meetings there have been 3 "blowouts" of 17,17 and 21 points but the other 7 were decided by 3,6,1,4,2 and 3 so in the tight game I'll take the points and the +$

    Agree.  This has the making of a 3-point win for either team.  Getting the 'hook' could be huge here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

    Nice I like the DEAD-SKINS as well.
    Not 100% on how I'm playing them yet but I do love them tonight. Just heard Romo-sexual gets hit or sacked every 4 pass attempts so playing with a broken rib and punctured long that happened only 8 days ago doesn't have me liking his odds to finish the game with WASH having 7 sacks over their 1st 2 games,DAL leads the league with 10. Orakpo and the boys should be coming early and often and with no Miles Austin and Dez Bryant (questionable) Romo's options drop off quickly especially with likely no Felix Jones who is doubtful with a separated shoulder

    Sure he has and loves Witten (also sore ribs but probable) whos great but not so much when he's the only receiving threat/option. On the other hand the SKINS should get a bit of a boost with LaRon Landry looking to make his season debut. These games are also usually pretty tight even at the best of times. So with all the injuries to the COWGIRLS I think the SKINS as dogs is the way to go. In the last 10 meetings there have been 3 "blowouts" of 17,17 and 21 points but the other 7 were decided by 3,6,1,4,2 and 3 so in the tight game I'll take the points and the +$

    Agree.  This has the making of a 3-point win for either team.  Getting the 'hook' could be huge here.
     
    bodio
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:20 PM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

    What do you have the total at for Houston/STL? 

    2 Lefty pitchers. 15 of 16 position players batting are righty. Same division and have seen the pitchers plenty of times. The last time these teams played the same two pitchers pitched and went over the total.  And theres 15 mph winds blowing out if the roof is left open...

    My model has the O/U at 8.0
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    Quote Originally Posted by nyduccie:

    What do you have the total at for Houston/STL? 

    2 Lefty pitchers. 15 of 16 position players batting are righty. Same division and have seen the pitchers plenty of times. The last time these teams played the same two pitchers pitched and went over the total.  And theres 15 mph winds blowing out if the roof is left open...

    My model has the O/U at 8.0
     
    WhySoSucK
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:23 PM ET #40

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    svensk
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:30 PM ET #41

    GL Bodio great year congrats 
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    GL Bodio great year congrats 
     
    ray-ray
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 5:57 PM ET #42

    Hey Bod whats up, I havn't posted in a while...looks like my prediction of Angels winning the AL west is toast. I'm really loving the Phillies tonite, they need to get hot before the playoffs plus Atl dont hit lefties well....also leaning Det and St.L. ....thinking about the Redskins straight up too, Romo could be out of this one early with one good hit......I gave away a couple preseason NHL tickets to a couple kids as I was leaving the gym today, maybe karma pays me back tonite...

    good luck bro

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    Hey Bod whats up, I havn't posted in a while...looks like my prediction of Angels winning the AL west is toast. I'm really loving the Phillies tonite, they need to get hot before the playoffs plus Atl dont hit lefties well....also leaning Det and St.L. ....thinking about the Redskins straight up too, Romo could be out of this one early with one good hit......I gave away a couple preseason NHL tickets to a couple kids as I was leaving the gym today, maybe karma pays me back tonite...

    good luck bro

     
    bigwreck
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 6:35 PM ET #43

    Gl Bodio
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    Gl Bodio
     
    rxpert
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 6:42 PM ET #44

    in response to phila pitching plans above.

    Roy Halladay was pulled from yesterday's 9-4 win over the Mets after throwing 77 pitches. Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt likely will be on similar pitch counts the next two games

    Read more: https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110926_Phillies_Notebook__Phillies_will_walk_a_fine_line_in_Atlanta.html#ixzz1Z6JtXeu4
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    in response to phila pitching plans above.

    Roy Halladay was pulled from yesterday's 9-4 win over the Mets after throwing 77 pitches. Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt likely will be on similar pitch counts the next two games

    Read more: https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110926_Phillies_Notebook__Phillies_will_walk_a_fine_line_in_Atlanta.html#ixzz1Z6JtXeu4
    Watch sports videos you won't find anywhere else

     
    fmoe1
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 6:55 PM ET #45

    How about Philly 1st 5 in that case?

    Quote Originally Posted by rxpert:

    in response to phila pitching plans above.

    Roy Halladay was pulled from yesterday's 9-4 win over the Mets after throwing 77 pitches. Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt likely will be on similar pitch counts the next two games

    Read more: https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110926_Phillies_Notebook__Phillies_will_walk_a_fine_line_in_Atlanta.html#ixzz1Z6JtXeu4
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    How about Philly 1st 5 in that case?

    Quote Originally Posted by rxpert:

    in response to phila pitching plans above.

    Roy Halladay was pulled from yesterday's 9-4 win over the Mets after throwing 77 pitches. Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt likely will be on similar pitch counts the next two games

    Read more: https://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20110926_Phillies_Notebook__Phillies_will_walk_a_fine_line_in_Atlanta.html#ixzz1Z6JtXeu4
    Watch sports videos you won't find anywhere else

     
    TiltRepeater
    TiltRepeater
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 6:59 PM ET #46

    Quote Originally Posted by ray-ray:

    also leaning Det and St.L... Romo could be out of this one early with one good hit

    I think Detroit's a good bet today.  Fister's been great.  Jimenez not so much esp. on the road.  Tigers want to keep winning to avoid first round against the Yankees whether they would admit that or not.

    I can't see Romo doing much tonight with his rib.  Everytime I've had a minor rib injury it's hurt to move a light box and even to breath.  It's also got to be a real distraction to a QB's decision making process.

    Seattle/Oakland U.  Vargas will limit the A's. BOL

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    Quote Originally Posted by ray-ray:

    also leaning Det and St.L... Romo could be out of this one early with one good hit

    I think Detroit's a good bet today.  Fister's been great.  Jimenez not so much esp. on the road.  Tigers want to keep winning to avoid first round against the Yankees whether they would admit that or not.

    I can't see Romo doing much tonight with his rib.  Everytime I've had a minor rib injury it's hurt to move a light box and even to breath.  It's also got to be a real distraction to a QB's decision making process.

    Seattle/Oakland U.  Vargas will limit the A's. BOL

     
    timbaland99
    timbaland99
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 7:08 PM ET #47

    hey Bodio, been following you for the past six months. thanks for all your hard work. I had a couple questions. what are your thoughts on MLB -1 lines vs. moneylines? you save on the juice but I don't know how many games actually finish a one run margin. I typically use the -1 lines when the ml is greater than -150.

    my second question is do you send out your plays through email as sometimes i miss out on a win from one of your plays when I'm busy or when the forums are cluttered up and I can't find your thread.

    the last thing I wanted to ask was whether or not you are going to be setting up a service in the future or do you plan on continuing to post your plays on this forum free of charge?

    thanks for your hard work and best of luck on your plays
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    hey Bodio, been following you for the past six months. thanks for all your hard work. I had a couple questions. what are your thoughts on MLB -1 lines vs. moneylines? you save on the juice but I don't know how many games actually finish a one run margin. I typically use the -1 lines when the ml is greater than -150.

    my second question is do you send out your plays through email as sometimes i miss out on a win from one of your plays when I'm busy or when the forums are cluttered up and I can't find your thread.

    the last thing I wanted to ask was whether or not you are going to be setting up a service in the future or do you plan on continuing to post your plays on this forum free of charge?

    thanks for your hard work and best of luck on your plays
     
    afgking4life
    afgking4life
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    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 7:20 PM ET #48


    1. Eric Young (S) LF
    2. Mark Ellis (R) 2B
    3. Dexter Fowler (S) CF
    4. Seth Smith (L) RF
    5. Jordan Pacheco (R) 1B
    6. Kevin Kouzmanoff (R) 3B
    7. Wilin Rosario (R) C
    8. Tommy Field (R) SS
    9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) P
    1. Andres Torres (S) CF
    2. Mike Fontenot (L) 2B
    3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
    4. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
    5. Brett Pill (R) 1B
    6. Brandon Belt (L) LF
    7. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
    8. Eli Whiteside (R) C
    9. Ryan Vogelsong (R) P




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    1. Eric Young (S) LF
    2. Mark Ellis (R) 2B
    3. Dexter Fowler (S) CF
    4. Seth Smith (L) RF
    5. Jordan Pacheco (R) 1B
    6. Kevin Kouzmanoff (R) 3B
    7. Wilin Rosario (R) C
    8. Tommy Field (R) SS
    9. Jhoulys Chacin (R) P
    1. Andres Torres (S) CF
    2. Mike Fontenot (L) 2B
    3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF
    4. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B
    5. Brett Pill (R) 1B
    6. Brandon Belt (L) LF
    7. Brandon Crawford (L) SS
    8. Eli Whiteside (R) C
    9. Ryan Vogelsong (R) P




     
    afgking4life
    afgking4life
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    Posts: 292
    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 7:20 PM ET #49

    those are the lineups for the rockies/giants game....

    what is your opinion? i feel that giants are the winner...and the pick for tonight
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    those are the lineups for the rockies/giants game....

    what is your opinion? i feel that giants are the winner...and the pick for tonight
     
     
    TucsonClip
    TucsonClip
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    Posts: 95
    Posted: Sep. 26, 2011 - 7:45 PM ET #50

    Cliff Lee at 37 pitches through 2, down 2-0.

    Phillies offense is gonna have to carry in this one.
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    Cliff Lee at 37 pitches through 2, down 2-0.

    Phillies offense is gonna have to carry in this one.
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