Brewers: I'm backing a 'better' team in this one. That's as simple as it gets. Sure Brewers are going for a 4-game road sweep, which is never easy to do, but they have an advantage in pretty much every key category. Better hitting, better bullpen, and much much better starter on the mound today. Greinke comes into this one with a 7.50 K/BB ratio, 2.74 FIP (#19) and the best xFIP in the league at 1.94. HIs 3.7 tERA is a little higher than I like, but that's due to him giving up a higher percentage of Line-drives this year than in his career. I expect that to regress back to the mean. Vazquez is Florida's worst pitcher. Yes, it was a mistake of them signing this guy and paying him $7M per, but unfortunately they don't have anyone else to replace him at the moment. Vazquez' velocity remains 'down' (he dropped to high 80's with the Yankees last year), he has a terrible 1.3 K/BB ratio (horrible, especially for a NL pitcher), and his 4.92 FIP and 5.03 xFIP are some of the worst numbers in the league. Throw in the fact that he has a 50% FB% this year and it's not a surprise that his tERA is over 5 (5.1 to be exact). Vazquez is now beginning to give up HR's too, allowing 3 in his last 2 starts. Against a team like the BrewCrew (2nd most HR's in the NL) that spells disaster. Heck, even Greinke belted one 2 starts ago. Brewers are 4-1 as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range, while Florida is 2-3 in the same 'odds range' at home this year and 13-30 over the last couple of seasons. Throw in the fact that Milwaukee is 6-2 in their last 8 games while Florida is 2-6 in the same time-span, and I love for the BrewCrew to finish off a 4-game sweep in this one.
UNDER 8 SEA/CHW: The White Sox have never seen Pineda before and this team seems to struggle offensively against pitchers they're seeing for the first time. Pineda is a stud. I'm not going to break down his advanced stats here but he's top 20 in all major AdvS categories. Danks is coming off his worst outing of the season, where he gave up 9 hits and 9 ER's (3 HR's) in 4 innings of work. Can you say 'rebound'? Seattle is a perfect team for that as Danks went 3-0 against them last year, giving up only 15 hits in 23 innings of work and only 3 ER's in those starts. He had a 15K to 5BB ratio against them. Seattle is coming off a win here but must travel cross-country for this one. White Sox have averaged 2.5 rpg in their last 2. I like this one to stay UNDER tonight.
Brewers: I'm backing a 'better' team in this one. That's as simple as it gets. Sure Brewers are going for a 4-game road sweep, which is never easy to do, but they have an advantage in pretty much every key category. Better hitting, better bullpen, and much much better starter on the mound today. Greinke comes into this one with a 7.50 K/BB ratio, 2.74 FIP (#19) and the best xFIP in the league at 1.94. HIs 3.7 tERA is a little higher than I like, but that's due to him giving up a higher percentage of Line-drives this year than in his career. I expect that to regress back to the mean. Vazquez is Florida's worst pitcher. Yes, it was a mistake of them signing this guy and paying him $7M per, but unfortunately they don't have anyone else to replace him at the moment. Vazquez' velocity remains 'down' (he dropped to high 80's with the Yankees last year), he has a terrible 1.3 K/BB ratio (horrible, especially for a NL pitcher), and his 4.92 FIP and 5.03 xFIP are some of the worst numbers in the league. Throw in the fact that he has a 50% FB% this year and it's not a surprise that his tERA is over 5 (5.1 to be exact). Vazquez is now beginning to give up HR's too, allowing 3 in his last 2 starts. Against a team like the BrewCrew (2nd most HR's in the NL) that spells disaster. Heck, even Greinke belted one 2 starts ago. Brewers are 4-1 as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range, while Florida is 2-3 in the same 'odds range' at home this year and 13-30 over the last couple of seasons. Throw in the fact that Milwaukee is 6-2 in their last 8 games while Florida is 2-6 in the same time-span, and I love for the BrewCrew to finish off a 4-game sweep in this one.
UNDER 8 SEA/CHW: The White Sox have never seen Pineda before and this team seems to struggle offensively against pitchers they're seeing for the first time. Pineda is a stud. I'm not going to break down his advanced stats here but he's top 20 in all major AdvS categories. Danks is coming off his worst outing of the season, where he gave up 9 hits and 9 ER's (3 HR's) in 4 innings of work. Can you say 'rebound'? Seattle is a perfect team for that as Danks went 3-0 against them last year, giving up only 15 hits in 23 innings of work and only 3 ER's in those starts. He had a 15K to 5BB ratio against them. Seattle is coming off a win here but must travel cross-country for this one. White Sox have averaged 2.5 rpg in their last 2. I like this one to stay UNDER tonight.
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