Posted:
#1
Mahle has an ERA 1 run less than Sanchez last 10 games
Mahle before last game allowing 5 gave up 1 or less runs in 7 of 8(the other was 2 runs)
Sanchez is 0-5 career vs Braves
Are we Getting Value with Atlanta?
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Posts: 13
Posted:
#2
I think so, Mahle has looked like a new man since joining Atl.and getting the hell out of San Fran. as you said, his stats are actually better than dirty Sanchez’s. I believe Sanchez struck out 13 Braves in 12 innings, but besides that there’s no huge advantage there… I’m pretty sure that 3 shot blast by Austin Riley in the bottom of the eighth inning yesterday killed a lot of Philly Mojo too. 
Posted:
#7
Quote Originally Posted by Enfuego9:
That word VALUE
That word VALUE
Well, value is over the long haul so its not a guarantee winner for an individual game but tome everything scream Atlanta other than maybe than you think Philly wont get swept but its just 2 games. I think Philly blew their chance game 1.
Posted:
#8
@smellybunty
Quote Originally Posted by smellybunty:
Mahle has an ERA 1 run less than Sanchez last 10 games Mahle before last game allowing 5 gave up 1 or less runs in 7 of 8(the other was 2 runs) Sanchez is 0-5 career vs Braves
Mahle has an ERA 1 run less than Sanchez last 10 games Mahle before last game allowing 5 gave up 1 or less runs in 7 of 8(the other was 2 runs) Sanchez is 0-5 career vs Braves
Maybe. But I wouldn't call ATL a huge edge, but your Mahle recent-form argument is legitimate and is stronger than simply betting Atlanta because they won Game 1.
But if you go strictly based off of your starting pitcher argument I would maybe consider the 1st 5 innings instead of the full game for value or edge.
For example:
My ranking by edge/value:
ATL 1st 5 +0.5 -125 — best overall. The tie protection fits the Mahle/Sánchez handicap very well. Estimated edge ~5–7%.
ATL 1st 5 -0.5 +162 — best aggressive value. You need Atlanta leading after 5, but +162 gives you a much better payout. Estimated edge ~2–4%.
ATL ML +102 — positive value, but more variables because you're betting the final 4 innings too. Estimated edge ~2–3%.
ATL 1st 5 ML +120 — I like it less than the +0.5 because a tie after 5 only pushes, while you're getting only +120 for the Atlanta win. Estimated edge ~1–2%.
Best single play: ATL 1st 5 +0.5 -125.
Best price/value if you want more upside: ATL 1st 5 -0.5 +162.
Your 0-5 career vs. Atlanta stat for Sánchez is interesting, but I'd put considerably less weight on it than his recent form and the current Atlanta lineup.
The current market has moved around:
ATL +105 to +112 earlier and now around -100 to -103 at some books, while Philadelphia is roughly -117 consensus.
At ATL +105, you're getting an implied probability of 48.8%.
At ATL -103, it's 50.7%.
I'd be much more interested in Atlanta at +105 or better.
I will add one more thing. If you like the pitching matchup that much for the value you also have to consider that in the playoffs if both pitchers are on their game and do not get into trouble -- they will go deeper into the game. So, you have to consider how 'confident' you feel about that happening as opposed to a regular season game and assign some 'value' to that as well.
BOL on whatever you decide.
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