Been logging every pick against Closing Line Value instead of just win/loss. The closing number is the market's final, most-informed price — beating it consistently is the one thing that can't be faked or cherry-picked after the fact, unlike a highlight-reel win/loss record.
Since Jun 16, 2026: 1672W-1293L (56.4% win rate), avg CLV +6.3% (30-day window not yet distinct from inception)
Anyone else track CLV on their own bets, or is win rate still the main scoreboard in your circle?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Been logging every pick against Closing Line Value instead of just win/loss. The closing number is the market's final, most-informed price — beating it consistently is the one thing that can't be faked or cherry-picked after the fact, unlike a highlight-reel win/loss record.
Since Jun 16, 2026: 1672W-1293L (56.4% win rate), avg CLV +6.3% (30-day window not yet distinct from inception)
Anyone else track CLV on their own bets, or is win rate still the main scoreboard in your circle?
But I will point out that a 30-day sample is quite small.
The question would be if your +6.3% is specific to a certain method. For example, average edge versus the closing implied probability rather than average line movement. If you are not sure I can give you an example of the distinction.
But good that you are tracking it.
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@AutohiveEdge
Everyone that is serious should track CLV.
But I will point out that a 30-day sample is quite small.
The question would be if your +6.3% is specific to a certain method. For example, average edge versus the closing implied probability rather than average line movement. If you are not sure I can give you an example of the distinction.
@Raiders22 yeah exactly, edge vs closing implied probability, not raw line movement. Every pick gets priced against Kalshi's market at the time we fire the alert (that's our fair-value anchor), then graded against wherever Kalshi's line settles at close. So +6.3% CLV = on average we're beating the market's final, sharpest number by that much — not just "line moved our way," which can be noise from public money or news that has nothing to do with whether the original number was actually mispriced.
Good catch on the 30-day thing too, it's true, once inception and rolling 30-day actually start showing different numbers I'll split them out. Right now they're basically the same because the sample's still young.
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@Raiders22 yeah exactly, edge vs closing implied probability, not raw line movement. Every pick gets priced against Kalshi's market at the time we fire the alert (that's our fair-value anchor), then graded against wherever Kalshi's line settles at close. So +6.3% CLV = on average we're beating the market's final, sharpest number by that much — not just "line moved our way," which can be noise from public money or news that has nothing to do with whether the original number was actually mispriced.
Good catch on the 30-day thing too, it's true, once inception and rolling 30-day actually start showing different numbers I'll split them out. Right now they're basically the same because the sample's still young.
@Way2Good no unit sizing baked into the alerts, that's on purpose. I publish the edge + the CLV grade, everyone's bankroll/staking is their own business.
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@Way2Good no unit sizing baked into the alerts, that's on purpose. I publish the edge + the CLV grade, everyone's bankroll/staking is their own business.
I understand but unless if you are playing with monopoly money then the amount of times you wager for the 1500+ plays in one month will be realistic. I think bet size is still important even if you have a big big big bank roll to play with CLV. I am just curious brotherman. My approach the past years in betting has been CLV as well but I am still reliant on my bankroll management.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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@AutohiveEdge
I understand but unless if you are playing with monopoly money then the amount of times you wager for the 1500+ plays in one month will be realistic. I think bet size is still important even if you have a big big big bank roll to play with CLV. I am just curious brotherman. My approach the past years in betting has been CLV as well but I am still reliant on my bankroll management.
I’ve honestly never factored closing line value into my results one time. Do I notice when I beat the market…Of course. But in baseball, I wait for the lineups, so I understand I’m sometimes giving up ten or fifteen cents to bettors willing to project them early…
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I’ve honestly never factored closing line value into my results one time. Do I notice when I beat the market…Of course. But in baseball, I wait for the lineups, so I understand I’m sometimes giving up ten or fifteen cents to bettors willing to project them early…
Quick follow-up on the CLV numbers — 30-day window is finally distinct from inception now, for anyone who pointed out the sample was too thin to split out yet.
Since Jun 16: 57.0% win rate, +5.8% avg CLV. Last 30 days specifically: +6.4%. Same method as before — implied probability vs. Kalshi's close, not raw line movement.
Sticking with Kalshi as the anchor for consistency rather than switching mid-sample, even though I know the fair-value debate (Pinnacle vs. Kalshi) is a real one.
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Quick follow-up on the CLV numbers — 30-day window is finally distinct from inception now, for anyone who pointed out the sample was too thin to split out yet.
Since Jun 16: 57.0% win rate, +5.8% avg CLV. Last 30 days specifically: +6.4%. Same method as before — implied probability vs. Kalshi's close, not raw line movement.
Sticking with Kalshi as the anchor for consistency rather than switching mid-sample, even though I know the fair-value debate (Pinnacle vs. Kalshi) is a real one.
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