If you have MLBTV or something similar you have a lot of choices. Try this: Every single day watch the worst possible matchup. Twice if you can (early/late). Ignore your favorite team, or the best matchup of the day, because you won't see anything you didn't expect to (other than success/ failure). By watching the bad matchups, especially when the horrible team wins, you can appreciate just how difficult the game is, and how far out in space it is to think the great team (in your opinion) should just slaughter the "weak" team every time out. Once you accept the fact that on any given day any team can win or lose you gain a different aspect on high odds, the run line, and every losers favorite "the fix". It just ain't so and the sooner you realize it, the better. Personally, right now I am watching Braves/Astros and that is about as bad a matchup as you can get. No surprise if the Astros win, but there is something to be gained by seeing, if it happens, the Braves put up a fight and win, or threaten to. FFT
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
If you have MLBTV or something similar you have a lot of choices. Try this: Every single day watch the worst possible matchup. Twice if you can (early/late). Ignore your favorite team, or the best matchup of the day, because you won't see anything you didn't expect to (other than success/ failure). By watching the bad matchups, especially when the horrible team wins, you can appreciate just how difficult the game is, and how far out in space it is to think the great team (in your opinion) should just slaughter the "weak" team every time out. Once you accept the fact that on any given day any team can win or lose you gain a different aspect on high odds, the run line, and every losers favorite "the fix". It just ain't so and the sooner you realize it, the better. Personally, right now I am watching Braves/Astros and that is about as bad a matchup as you can get. No surprise if the Astros win, but there is something to be gained by seeing, if it happens, the Braves put up a fight and win, or threaten to. FFT
Great post and I appreciate the advice. Do you wager on ST? At what point do you start wagering on the regular season?
About the 15th or 20th I start to have a few but I wait until the starters are going longer and most of the minor leaguers have been reassigned. Most of April I will have a game a day, then we'll see.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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Quote Originally Posted by OGHowie282:
Great post and I appreciate the advice. Do you wager on ST? At what point do you start wagering on the regular season?
About the 15th or 20th I start to have a few but I wait until the starters are going longer and most of the minor leaguers have been reassigned. Most of April I will have a game a day, then we'll see.
Do you see any young pitchers early on flying under the radar?
Another question if you don't mind is about Zack Greinke. He goes from a pitcher friendly park in LA to a hitters park in AZ. He goes from the best pitch framing catcher in Grandal to the worst in Castillo. Any concerns?
The books usually tag him w/ some heavy juice in his starts. We could get a nice price on the dog he faces, that is ofcoarse if he regresses at all because of those factors. I see you are from Arizona and should hear more than others.
Thanks and GL
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Key
Do you see any young pitchers early on flying under the radar?
Another question if you don't mind is about Zack Greinke. He goes from a pitcher friendly park in LA to a hitters park in AZ. He goes from the best pitch framing catcher in Grandal to the worst in Castillo. Any concerns?
The books usually tag him w/ some heavy juice in his starts. We could get a nice price on the dog he faces, that is ofcoarse if he regresses at all because of those factors. I see you are from Arizona and should hear more than others.
I will just add, if you have MLB TV with feeds from both the home/away teams, and are watching your favorite team, try watching it with the visiting announcers. This will give you a different perspective rather than your "homer" local guys and will give you better insight into the opposition which is the team you need to familiarize yourself with more.
I do agree you should be watching random games especially bad teams instead of just your favorite team. I've gotten into a habit of watching a random spring training game like Houston/Atlanta and researching the 2 teams deeper as I watch. Whether it's a book, magazine or website, I'm browsing the roster, checking stats and looking at the minor leagues and prospects to get a better understanding of who I'm watching.
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Great advice Key....I couldn't agree more.
I will just add, if you have MLB TV with feeds from both the home/away teams, and are watching your favorite team, try watching it with the visiting announcers. This will give you a different perspective rather than your "homer" local guys and will give you better insight into the opposition which is the team you need to familiarize yourself with more.
I do agree you should be watching random games especially bad teams instead of just your favorite team. I've gotten into a habit of watching a random spring training game like Houston/Atlanta and researching the 2 teams deeper as I watch. Whether it's a book, magazine or website, I'm browsing the roster, checking stats and looking at the minor leagues and prospects to get a better understanding of who I'm watching.
Do you see any young pitchers early on flying under the radar?
Another question if you don't mind is about Zack Greinke. He goes from a pitcher friendly park in LA to a hitters park in AZ. He goes from the best pitch framing catcher in Grandal to the worst in Castillo. Any concerns?
The books usually tag him w/ some heavy juice in his starts. We could get a nice price on the dog he faces, that is ofcoarse if he regresses at all because of those factors. I see you are from Arizona and should hear more than others.
Thanks and GL
Interesting point, but I think a lot of guys are going to misjudge
that. Many, if not most, people think of Clayton Kershaw as the #1 ace pitcher
in MLB. That may or may not be true, but even if it is the drop off from
Kershaw to Greinke is not from a #1 to a #2 as we usually see it. We are not
talking about say, Miami, where you go from Fernandez to Chen or Koehler. In
the Kershaw/Greinke situation is from 1 to 1.01, and even that may be
explainable due to the fact Dodger Stadium is not only a pitcher’s park, it is
actually more lefty friendly than righty friendly, as are all the true West
Coast Parks.
In my head to head and quality start quality rankings
Kershaw was 24-9 h2h and 28-5 for quality starts with a ranking of 89.5 points.
Greinke was 20-10 h2h (compliments to the guys he was matched against) and 28-2 for quality starts, 82.4 points. That
does not take a back seat to anyone so the concept that the D-bax are elevating
a #2 to a #1 role is probably false to begin with. We are talking about a guy
that had a winning record and took home a Cy Young with the Royals, when they
couldn’t beat anyone or challenge for the division. That is NOT a #2.
As for Chase Field, a hitter’s park is mostly so for two
reasons and a fly ball-non strike out pitcher will have his troubles, but think
“Curt Schilling” and “Randy Johnson” and the problem disappears. Greinke is a
strike out-ground ball pitcher and the park will have little effect on his
results. Greinke is on that unique level of excellence where your greatest
enemy is not the park, the hitter, or the umpire. It is only yourself and if you have your stuff
on any given night the rest is irrelevant.
As for “pitch framing”, I think that is more fantasy than
reality. Major league umpires got there the same way the players did, by being
the best at what they do, and seldom do they let “pitch framing” fool them.
They watch the ball as it enters and leaves the home plate zone and the
judgment is in the brain before the catcher has any time to “frame” anything.
Just more meaningless garbage for amateurs and announcers to ponder, but
basically worthless.
If Greinke’s stats go up a tad with Chase as his home park
it won’t be surprising but it won’t affect results a great deal as the other
guy, his opposite number, also has to pitch in the same park, just as both did
as he compiled the 20-10 h2h and 28-2 quality start records.
The main thing to remember is that the guy is a #1, top of
the rotation ace, and both guys have to pitch in the same park.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Key
Do you see any young pitchers early on flying under the radar?
Another question if you don't mind is about Zack Greinke. He goes from a pitcher friendly park in LA to a hitters park in AZ. He goes from the best pitch framing catcher in Grandal to the worst in Castillo. Any concerns?
The books usually tag him w/ some heavy juice in his starts. We could get a nice price on the dog he faces, that is ofcoarse if he regresses at all because of those factors. I see you are from Arizona and should hear more than others.
Thanks and GL
Interesting point, but I think a lot of guys are going to misjudge
that. Many, if not most, people think of Clayton Kershaw as the #1 ace pitcher
in MLB. That may or may not be true, but even if it is the drop off from
Kershaw to Greinke is not from a #1 to a #2 as we usually see it. We are not
talking about say, Miami, where you go from Fernandez to Chen or Koehler. In
the Kershaw/Greinke situation is from 1 to 1.01, and even that may be
explainable due to the fact Dodger Stadium is not only a pitcher’s park, it is
actually more lefty friendly than righty friendly, as are all the true West
Coast Parks.
In my head to head and quality start quality rankings
Kershaw was 24-9 h2h and 28-5 for quality starts with a ranking of 89.5 points.
Greinke was 20-10 h2h (compliments to the guys he was matched against) and 28-2 for quality starts, 82.4 points. That
does not take a back seat to anyone so the concept that the D-bax are elevating
a #2 to a #1 role is probably false to begin with. We are talking about a guy
that had a winning record and took home a Cy Young with the Royals, when they
couldn’t beat anyone or challenge for the division. That is NOT a #2.
As for Chase Field, a hitter’s park is mostly so for two
reasons and a fly ball-non strike out pitcher will have his troubles, but think
“Curt Schilling” and “Randy Johnson” and the problem disappears. Greinke is a
strike out-ground ball pitcher and the park will have little effect on his
results. Greinke is on that unique level of excellence where your greatest
enemy is not the park, the hitter, or the umpire. It is only yourself and if you have your stuff
on any given night the rest is irrelevant.
As for “pitch framing”, I think that is more fantasy than
reality. Major league umpires got there the same way the players did, by being
the best at what they do, and seldom do they let “pitch framing” fool them.
They watch the ball as it enters and leaves the home plate zone and the
judgment is in the brain before the catcher has any time to “frame” anything.
Just more meaningless garbage for amateurs and announcers to ponder, but
basically worthless.
If Greinke’s stats go up a tad with Chase as his home park
it won’t be surprising but it won’t affect results a great deal as the other
guy, his opposite number, also has to pitch in the same park, just as both did
as he compiled the 20-10 h2h and 28-2 quality start records.
The main thing to remember is that the guy is a #1, top of
the rotation ace, and both guys have to pitch in the same park.
Great points I especially like the Johnson and Schilling points and Greinkes ground ball rate.
I was second guessing my D'backs over wins bet when hearing the angles on pitch framing, and Chase being a hitters park. There may be other reasons for the bet hitting or not, but this gives me a clearer perspective.
Thank you sir
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Great points I especially like the Johnson and Schilling points and Greinkes ground ball rate.
I was second guessing my D'backs over wins bet when hearing the angles on pitch framing, and Chase being a hitters park. There may be other reasons for the bet hitting or not, but this gives me a clearer perspective.
Keyelement is good caper on covers, oder season 2014 rocky start oder season 2015 he was solid and very good capers on baseball. Mepersonallydo not likehis tipson the bigdogsof+160andmore,, oder good luck
0
Keyelement is good caper on covers, oder season 2014 rocky start oder season 2015 he was solid and very good capers on baseball. Mepersonallydo not likehis tipson the bigdogsof+160andmore,, oder good luck
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