Posted:
#1
751-747 +1883
CHW -1 -162
CLV U8 +102
SD U7.5 -104
SD -118
HOU -1.5 +100
9/26
Views: 357
Posts: 6
Posted:
#5
@stevex01
You are correct it may not work out for various reasons.
I did not expect them to get 6 runs in the first two innings of course.
That changed the whole dynamic of the game. Then the 9 runs in the last two innings no longer mattered.
But this late in the season with one team not having anything to play for and one team having everything to play for should lead to a low scoring game. At least on one side and that should be enough to keep the game under.
The numbers point this way as well.
KC 72o and 83u
CLV 76o and 82u
KC at home 37-39 to the under for -5.25 Units
CLV on the road 45-34 to the under for +7.5 Units
So, a slight lean to the under
Bibee last game against KC was 0-3 and stayed under.
Wacha is KC best pitcher and his last three outings have been under and four of his last five have been under.
His last 3 games against CLV have also been under.
When teams play an extraordinarily high-scoring game, the next game tends to be much lower of course.
The issue is the urgency CLV has and whether KC wants to close out the season at home on a high note of sorts.
Of course the issue this late in the season is if either team plans to go to the bullpen fairly early. CLV has a good bullpen but KC does not.
I still like the game to go under for a normal-sized play.
So, it is not necessarily a chase. It is just a setup I liked two days in a row. But I might be very wrong two days in a row.
Posted:
#6
I will also point out Wacha daytime ERA is 4.55 and nighttime ERA is 2.82.
His away ERA is 3.67 and home ERA is 2.93.
Bibee does not have any difference either way but he is the KEY here to me -- he needs a good outing for it to work I think.
The wind does not seem to be a factor at game time either.
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