Posted:
#1
375-339 +2587
NYY U7 +108
WAS O10 +105
WAS 1st5 -.5 +104
ATL 1st5 -.5 +116
NYM TT U3.5 +127
MIL -113
MIL 1st5 U4.5 -112
SD 1st5 -.5 +118
0
7/6
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Posted:
#4
@undermysac
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
U7 in Tampa for better juice instead of U7.5 -120? Best of luck today
U7 in Tampa for better juice instead of U7.5 -120? Best of luck today
If you are looking for CLV and positive EV then the U7 at plus money is better value.
Basically, the math is U7 +108 implied probability is around 48.1% and the U7.5 -120 is around 54.5%.
The issue is that you have to 'believe or feel' that exactly 7 runs will occur less than 6-7%. Normally, this is about 8-10% of the time.
The issue is with two very good pitchers do you want to try to maximize positive value or do you want to minimize variance knowing you will win all of the totals that end exactly on 7.
When the difference is, say, 15-20 cents then the value is generally on the half-run. But in this situation, when the plus money gets to around +105/+110 the longterm value is on the lower whole number.
Etc. etc. 
0
Posted:
#9
@undermysac
The issues are overcoming the normal expected % of landing on 7 exactly AND becoming +EV longterm on the differential.
For example:
U7 +105 start to lean U7
U7 +100/+102 is basically a coin flip
U7.5 -115 will usually be better longterm +Ev than U7 +103
U7.5 -120 or more the U7 is, therefore, better value.
In other words, the push at 7 is worth about 7-10 cents of value.
So, here at these numbers I think you both 'beat' the 8-10% expected landing on exactly 7 AND get the longterm +EV between the two numbers and current juice.
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