Predicting Line Movements

I think this is a skill that everyone could benefit from, but one which is obviously incredibly difficult.

For the most part, I cap games early and have a pretty good idea of who I will be on the day before the actual game. So I have lots of time to shop and get the best available line. However, as most people, I have a lot of trouble predicting whether the line will move against me or in my favour.

I've been tracking the movement on the games I play and it seems pretty split. At this point, it looks like it is slightly to my advantage to play games as early as I can. I imagine this is because I play mostly dogs and the majority of dog lines get more attractive the longer the market is open, however, I don't have stats to back that up, that's just my impression. With that being said, I would ideally like to be able to try to predict which games will move in which direction, and I can't say I've found any sort of pattern yet which would allow me to predict this with much more than 50% accuracy. Is it just a "feel" thing which you get better at over time? Or do people actually have methods for "capping" line movements?

All thoughts are welcome, as long as they are at least somewhat educated.

And re. the OP, yes, some people do have models/predictors to predict line movement.  And yes, it's a lot more than just feel.  

For squares it is always going to be 50-50. Sometimes the line moves in your favour and sometimes it will move against you.

Take todays 9 basketball games for example. Since the opening lines were posted last night 3 of the favourites have gone higher and 2 of the dogs in NBA and in college 2 have gone higher and 2 have dropped.

If you could predict the way the line moves more than 75% you should be a pro or working for a book.

Can't you just track movement across, say, 10 different major books, and see where the line is trending across those sites, and then make a play based on that?

Keep a look at the Off-Shore Lines...

https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/offshore/


They tend to panic first, before the Vegas Books.

I don't know about " panic " first. I would hazard a guess that it is because they get hit first and with sharper money because they have bigger limits than many Vegas books.

Just knowing line movement is not necessarily the only factor you need. It is better to know when the sharp money is causing the movement.  For example, in soccer---especially smaller leagues---you can get a good feel for when this movement is.  Every league is unique.  Sometimes the sharp money comes in during working hours for normal folks.  Then when folks get off work and go by betting shop---you will see a totally different line movement.  This is the average square movement. I know a few soccer guys that use this completely. But it is also the same with other sports. But it is much harder with sports like nfl to get a grasp on it because it is so consistently bet with usually solid lines. So always keep in mind that just knowing the line movement ahead of time would only guarantee you get the best price for your side; it does not guarantee your side is the correct side.  Hopefully that makes a little sense. 

I would think for starters you'd want to monitor multiple books over time and get a feel for how they approach things.

Thanks to everyone for their comments thus far. Hopefully I don't miss anything.

Hutch > Thanks for the information. Hopefully one of the people that uses a model to predict movement will chime in here.

Syd > I agree with you, and I'm not hoping to be able to predict line movement 75% of the time. I think anything over 50% would be an advantage.

GTrain > I think you are probably correct in theory. The problem, I believe, is that there are only a few reliable books at this point. My feeling is that Pinnacle and probably other books like 5Dimes will be the first ones to move because they will be getting hit with the most money. It will be the crappy books where your money isn't safe that will be the last to act. This is just my speculation, so if anyone wants to correct me feel free to jump in. My work has strictly been based on Pinnacle lines.

Raiders > I'm not concerned about the side. In this thread I'm assuming that I'm happy with the side I am choosing, and am only interested in getting the best possible line on that side. I certainly appreciate your thoughts though.

Correct.  Usually.  For example, you watch the same NBA games the average guy does.  I know people that say they have to be right because line has moved in their favor.  I tell them it is not that easy.  You watch the same guys all the average guy watches.  Now...if you know it is NBA sharps (or you highly suspect) moving the line---that is a different story.

If you take sharps out of the equation---would you want to be on the side of the majority of average bettors?  Probably not---because lines are set to take their money. 

Always some exceptions of course.  And like I said it is easier to see with less volume bet sports.  But it is there in the majors as well. 

Meant you watch the same games as all the others watch.  For example, these 'experts' and analysts that break down every NFL game and college game.  They watch way more than we do.  But their picks every week do not indicate it. Etc. Etc. 

Is it possible to track which books are triggering the trends, and then pin-point which books tend, over time, to be more accurate with respect to different sports, and then use this information as an indication of which books have sharp money for which sports, and then use that information to say:

Somewhat--some Asian syndicates are known to use certain books I think.  And others are known to have sharps in ceratin soccer leagues.  Not sure about our main sports here.  I am sure there are some folks that have a better idea on this.  But so much of it has to be pure speculation I imagine, just so it is not obvious.