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Why is UNC favored over Duke?

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
And why is Vandy only 14 point favorites over porous Wake Forest? Vandy will win by 35 points.


What am I missing? 
 
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Posted: #2
My first observation was like yours. I have noticed a lot of the better cappers in here think UNC is a steal. I have to stand back and think about it now.
 
Legend
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by TrebIecyde:

And why is Vandy only 14 point favorites over porous Wake Forest? Vandy will win by 35 points.


What am I missing? 

Well if you think Vandy will win by 35 points, then you should be betting the game. BIG! 
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #4
vandy's offense isn't very scary.  no way i'm laying 14 on them.

 
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Posted: #5
I'm all over Vandy, they're gonna kill Wake Forest. I'll be surprised to see WF get to 10 pts.... But the Duke/UNC line is fishy, I'm wondering what I'm missing. Duke is the better team.
 
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Posted: #6
carta-samuels is dog crap. grobe will have Deacs ready. 
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by TrebIecyde:

And why is Vandy only 14 point favorites over porous Wake Forest? Vandy will win by 35 points.


What am I missing? 


I can offer several sides to the UNC as a favorite argument:


Pressure. All the pressure is on Duke to win this game as it could (unbelievably) put Duke in the ACC Championship vs FSU. This is unprecedented for Duke to be in such a situation. All that stands in there way is UNC who has already qualified for a bowl game. Duke in the ACC FOOTBALL championship game? Yikes, pressure.

Revenge. Duke beat UNC last year, and this could be UNC's signature win to gain a berth in a more respected bowl game (possible Chick-fil-A Bowl in nearby Atlanta) Fedora made last years loss top priority after the ODU win this weekend: 

The game film is on a constant loop throughout the Kenan Football Center since Saturday, appearing on televisions in the weight room, training room and locker room, according to freshman wide receiver Ryan Switzer.

The reason?

“Just so they wouldn’t forget,” Fedora told reporters on Monday.

Peaking. UNC's offense has peaked with the emergence of Marquise Williams strong performances and special team accolades of Switzer, who leads the NCAA with 414 yards and 4 TDs in punt returns. Add in the defense has really come to play after a slow start. The team is packed with NFL caliber talent.

Regardless, will be a good watch.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
^ quality writeup. and O peaking is an understatement even if u take out boatrace v ODU. like it. gl. 
 
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Posted: #9
Vandy covers and wins by 21 easily. SEC action. Don't get it f'd up.

Duke/UNC - I like UNC covering. Duke scraps every game and UNC hasn't been consistent this year. Rivalry game... makes it a 7-10pt game in this cold arse weather. If anything I like the over on this one.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Looking at their schedule, Duke doesn't seem to be an up-and-down team and so they don't seem to be subject to letdowns.  Their losses came to GT, a team that historically puts out a different product every week, and Pitt.  I didn't watch either of these, but I was told that the Pitt QB had the game of his life when they played Duke.

Duke had big wins against VT and Miami and came out and handled their business in the weeks after, albeit against very weak opponents.  Duke struggled early in the game last week, including a TD which seemed to be given to Wake by the refs, but when you consider that Wake had an extra week to prepare, I don't think it makes them look that bad.  The oddsmakers set up the Duke-Wake game as a trap but were trapped themselves (although the final spread was 7).

I've now watched Duke play VT, Miami, and Wake and they're a real team.  UNC is playing well, but are they really better than Duke?  I don't know as much about UNC.  This game is obviously fishy and I'll probably stay away.

I wish someone could give a specific breakdown on matchups.  That's not really my thing.
 
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Posted: #11

UNC and Duke are pretty even teams.  I wouldn't give either team an edge on a neutral field, but since it's at UNC they are favored. 

It's a tossup game.  Don't overthink it.

 
 
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Posted: #12

Put it this way, the ACC Coastal division has 6 teams that are ranked between 30-50 according to sagarin ratings.  All these teams can beat each other on any given day.  (VT, Miami, GT, Duke, UNC, Pitt)

This has been one of the most competitive divisions in the NCAA year after year.

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