Week 6 Money

NUI defense is very suspect though - either way I could see NUI scoring a ton of points

Any thoughts on UCF game WahooS?

Also, you taking the 10.5 or 11 on Georgia or gonna tease it?

Thanks

Would love to hear you thoughts on this topic whenever (whether it be another day or not, lol)...

This square/sharp/joe-public/pros/whales talk has persisted for years on forums like these. It took me 15 years to slowly and painfully come to the conclusion that it is all irrelevant. When I first started wagering in early college I was the literal the definition of a HUGE SQUARE. (The only gambling term I still fear and hate to see others be). I consistently took all favorites from road games to home games. I consistently took huge dog lines that IMO where too good to be true; and continued to lay bad numbers on both sides of the spectrum. I chased and refused to adopt a betting strategy. After being a complete "square" for years I thought I had wised up. I began to chase what I perceived as smart money, line moves, and fading the public blindly. Lol, I think this made me more square than before!

Regardless; diatribe cut short, in my opinion it is best to play with gut, knowledge, and spot plays. Trying to figure out "who Vegas wants to win" or the next "trap play" will only leave you chasing your tail. Just ask bettors chasing South Florida or Jacksonville Jaguar money. That said, I still tend to lean towards a more contrarian style, but I'm always all ears to selections that are just plain winners.

Bottom line is that I believe a square is simply one who refuses to look at the other side of a wager and or one who continues to take bad numbers when better were available. Simply a recipe for disaster.

Just love hearing thoughts on this topic.


Good luck this week.

Great threads guys, thanks wahoos for your input. As a newbie I had a question. If the line is -5.5, do I need to win by 6 or 6.5 to win the bet?

thoughts on East Carolina vs Middle Tennessee? 

"You know that type of guy that says "Vegas doesn't give out free money, that's why they build casinos", what those jackasses don't realize is that Vegas doesn't build casinos from sports wagering, they build them for hotels & table games, sports wagering isn't even a factor in the grand scheme of things at the vast majority of casinos in Vegas."

Wahoo - very curious for your thoughts on this.  I tend to think the books do very well w/ sports betting. Yes, casinos make a killing off slots, table games, and stupid high rollers.  But sportsbooks aren't a loss leader.  

Just look at the $$ made by offshore web-based gambling sites that don't offer much else.  Virtually all the offshore sites - bwin, bet365, william hill - pay tons of advertising dollars. You see their names on jerseys for all the English soccer teams.  That's all paid by sports betting.

 

hey Wahoos how many more pts would u take these picks?

of course most books win bro, they have 10% juice on their side

sports bettors don't lose because they can't choose the correct side, they lose because of juice and poor money management, anyone can choose 50% correctly and the best in the world choose 60% correctly

another topic for another day, I will start a thread in my down time & we can all discuss the "myths" that are out there

A good friend of mine is a casino auditor in Vegas.
It's true that Sports book don't make as much income as
other parts of the casino network. Square footage devoted to vegas sports books have diminished slightly over the years.

I don't highly recommend Georgia to anyone, I was honestly all set to back the Vols this week because of the spot being great for them, was expecting a line of 18ish because the Vols have been so bad all season but it would seem that the oddsmakers have adjusted the line and at 10ish I have to back Georgia, this is more of a line bet for me going off my numbers, I'm well aware of the spot for Georgia not being the best

the lone reason I'm not hesitant to back them at -10 is the one loss they have, Murray came back to play for a national title, those kids know they can't lose again and for that reason alone, they should give the Vols their full attention, that's what I'm hoping

the UGA defense is a weakness but I'm not sure the Vols can exploit that enough, I'm going with my numbers and backing a team in a less than ideal spot


the OU game I would recommend up to 15.5 according to my numbers, I personally think OU dumptrucks TCU this week, that's my opinion, bet at your own risk & decide for yourself

Fellas... WV will cover this week. Take it to the bank! 

Hmfic---

If wv can score 24 then they have a chance, I see alot of guys thinking their defense is good because they slowed down OU with the knight & osu at home , that myth will get exposed this week going down to Waco , Baylor scores a minimum of 44 & more than likely will get 50+, wvu will not be able to stop them in my opinion

Best of luck with your play

Hi Wahoos!

Covers win--

Fresno defense sucks but offense will hit 50 most likely , would only consider them or over

Nc -- no thanks, how will they score unless Logan Thomas throws picks?

Sdst-- maybe, I lean under there

UVA -- they are bad but gut feel says they beat ball this week, no evidence to back that as ball st seems much better

Oregon-- no d Thomas playing & they never try to score late, prob still cover though, should be close to number


Best of luck

Wahoos- any more thgt on second half of tease with NCST?

Gray--

I'm working on it, had a couple business matters to handle first, I'm doing my work on the games tonight & tomorrow, thinking your Stanford call will probably be a good tease with nc st

GL WahooS mah man stay Hot Much Respect

Like Indiana, Maryland, Arz St, & Kentucky 

Mac- i was just looking at Indiana ML to put with something else for my weekly parlay, do u see them winning the game outright or a squeak by cover? 

Is the only play so far Oklahoma?

Wahoo, great insight as always.  I'm with you on a lot of your leans.  If you don't mind could you give me your input on these additional games I'm looking at?  

Sooner- just wanted to point out that Tech has not owned Kansas recently, in fact it seems that the only time Kansas steps up is when they play tech? I'm on Kansas with 18pts this week and I like my chances on this one....

Play number 3

Nc St -1.5/Stanford -.5
2 team 6.5 pt tease that graymatter & I came up with, I don't bet many teasers but feel this one has a good chance, just need both to basically win

Adding a few totals & probably 2 more sides, should be a 7-8 kind of card with some halftime money sprinkled in during the week, will update lean list shortly

lets cash this teez!!!!!