Week 4 Picks and Why

We had another winning week last week as we went 9-3 (includes a parlay and a teaser graded as 1 play each) overall record is 17-11.   Let's look at some numbers:

                Sjst  85 21 97 165

-14     Wash St  22 125 35 54

In this game the line opened at -14 for Wash st went down to 12 and back to 13 currently.    Wash st is better in total off at 22 vice 85; sagarin rank at 35 vs 97 and better in sagarin sched strength at 54 vs 165.    Sjst is better at Td at 21 vs 125.    

What's it all mean - nothing until you compare it to history.     Based on previous history with an opening line of 14 for the home team and this scenario where the away team is better only better in Total def with a wide margin - the away team usually coveres and very often wins it on the Mline.     My plays to start out the week:

1.  Sjst  +13   

2. Small parlay Sjst +395  to Smiss +185 = pays 13 to 1   

Good luck all

Should have a better than even shot at covering that imo

Go SPARTY!

@fubah2

 I

hope so best of luck to ya 

@TheBuddah

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks bud .    Come on Sjst….. win it for me on the moneyline !!!!!

Come on sjst……… you can win straight up get it done !!!!!!!’

@TheBuddah

 You're not the only one on the ml ,

Damn Sjst had their opportunities to take it on the mine.   Moving on.    

3.   Nc -11

4. Ky-20

@TheBuddah

BOL today buddy!!

@FelixFermin21

@BiaSaigon

 Thanks guys and back at ya

5. Iowa st -20

6. Smiss +6

7. Small mline Smiss +190

Rest of my plays for Wk 4 - nothing impressive so tread carefully:

8. BC -4.5   not sure why line dropped haven't seen any news - someone know something please share.

9. Mia Fl -17

10. Iowa -3  

11.  Tenn -7  

12 Tex -43.5  

13. Tex am -22   

Lot of favs but that's what the numbers are saying.   Good luck all