Week 10 Lines Discussion

The greatest time of the year and it goes by way too fast. Once its over I just miss the process of going through all the matchups and finding the angles. The time spent looking through all the data, identifying an edge, and then watching it happen is what I really love about this. The money keeps the score. 

As usual, I havent bet all these yet, but these are the leans and interesting games that could become plays. I will note the ones I have bet so far. 

TEX -2.5 - Already played this. Ive been against Texas several times this year, including last week. I see that incredible come from behind epic collapse by MSST as being a huge confidence boost for a team that has been struggling mightily. I expect a much better effort in this game now at home and possibly some regression from Vandy who has been playing at an extremely high level. Positive regression for Texas and negative regression for Vandy here. 

OSU -20.5 - I guess this could be a big game for PSU just to try and play spoiler of some kind but I just dont know how they score. Most likely if I do play this at all it would be OSU 1st half

UCF +4.5 and ml +165 - This one I have played already. UCF runs the ball well and have played well the last 3 games. They held a good Kansas offense in check holding them to 27, then held Cincy to 20, then blew out WVU 45-13. They are returning from bye here and Baylor heads home after 2 straight ugly road games where they gave up 42 and 41. 

VT +10.5 and ml +300 - I did bet this one. Here we have another one of these ACC games with inconsistent teams weve been doing amazing on all year. None of these teams are good laying big points, especially on the road. VT just plays way better as a dog. LOU didnt even come close to covering, beating a bad BC team by only 14 at home. 

MD +22.5 - Lot of points to lay on the road w IND to a team coming off bye. Do I want to step in front of Indiana though? Probably not. 

CAL +3.5 and ml +160 - Another team in UVA making the long cross country trip from VA to CA and who is not good as a favorite. 

ARK -4.5 - What does MSST have left to give on the road after that epic collapse Saturday night? The piggies could be mad and give a solid effort after losing at home to Auburn. 

UK +10.5 and ml +350 - Already played this. Auburn is not a team with an offense to justify laying 10.5. They do play good defense, but this could easily be an ugly game coming down to the end like UK played against TX losing 16-13. After that heartbreaker they and got humiliated at home by TEN. Now they get to go into Auburns house to take out their frustration on the road. 

TEN -3.5 - OU just stumbled at home vs Ole Miss. Now they have to go to TEN who is off a confidence building stomp out of UK after losing to Bama. OU has lookahead possibility with Bama on deck, also on the road. 

Tennessee

Best wishes this week 

@spottie2935

 Thanks spottie  anything sticking out to you here?

Texas is now just -120 to win or 1.5 at the line. Is this just public love of Vanderbilt or something to look into further?  And Will the line continue to move I wonder?

I would imagine yes it has a lot to do with Vandy and Pavia being beloved right now. Pavia is like Baker Mayfield 2.0. And also has a lot to do with how badly Texas and Manning has stumbled Im guessing. Im not worried. I dont see how this line could move further than this, that would be shocking to me. 

There’s a guy called Arch on concussion watch right now. Is this a big deal?

Not to me, I dont care if he plays or not. I think Texas wins this game either way

I agree Candy has been awesome but their lines are getting less and less valuable to the point of betting opposite.  That’s why I Texas’s.  One on one matchups in most positions have to favor Texas. How it plays out? Candy on the road and not even +3 is insane against a high team that has elevated recruiting.  

I’ll have to see it to believe it. 

Virginia Tech was fortunate last week to escape down 20-10 at one point against a Cal team I do t respect much.  I don’t like lucky favorites that covered the previous week. Cal gave  up over 350 rushing yards last week and almost won the game.  VTCH is not going to have that type of success this week. 

Cal passed for almost 300 last week as well.  
Vtch had their coach fired you know that, but also had players head to the portal.  Now I don’t know who the players are but that’s a team thing.  To play a Louisville team I just can’t see the fundamentals of Vtch hanging strong this week.  If Cal can get a 10 point lead on Vtch then Louisville will and Louisville can close the door that Cal couldn’t. 

Now Louisville has played a gauntlet of good teams but only one highly ranked team. Beat that Miami team though.  Louisville isn’t covering their spreads a lot this year though so it’s difficult to trust this team as chalk, know this though the favorite has a chance.  VTCH is not a good team in my opinion.  

Kentucky nice line too 

if Arkys D wasn’t so bad and Arky gave Auburn so many extra chances Auburn would/ should have lost. 

-10 to a Kentucky team that traditionally is known for for a better D.  They saw all the Arky dysfunction last week and if Kentucky can eliminate giving Auburn extra opportunities Kentucky should hang in there. 

The only unfortunate thing against this is Auburns Defense and at times Kentuckys offensive issues.  Scoring both of 14 us and will be important.  Can they hold Auburn under 27 points? I think so that’s why I like the line after a game Auburn was 100% gifted.  

Penn State has looked like trash and are playing like it. 

They still have elite recruiting and talented players even if it’s not at QB

Ohio state has seemingly some issues on offense but maybe that’s a hoax because of the opposing weak teams they faced. 

Penn State is a previous top 5 team that can and will still cause OSU problems. big and best opportunity to win a meaningful cup game for Penn State and I’m expecting their best focus and effort.  Will it be enough to win.  I’m betting moneyline so it could.  Do I truly believe it no of course not.  Do I believe +20 or anything close to this much is enough!? 100% yes I do. 

Indiana is risky but -20 on the road seems different to me.  They have no running showings like this in road games.  Can they? Yes they have the team.  I don’t believe it though.  Road games are different.  Do I load up against Indiana not so much.  It’s on my card but just because of the line.  Maryland is outmatched I’m betting cautiously 

Utah and Cincy waiting on 10 because +7.5 yo +9.5 isn’t significant to jump in early.  I can also wait for ingame. 

Utah was home last week to CU lined +13.5,+14 

compare that line to Cincy ranked #24.  Is Dampier back starting? I haven’t looked.  Maybe my mention of this game is not a good comparison to last week.  I dunno exactly know but the line and matchup have my attention for sure.  Probably won’t bet pregame but if I see something or a line I like I’ll bite. 

If the same Utah backup  QB starts I will certainly question the -9.5 line. He wasn’t tested and given so many opportunities last week.  That shouldn’t be the case.  He will be tested more but that’s not saying much. 

Yea thats a good point. Maybe Maryland is just worth a smaller bet here, and exactly what I was thinking laying 22 on the road is a lot. Maryland is no great team by any means but its not like this is Ball St or something like that. It feels like we've gotten to the point where books are just saying you want to bet Indiana? Well youre gonna pay big for it.

I appreciate your thoughts on Va Tech and I'm going to get off that game. I feel I overlooked how much players jumping ship will affect things there. 

I agree PSU has real athletes everywhere and if they are motivated they can definitely give OSU a game. Biggest worry to me I can see them giving OSU a game but a game where PSU hangs around on defense and cant score and that 14-3 late in the game turns into 2 late OSU tds when the PSU defense finally gives in and they lose 28-3. Probably just watch this one. 

I added more to my Texas bet also with the number coming down. 

Maryland is a good line opportunity that could go wrong and our mentalities are congruent.  The books taken it away a huge price here. 

Penn State possible shocker. All these OSU Covers ? Who is impressed with their te compared to past seasons.  Time will tell in that.  The Bug 10 yxbt tgat impressive this season.  OSU and Indiana are the leaders since Oregon lost at home.  

Asking a missy State team to win a road game  because the line is so close to 0 is not something I support.  They can stay close though.  Arky should have had no problem covering last week.  Will they be gifting this game too. If they score on what they are know for, scoring this could be a big win.  It also could be a debacle with a bad defense.  

Im betting Arky with a bad D should settle down and do what they should have don’t last week but it’s a little risky betting on a bad Defense. 

Probably difficult for you to bet against Wash State after I talked you out of an opportunity last week.  Just think about last weeks line though. +1.5 or +2 to Toledo? Why are the books so generous? That won’t happen again as now they are road chalk after and easy line and cover.  Last game looked to me like a set up.  This could be a switch and Wash state gets the stink. If you don’t like it pregame keep your eye on it during the game. I don’t see either team dominating.  +or-7 game either side. 

I still feel good about getting off that game though. After you said something I looked into it more and it made sense not to play it. Even before considering anything else, just the fact they returned home after 3 road games is pretty meaningful. And I agree that the Beavs would be the side I'd play here. They are a much better team at home. I was on them a few weeks ago too when Houston came in and almost got the win on the +300 ml. 

As for Miss St its definitely hard to see them coming together after that debacle and winning here on the road vs this Arky team that couldve won last week. Arkansas is a solid play. 

PSU moneyline does make sense. What else do they have to play for? This could be the max effort game of the year for them. If they can force some turnovers and maybe score on defense or special teams its certainly doable. 

Texas Tech on 3rd string Qb. K State trending up will play it in game no rush. I don’t see a domination either way.  I just have to confirm what I think is true. No need to climb on a dog against a division top team. 

Virginia is ripe for failure I just can’t play Cal.  They had their opportunity last week and 

@Yanasaur

 UCF has caught my eye as well. So has Cal.

Also looking at UAB with an interim HC and new starting QB. They lit it up against Memphis, and UConn isn't special. 

USC is 0-10 ATS as road favs outside the state of California. Nebbish needs a statement win. May get it.

Hawaii looks good as a short road dog at San Jose. They've already won in that role twice. 

Those are just a few that stand out. Still working on my own thread.

@Boisestateand8

 I thought UAB looked interesting too but its not rising to the level of a play for me. Wouldnt be surprised if they cover though. 

NEB is just yuck to me. I dont want anything to do with laying a TD on the road with USC and I dont want anything to do with backing Nebraska either. Gun to my head and I have to play this game I would go USC though. 

Hawaii games I just really never get into. Its so weird with their travel and I literally never see them play so they basically dont exist to me. 

Added:

MD +22.5 and ml +900 - Officially making this a play now. A small sprinkle on ml because who knows, it could happen. Indiana is 8-0 and I doubt they go undefeated and maybe they look ahead to PSU and MD is coming off bye. 

ARK -4.5 - Officially a play now

Added:

TEN -2.5 - Officially a play now

STAN +14.5 and ml +450 - Weird things happen when east coast teams go to Stanford. Pitt has historically found weird ways to lose games also. They are not a team used to laying 2 TDs +. Maybe they find a way to even lose outright here, wouldnt surprise me