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Week 10 Large Money

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:

Wahoo if you HAD to reconsider or eliminate one of the following plays, which would they be?

ASU/Wazzu over
TT/WVU OV
Michigan vs Rutgers. -22.5
LA-Tech vs North Texas. -29

I am feeling pretty confident about my Ducks over. It was 41-41 against ASU at the end of the 4th. This kinda correlates with ASU/Wazzu going over. So parlay in effect. What do you think?
I don't know the totals just yet and can't tell if you are liking the favorite or dog in each matchup, Rutgers & N Texas are the underdogs and you have minus points next to both

?
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:

Michigan State -5 at Nebraska has been just came out. Any thoughts?
it came out at 6 and was quickly bet down to 4.5 so the early grabbers like the huskers

my initial thought would be "why isn't the line 7.5?"  Michigan St has serious holes this year and have been lucky in some games but geez Nebraska is a disaster on wheels, they are a complete shiit show right now so I'd have to lean to Mich St knowing in the back of my mind I shouldn't be laying road chalk with them and their horrid ATS record

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Posted: #53
Unlikely, but any concerns on the sandwich spot for Troy?
 
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Posted: #54
Gracias amigo!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by Rambler882:

Unlikely, but any concerns on the sandwich spot for Troy?
not at the opening line I got, that basically says they win by 6 and I win, regardless of who they play next I don't think ULM will beat them, I think Troy will win by 17 if I had to predict an exact amount but this conference can be a touch unpredictable in my experience

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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:


would lean to points in the first two and to wolfpack in the 3rd one

I won't bother breaking down the LSU/Bama game because I'm gonna assault both of them and don't need the drama in my thread, I will only say if I were to bet the game then I'd have to lean to taking the points

same with the Ole Miss game but I do like the Ole Miss d-line to contain the Hogs rushing attack, may consider under in this one

I won't be betting any of those three unless something crazy happens in the next few days, hope you win them all



Thanks for the reply! Good luck kind sir 
 
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Posted: #57
You are razor sharp Cat Man. Like I said before it was only matter of time. 
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I don't know the totals just yet and can't tell if you are liking the favorite or dog in each matchup, Rutgers & N Texas are the underdogs and you have minus points next to both

?

I'm laying the points with the favorites 
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I don't know the totals just yet 

ASU/WSU total is 66
Cal/Oreg 76
TT/WVU 79
TCU/Ok-St 79

I like that every total is right on or one below a key number. I don't see either of these being close. Unless there is rain. 

As for spreads, I am worried that LA-Tech hasn't won by more than 29 this whole season. To cover a large spread, you need a certain kick-a$$ attitude and motivation. Even if it is just NTexas or Rutgers. 
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Kurshka:

You are razor sharp Cat Man. Like I said before it was only matter of time. 
thanks Kursh, hopefully I can keep it going

I'm waiting for lines to settle now and will be on several very ugly dogs but I see great value and need to wait on a couple numbers 

you may not call me sharp after seeing some of these dogs I'm gonna put up
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:


ASU/WSU total is 66
Cal/Oreg 76
TT/WVU 79
TCU/Ok-St 79

I like that every total is right on or one below a key number. I don't see either of these being close. Unless there is rain. 

As for spreads, I am worried that LA-Tech hasn't won by more than 29 this whole season. To cover a large spread, you need a certain kick-a$$ attitude and motivation. Even if it is just NTexas or Rutgers. 
I personally would prefer La Tech in the first half but you may have to wait several days for that number

its hard to argue against overs on the others

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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:


ASU/WSU total is 66
Cal/Oreg 76
TT/WVU 79
TCU/Ok-St 79

I like that every total is right on or one below a key number. I don't see either of these being close. Unless there is rain. 

As for spreads, I am worried that LA-Tech hasn't won by more than 29 this whole season. To cover a large spread, you need a certain kick-a$$ attitude and motivation. Even if it is just NTexas or Rutgers. 
I may not see both TCU and Ok St putting up 40 so that one could be shaky

the Cal/Oregon game will be affected heavily if its a typical Nov rainy day in Eugene so check that out, also remember that Cal isn't trying to be super up tempo this year, they are running it more now that Lasco is back in the lineup

just keep on eye on those things and that weather 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by K1NG_BAMA:


Thanks for the reply! Good luck kind sir 
you are welcome, good luck with your team this weekend 
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Posted: #64
  • Tulsa -11.5
  • Troy -5.5
  • Toledo UN 61

I know this play will make MEGA happy as he loves unders more than life itself, I'm just seeing a running style game here with both being ok not making it a shootout, more of a gut feel and I hate unders but gotta roll with my gut, thinking this line falls tomorrow so grabbing it now, I'd take under any number 59.5 for those wondering

best of luck
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

I may not see both TCU and Ok St putting up 40 so that one could be shaky

the Cal/Oregon game will be affected heavily if its a typical Nov rainy day in Eugene so check that out, also remember that Cal isn't trying to be super up tempo this year, they are running it more now that Lasco is back in the lineup

just keep on eye on those things and that weather 

Thanks for the input  

Yes sir always check weather before betting an Over. 

Just thought about something, Oregon's starting QB is still out. But last week's result makes me lean over. The hypothesis is: 

  • Oregon still has an uptempo offense that only few teams can stop. 
  • Oregon cannot stop anyone, including FCS teams. 
  • Cal only stays under 28 if it runs much clock. Oregon won't stop em. 
  • Both teams are unrankes and have nothing to play for. So they will go out and have fun  Same factor goes for the ASU game.

That last factor may be opposite for the TCU/OSU game. 

Of course, all that will be voided if the weather shows me any sign of rain. 

Also, betting on overs is almost never about how "good" offenses are, or how "bad" defenses are. They come down to style of play. For example, for years, Texas Tech has been pass happy. Meaning the clock stops a lot. Also Tech can't stop anyone with a pulse. 

Baylor has a very good defense, yet they allow points because they score quick, which means more posessions. Time of posession is not a priority. 

I am banking on both TCU and Ok-St to have above average offenses that could score on all but the top D's. The only way I see either team staying below 38 is that they, themselves run methodical 5 minute drives.

So anyways, what about the speads? We fold LA-Tech? I am not betting the half. What about Michigan? I feel as if if Rutgers gets to 14-17, Michigan won't cover. 
 
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Posted: #66
Just saw your plays.
Tulsa now -16
Troy now -10
both at 5D. Wow, wish I'd looked yesterday............

Troy is obviously too risky at -10. BOL
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

  • Tulsa -11.5
  • Troy -5.5
  • Toledo UN 61

I know this play will make MEGA happy as he loves unders more than life itself, I'm just seeing a running style game here with both being ok not making it a shootout, more of a gut feel and I hate unders but gotta roll with my gut, thinking this line falls tomorrow so grabbing it now, I'd take under any number 59.5 for those wondering

best of luck
The last 3 have all fallen short of 60 so I think its a decent play GL this week and weekend 
 
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Posted: #68
wahoos would you still play Tulsa at current line?
thanks..
 
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Posted: #69
thanks for the last week game
SDst, Over App
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by cruisin:

Just saw your plays.
Tulsa now -16
Troy now -10
both at 5D. Wow, wish I'd looked yesterday............

Troy is obviously too risky at -10. BOL
yes, I wouldn't take Troy at 10, I would still take Tulsa under 17, they should get the money against that putrid UCF unit

I just added the under for toledo game also

so my 3 thus far

tulsa -11.5
troy -5.5
toledo un 61

I will adding lots of stuff as the lines settle, I wanted to make sure the forum could get my Large stuff at a similar or same line, I will also have at least 4-5 others I would think

not that alot of people tail my plays but if they do its best to have an online account with betonline if you want the similar opening numbers I get, I usually add the others by Sunday night or Monday morning so an account at 5dimes and a few others will work for that

this will be one of the rare times I wait for the forum, best of luck man, hope you win 

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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by BarneysDad:

The last 3 have all fallen short of 60 so I think its a decent play GL this week and weekend 
I think it gets the money, thanks BD 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by Vinhny:

wahoos would you still play Tulsa at current line?
thanks..
yes, at -16 I would pound Tulsa like a prom date 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Vinhny:

thanks for the last week game
SDst, Over App
yes sir, glad you won 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by m0rtgageguy:


Thanks for the input  

Yes sir always check weather before betting an Over. 

Just thought about something, Oregon's starting QB is still out. But last week's result makes me lean over. The hypothesis is: 

  • Oregon still has an uptempo offense that only few teams can stop. 
  • Oregon cannot stop anyone, including FCS teams. 
  • Cal only stays under 28 if it runs much clock. Oregon won't stop em. 
  • Both teams are unrankes and have nothing to play for. So they will go out and have fun  Same factor goes for the ASU game.

That last factor may be opposite for the TCU/OSU game. 

Of course, all that will be voided if the weather shows me any sign of rain. 

Also, betting on overs is almost never about how "good" offenses are, or how "bad" defenses are. They come down to style of play. For example, for years, Texas Tech has been pass happy. Meaning the clock stops a lot. Also Tech can't stop anyone with a pulse. 

Baylor has a very good defense, yet they allow points because they score quick, which means more posessions. Time of posession is not a priority. 

I am banking on both TCU and Ok-St to have above average offenses that could score on all but the top D's. The only way I see either team staying below 38 is that they, themselves run methodical 5 minute drives.

So anyways, what about the speads? We fold LA-Tech? I am not betting the half. What about Michigan? I feel as if if Rutgers gets to 14-17, Michigan won't cover. 
remind me to get back to you on this if I missed something earlier, my brain is going 80 different ways until all my bets are down for the week, I'm an ADD having fool and I miss people on here all the time, wish I could be more like Mega but I'm just not

I can't give advice on Michigan or La Tech game spreads, I'd only consider the La Tech first half and Rutgers is, well, Rutgers, they show up and fight some weeks and lay down in others, hard team to read for me


.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Toledo -8
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