To Spottie - Week 1 - Georgia Tech v Colorado

Thanks Spottie!    The @TAMU v UTSA pick at -21 (current line) looks appetizing!   Those Aggies have a chip on their shoulders with my undergrad alma mater Texas (BBA 1992) getting the national spotlight.   Normally the aggies come out flat, putz around, and pull away against over matched teams in week 1 at home.  They played Notre Dame tough last season in game 1 and lost.   UTSA is well coached.   But the talent delta is huge.   I will dig deeper into this matchup and provide the forum my perspectives.

My strength is not favorites but Rutgers and Purdue I really think have great chances to cover. 

UTSA covered 5 in a row to end the season but they were dogs in marginal matchups (ECU, Army, ect) 

TXAM on the other hand closed 2024 0-5 ats and faced difficult opponents.  

The diverging 0-5 ats facing 5-0 ats has to be some sort of line adjusts here.  I looked over the results.  It just seems to me that UTSA might be in over their skulls. 

@LonghornHoosier

 How would you rank your state of Texas Big 12 squads? 
Bears, Frogs, Raiders all seem to have a shot at the conference 

Fantastic win for Coach Prime swaying Rodney Colton Jr LB out of Newnan Georgia who was committed to Ole Miss… ATHLETICISM comes to mind. I think that’s the 3rd LB in this class…. Playing time immediately was persuasive from what I’ve heard. 
 
Buffs needed a jolt of energy 

Parker Narvarro is returning for Ohio but they do lose ALOT of their offensive production from last year - sent 2 guys to the NFL. Rutgers brings back almost everyone on offense, season opener at home with a reasonable spread against a MAC team. Plus Schiano isn't shy about scoring late, Rutgers seems solid. Hoping to get a -10 when limits go up but I doubt it.

@Laroja and @Spottie

i concur on Rutgers -10.5.   Could be the best fave on the board ATS…in week 1…

@JJWoods

 Deon is so polarizing because of his ego. You are correct in that he was one of the greatest athletes of his generation. He had confidence, swagger, and attitude....but guess what? He backed it up with his play. Now he is coaching with that same swagger and attitude but his team can't back it up. His teams at CU have been more concerned with social media and the whole "act" then they have been with winning. That's my general opinion and the same opinion as many who have watched them. It's the whole look at me attitude that people don't like. Being a great player doesn't mean he's a great coach. Anyway, not here to argue but wanted to answer your question as to why people have issues with him. As far as the game against GT, I think they are going to have their hands full with the Yellow Jackets running game. The question to me is if GT can remain composed on the road in what could be a huge game for them. Will the CU speed be too much? It's an interesting match up and I am with spottie in that I want CU to win and then have the media start hyping them up again before betting against them. I see a 6-5 team when I look at them. 

@blowoutgm

Thanks for the reply brotha  I don’t want to fill up Hoosiers thread with my thoughts on Coach Prime, and you bring up lots of valid points on the polarizing ego topic. Since you responded to me I will respectfully reply as I politely disagree with your assessment of Coach Prime. 
I believe he’s turned around a one time elite program in Boulder with total success. They’ve been embarrassed with some blowouts, and had some poor performances from a preparation and effort standpoint. They’ve also posted some hallmark wins over rivals and some impressive upsets.  Some of the reasons I feel Coach Prime is a great coach and player:

-Progression. CU 1-11 (2022), 4-8 (2023), 9-4 (2024)   
-Tie for Big 12 Champion and just missed playing for the Conference Title being upset by a hellbent Kansas team in Lawrence. Again the Buffs tied for best record in the conference. Blew out Okie state 52-0 season end.  
-Coached the highly respected and hard working Heisman Trophy Winner Travis Hunter    
-Turned around a terrible offensive line and had a defense believing in themselves and over achieving as a squad late 2024   
-Coached two sons, one on offense, one on defense…won’t see that again. 
-Shedeur Sanders broke numerous CU records under his supervision.. Hell he owns the All time NCAAF completion % at 71.8% must be some good coaching. 
-Phil Steele this year has Colorado’s 2025 Recruiting Class #1 in the conference…ahead of some hard working schools out of Texas   #1 is tough to beat.    2 HUGE hits at QB and LB  And he doesn’t haven’t the budget of numerous other NCAAF programs but has major respect in the Dallas/Ft Worth area and will continue to bring the best up north to the mountains 
-Stability. If I had a dollar for every syndicate claiming he was using Colorado to advance to FSU or another prestigious southern program I would have $200k.  The man has honored every commitment among the skeptics. Even turned down the NFL and Jerry Jones in Dallas. One would think his ego would want these high profile positions…nah. He’s sincere to CU and Boulder, even denying his Alma mater Florida St.  

I’m looking at a list of 6 other points supporting my man Coach Prime’s success as a HC but again don’t wanna invade LHH’s thread anymore.  One last tidbit is the social media and Nil hoopla and madness is here to stay…. Like it or not. I come from the old school too of Bear Bryant, Tom Landry etc. unfortunately I’m trying to embrace the new era. 

thanks brutha for the reply “blow it out GM”  

-JJWoods 

You actually think that chick is giving it up to Bill? Something tells me she is just someone to have on his arm to make him look good

Whatever happens this season in CU remember the quite non-existent coaches that ran CU into the worst college football team I ever witnessed.  Okay back in the day Northwestern might have them beat because of their losing streak before Dennis Green came in.  

No matter what happens to CU this season they are bringing in talent.  The front office is making big investments in the team.  The immediate surge was mostly because of Shedeur and Travis.  This season more adversity will occur without them.  

Deion isn’t the best x-o’s coach but he does being in the guys that fills those gaps.  Deion is well respected by many ex-NFLers and that should help maintain him. 

Ehy I think they are headed back this season is the big plays they will be missing and the lack of running game and complete roster. The team has holes.  Also though CU has a huge bright future and is getting attention from big time FOOTBALLERS. Those big time players aren’t committing yet because they haven’t seen the consistency.  

I don’t think Salter is the right guy to man handle this team like Shedeur did but if he does CU is once again underrated.  

Deion and CU’s future is being because being in the big 12 is the best option for them.  It should be much easier to consistently win games and that creates the hype that feeds his style.  

If Deion was in the 2 main conferences that would never happen.  

I also think having these gold jacket coaches and Robert Livingston is a big help. Without these guys it’s going to be more difficult to attract big talent. 

Salter isn’t a big guy and will be stepping up into much bigger defensive players.  If he runs a lot,  and he even said he will not as much, he could be victimized by injuries.  

Many uncertainties heading in but I love the money line in week 1 and early in the season Deion and company could very well end up in the top 25.  I am predicting this to happen.  Early in the season this hype train rolls on strong.  

IBELIEVE (early in the season).  Then when they are favorites and the lines and matchups become more difficult the regression will show.  

CU was a favorite in the bowl against BYU and BYU was one of my biggest plays last season.  Cu whooped a bad Okie State team and were big dogs against way lesser teams. Part of me following CU is the elevation that is still occurring and this season I see a possibility of a big crash.  

I don’t believe after week 1 Salter is the answer post Shedeur and I think a lot will be made once again of Pat Shurmur.  I think at times last season he was clueless but it wasn’t shown because Shedeur has his back. If one really paid attention to CU games last season the offense was dull to begin games.  That’s bad preparation.  

I could be wrong as it clearly wasn’t noticeable by most but this is what I saw and what I predict to be true this season.  

One running back transfer in,  a little speed guy.  Better offensive line but the running back talent better elevate.  The loss of Augustave might be negatively impactful as well.  Not a lot of running back depth. 

I my prediction early wins:

Gtch on the road week 1 win

Delaware win

Houston iffy could be 3-0

Wyoming win 4-0

BYU revenge iffy but if BYU’sQB issues it’s a possible 5-0 start.

Im not predicting 5-0 but as it looks it’s possible.  

They could also be 1-4 if im wrong so take my words with a grain of salt.

with all the hype this could create I’m predicting 3 early wins. And maybe 4 if lucky. Then the adversity and gauntlet begins. 

In the mundane early weeks college football usually has an interesting story they’ll have something to really talk about if CU starts 5-0. 

Georgia Tech isn’t one of the best ACC they are an upset type team. 

Delaware should be A win

Houston made improvements but they need time

Wyoming will give team fits but traditionally can’t score enough 

Who the heck knows about BYU,  Utah was bad last year when they were starting QB #3.  

im prepared for 4-1 even if I like under 6.5 wins because the back half of the season is where this incomplete CU team with holes will get exposed.  Then if the injury bug creeps in they don’t have and depth at some positions.  This will be a factor for them.  This is where to re-build stings. 

That Georgia tech offense is gonna be clicking. I would not sleep on them in this spot

@JozKnows

 I’m not sleeping on them.  I don’t have time and all day to explain every detail either.  Cap the game how I do I also use a line and in my opinion on home theft against a middle ACC team I’ll take the points 

Some of the stuff that plays out on the field can not be capped or seen before the game play.  

analyze this however  to make a valid point.  

bottom line it’s a good matchup and both teams have talent and holes.  I can’t argue getting again CU they have isssues of course fight back from 1-11 the worst team in a long time.  Losing 2 big time playmaker from last year.  

@spottie2935

 Your cap is solid, I just think I am higher on Ga Tech and lower on the replacements for the Buffs.

You may be into something in that I think whoever can run the ball better and control clock will control this game 

@JozKnows

 I don’t think you’re wrong.  You’re pouring into GTCh strong points.  The new CU linebackers are in for some adversity for sure.  

I have a better handle on CU because they have pulled me in.  Ad far as X and O’s and watching games like a business person should?  That’s not my thing.  I trust the past and I trust team history.  

If Georgia Tech can excel past their slim history on the road as favorites.  They beat me.  I just see a weakness in their program in these situations and I make them beat me.  

CU is a news story and it will be bigger news because they are dogs and that means they are not supposed to win this game.  That’s going to attract all the daily news and drama all week after this game.  They are something to talk about. 

70% or more  of the week one games have no flavor.  A CU win here and the buzz and hatred begins to elevate.  I can’t see CU losing this game right off the jump and this loss making them less of a story in weeks to come.  

week one dogs bark big in games that are not played on Saturdays.  What for this to take place once again this season.  

Here is a query in the early weeks for and away favorite ACC team that failed to win 8 games the previous season.  

These are typically lower profile teams that don’t typically get 5star athletes at high production positions.  Once in a blue moon a Calvin Johnson does occur but now that money is involved it’s even lesser likely. 

week<5 and AF and conference=ACC and division=FBS and line>-15 and tpS(W)<8 and season>2014 and total<64 and n:H

Georgia Tech didn’t win 8 games last season and these teams have only qualified in 24 game results here meaning that they don’t get an away favorite game when the line is between 0 and -15 very often. 

the results are 7-17 ats as a conference.  

When the line is -15 or less meaning higher line that’s when these ACC excel. 

Bottom line the way I categorize these typical .500 type ACC teams, they are much more worth of backing and covering as Dogs.  There is lots of past data evidence to prove that to be factual.  

Hopefully Coach Prime’s health holds up. 

Okay yes I agree but I don’t want this thread to turn into to something directly related to him.  

Your kind comment can quickly turn up some fleas. 

I am a fan of Michigan but I am a bettor first.  I don’t even comment much about Michigan.  Michigan are fades to me as favorites.  Now recently that hasn’t been the case but their recent success won’t be sustained to an excellent championship level season after season.  

Let Michigan fall out of the top 15 and be favorites I’ll fade them all day.  That’s my team though.