Spottie et al
What is your early take on Georgia Tech v. @Colorado? I know you have been a big advocate for Coach Prime since he arrived at CU. Now he enters year 3. As of 10 July 2025, GT is a -3.5 road favorite, playing at elevation, against a talented CU team, that lost some elite talent since last season. Would love to hear your thoughts and perhaps a lean ATS on this match up? Thank you in advance.
I posted in Step on a ducks thread on another site.
2025 CU will regress From 2024’s 9-4 record.
I have watched a ton of videos about CU in this off season and have my overall projection at under 6.5 wins. I think it’s 6 wins. seeing as we all saw what an upside down season it was for most Big 12 teams last season and add to that the off season transfer portal, it’s difficult to thumbnail each individual win.
CU’s difficult 2025 projection:
As you mentioned 2 big losses:
Shedeur and Travis Hunter.
Additionally big losses at Linebacker.
Only added a one significant Running back little speedster type from Incarnate Word.
Added a lot of beef on both lines. Added stud WR’s but that will be a rotation because many of these guys are either young or talented and didn’t play much recently.
My issues and questions: Pat Schumer without Shedeur. Shedeur made a lot of a in play adjustments last year. This season is going to show up or down for Shurmur. I’m not that confident in the play calling and improvisations to get the big plays or the first downs to get and keep the ball on offense.
Kaidon Salter in more than 1 interview reiterates that he wants to be more of a pocket passer this season. Now I have not seen any coaches confirm any of this but his mind is very clear on the so we will see. This could be an issue for a team that has very little history running the ball. If CU is going to have a successful running game I believe Salter has to be a big part of creating havoc for the defense. We’ll see on this.
Ju Ju Lewis the 4 or 5 star recommitted from USC but he is only 17 years old. He was able to
complete high school a season early. There are some videos of these guys on YouTube from this past weeks Big12 media preseason days. Ju Ju is going to play. How much and how well?
The only returning offensive lineman is 5star Jordan Seaton and he is clearly working on his frame. The new strength and conditioning coach is Andreu Swasey. While at Miami he was a big influence on several NFLers. The lineman are much bigger and should provide more stability. The issue is why are they transferring? I believe the line to gel and improve as a unit but they have no time together. The original thought is to get the run pass ratio normalized but We’ll see how it plays out.
The D lineman and secondary should be a strength this season but I see holes at Linebacker.
I don’t think highly of Deion as a sideline in game Coach. I think a lot of the holes CU has had were covered up by the 2 big losses and linebacker transfer out Hill Green to Alabama will impact the defense negatively. Especially getting key stops on 3rd down. Less stops less time on offensive.
I see a potential and expected week 1 game with penalties and mistakes and big plays but also times when no scoring happens and punts. How CU moves the ball and scores will be interesting to see. How I break this down is CU will try to run the ball but part of Georgia techs strength is stopping the run. That’s what I have listen to from the videos and articles I read. That being said so if CU wins this it will look like 2024 with big plays and great QB and WR catches. Thats what the people in the know think how to expose G.Tech.
Georgia Tech has very little experience being a road favorite and this is big big for me. I don’t trust these inexperienced teams. That is a signal they are inferior of climbing and elevating. Line data is most important to me and with so little scenarios is a huge G.Tech weakness.
I am betting confidently CU as a home dog in week one will avoid the point spread loss against a marginal ACC road chalk. CU has enough talent to make the big plays they will need to elevate past their mistakes and Penalties in this game.
I think if CU gets this cover the regression will begin because that will elevate them into favorites a lot and maybe the top 25 voters overreact to this win and elevate CU into the bottom of the top25. That’s when I reverse course on CU.
CU +4.5 and if GTch gets a lead and a bigger line I add more CU here. When CU is a favorite that’s when I’m no longer interested.
Here’s a video preview from the homer beat writers.
https://youtu.be/kSy-HTwED-Q?si=qGz8pmO8RgrnVYBW
LHH in most of your posts you mention a big part of what you trust and believe in is merit. GTCH is lacking in road favorite merits and until a team can prove themselves more consistently it’s not something I would get on board with. CU has holes still but they are also getting better balanced team and skill position players. Sloppy at times and penalties and undisciplined? Yes it will be issues for them until it’s not but they have the elite players to get wins at home as well.
Less than 7 point game if if if and big if for me if Georgia Tech wins. I don’t think this game will be easy for either team.
Zi want CU to win so bad. I still don’t think CU is getting the mentality that they can win this game and this game people will lose that mentality. That’s when the lines flip and be more difficult for Cu and that’s when the CU 2025 regression begins.
CU Needs a win here that’s my key.
CU is not my team. I’m not a fan boy of Coach Prime. They were a sure underdog stairs with availability to watch them develop into something. They will still improve but after game one fall short of the future hype and orojections the media will attach to this team after this win.
all hype is about the question about CU losing Shedeur and Travis that will all be gone and the big hype rolls in again.
After week 1 failure sets in. That’s how the books get us. We have to see it to believe it. We will see it in week one. Going forward? Maybe injuries or something changes because the last 2 season the injuries have not been significant to change wins into losses.
Looking at data Since 1990 GTCH has 23 games as a road favorites over 1A schools. 11-12 AtS in those games. This ended in 2002 so the history is not current but as a team looking at the broad picture it’s a telling signal about the program.
As road favorites again FCS schools
=+=+=++=+=+==+++
Last point on Gtch and it’s based upon this data. Lack of any consistent merits:
here>>>>>>>>
t:team = GTCH and AF and o:division = FBS and line >-9 and season>2014
GTCH IS 4-10 straight up and 3-11 ATS as road favorites since 2014 and line line was not as many as -9 and within these they are 1-4 ats and su if the line is <=-6 so from >-9 to -6 1 win 4 losses. They are not a historical team to trust as chalk against teams that can stay close as the line suggests.
In week 1 I think it’s preseason and its difficult to find dog winner because these teams don’t want to schedule even matchups
so what happens is margin teams that want money and attention take chances.
I have GTCH and Nebraska as poor historical teams laying points in week 1 that don’t have the history and merits to be minus any points until they step up and cover these road spreads. Until they do I’ll fade them and make them prove it to me.
CU+3.5 +4 +4.5 whatever line
Cincy +7 vs Nebraska. Nebraska is 35-58 SU since 2016 and in that time as a favorite 18-28 against their number. If the line is not as high as -10 they are 12-14 straight up and 9-16-1 ats.
Cincy fell apart last season at the end after a huge win as a favorite-5 line vs ASU yes a favorite over eventual Big 12 winner ASu then Cincy went in the dump. Cincy returns the QB from last season too but finishing 0-5 and 0-5 in their 2024 last 5 games here looks like they can’t play. They can. Nebraska has to step up and show me or I’ll collect and keep collecting against their lack of merits.
week 1 teams favorites with merits are trusted and true because the lines don’t make these games random. That’s why the books have inflate the games that look competitive but as I discover are not competitive against the lines.
in this example I’ll use top 20 teams laying big points again inferior FBS teams and this also includes inferior FBS schools. The lines must be -21 or higher making this game not competitive and at -48 it loses its power too many points to remain consistent. If the total is above 63 that usually is indicative of the opponent scoring more points so we avoid this games
rank<20 and week=1 and HF and -21>=line>=-48 and season>2013 and total<=63
favorite ats record here>>>>
40-17-2 ats
H and D and week=1 and o:division=FBS and n:H and n:F and season>2013 and no:division=FCS
22-12 and could trim the fat into something even better but already over 69% win rate is good enough because less tgan 40 results.
the power of these matchups is certain.
@spottie2935
Well done top shelf as always….
Colorado is once again in the spotlight and the circus that entails… some great information and views Spottie In my humble opinion I see a major delta in possible results. They could fall flat on their faces as would be expected after the magical season of a Heisman and almost making the playoffs in 2024 with a Big 12 championship.
Or, they could continue on their previous path and exceed expectations… what’s important to note is how hot this defensive unit was last half of the season. This guy DJ McKinney at CB will be playing on Sundays. The defense and schemes from last year are rarely mentioned when evaluating Colorado.
Something else to note (and I saw Spot mention it only Jordan Seaton returning) is the upgrade through portal on the offensive line which has been a disaster. Gelling always takes time but the talent is there for a change. These guys also have a high ceiling and potential as a unit after week 4.
ima fan of shumer and his QB development and I think Juju has unlimited potential. Dynamite electric arm and athleticism. Undersized, reminds me of a Kyler Murray. Hard to see em during the rush, then ZIP! If this kid can get a shot and I feel he will sooner than later we could see a superstar in the making.
Keep an eye on my man Jojo Williams! Joseph a 6’2” 200 lb wideout from Arlington, Tx will be a name to remember. American conference freshman of the year for Tulsa Hurricanes…. Awesome pick up and potential. Prime just gets the guys with heart and Jojo has the engine and desire.
Speaking of, and we all have opinions…Coach Prime in my opinion is 100% a winner. 100%. The man would win super bowls for different NFL teams, fly across the country to lead off for the Braves and is quite simply in the elite hall of famers of Ronnie Lott, Rod Woodson, and Ed Reed as the best DB’s to ever play. The man has never not succeeded at pretty much everything! He’s positive, he’s motivating, entertaining, respectful, religious (if that’s your jam) and the doubters, haters and criticism will continue, its inevitable. I have trouble understanding why he’s so polarizing…the dude was the greatest athlete I’ve ever seen live. Prime was a freak and backed it up his entire career. Sanders was tough as hell, his heart and dedication was unmatched and another honorable trait only the select few best of the best have. Work ethic will always prevail. Time to get to work again Coach 
GL this season Spot and Hoosier!
JJWoods
Forgot to add gimme Buffs +4 small kine as we await team updates. Altitude kicks in last 7 minutes and buffs cover with a 26-24 loss. Leveraging in with small amounts is best with these early plays and for me over the decades it’s wise to stick to action wagers and small plays until week 3.
Colorado hitting 7 wins does seem a reach with this schedule and the early disorganization occurring. I agree with Spot on the under 6.5 but hell no at -180+ too many variables. If it makes it to 6 (I think it will) it’s still too risky.
the one thing that stands out to me in CU preseason is questions and how they do without the Big production stars of 2024
Well with question they become s home dog and people trust favorites against the weaker looking teams. That puts CU line in this game as valuable. If CU wins, as I mention that puts all the trust in them again and the become less valuable. They will most likely be 2-0 heading into to Houston in week 3. That game they will probably be favored and I believe in the top 25. This game in Houston will be on ESPN.
I am targeting Houston in that game but CU first 2 games need to elevate them. It would be an added bonus if Houston looks not too great against Steven F Austin and Rice. Obviously Rice isn’t great but it an in state battle of 2 Texas teams. That might carry a bit of motivation?
Im trying my best to have an early projection on future lines and games. I have a good feel about this game.
Probably an unpopular take.....but Kaden Salter is a better QB than Shadeur. Hes got poise and has been around the block. He should have very good weapons around him and facing GT isn't going to scare him 1 bit....line is an over reaction to the Buffs losing 2 star players.....but it could be a little addition by subtraction.....the team won't have the Sanders/Hunter hype.....so more guys should get some action.....
That's a fair question...I am researching a few. Nothing booked yet...I call these leans... I welcome feedback...
Week 1
Texas Christian -3 over @North Carolina - Not a big fan of Dykes, but I think the line is a tad low...TCU has the QB, systems, and defensive mentality to win and cover. I realize NC opened as a 2 point fav and has crossed the line... Fueled I will assume by the sharps... I am not sold that Belicek will be a successful college coach...Tapping that young ass gold digging Grandpa Complex girlfriend of his, I think he lacks focus on football...Sans Brady, Belicek would not have won even one SB...New systems, new coordinators, new QB in week one...I think TCU is hungry...
Indiana -23.5 over Old Dominion - potential homer pick...IU won't surprise anyone this season...and yes the line is probably inflated due to IU's success last season...and ODU has a good coach and an experienced QB...I think Cignetti has reloaded in the portal and NIL...and is integrating a new QB (tr from CAL), which I believe will be plug and play...to go along with a nasty D...He seems to be the type of coach that will keep scoring well into the 4th period...in front of the home crowd...The domination that N Dame put on my Hoosiers reminded Indiana that its still Indiana...I think Cigenetti and his Hoosiers will want to assure the Indiana faithful that last year was not a one year fluke. That and I am sure Cignetti coached against ODU while at JMU when both were D2, in Virginia...And will want to make a statement...And yes, I am a homer (and an Indiana University - Bloomington alumnus MBA 2000), and a long suffering Indiana fan... I think Cignetti runs it up because he can...
Others I am researching in week 1, Alabama -12.5, and Nebraska -6.5 (though it concerns me that highly respected capper Bridge is on Cinci)...
How's that?
how’s that? Good.
I respect Indy and against lesser teams they are elite. I didn’t respect their merits last season and as I look back I was 3-5 against them and started 0-5. Indy and Army dented my record early but I got back against both of them late.
TCU these non Saturday dogs are elite. There’s little going on and no NFL. I believe , and the data supports it the non Saturday games are business games for bookmakers.
So far Rylan Raiola starts aren’t that great TD/Int ratio is .50-50. I think after this game and as the season progresses he will be much butter just not into laying points with Nebraska at 7-6 last season and 38-55 record since 2017. My ftiebd on another site clued me in on Rutgers. Take a look because Ohio is completely different from Quarterback back to coaching. Rutgers is heading north for me.
Also Purdue made a lot of moves they will be different. Ball AST is at best just over a .500 record in a good season, they never win anything in the MAC. Last season Vall St was 3-9 and double digit conference dogs 5 times. Purdue has the opportunity to pound them.
Favorutes I like
Rutgers
Purdue
Texas AM
Landon salter: I have watched a lot of CU videos. twice he has stated that he will not be running as much. He is completely dialed in to a better passing game and part of his decision to commit to CU is the focus on passing. He wants to make strides to elevate his NFL draft status.
CU didn’t and will not be getting elite quality running back commits until they show a stronger execution and focus to run the ball. Marshall Faulk being the coach might have some influence.
Georgia Tech sendary might continue their issues and CU run game problems will continue. Maybe during the Delaware game they address the run.
Established in 1995,
I’m hearing good things out of Waco 
Haven’t seen them mentioned as a team to watch…
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