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Odds of a 2020 College Football Season

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Captain
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Posted: #1

I know its early...Its painful that there are no sports to watch...What is your cap on having a 2020 college football season, before I get into my preliminary capping analysis of the 1st month...Yes, I understand that curtailing the spread of Covid 19 and the resulting loss of life is much more important than playing sports, and our capping those games, but just curious what you guys think will happen come the first week in September...

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Captain
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Posted: #2

My cap...75% chance that there will be college football played by early September 2020...

 
Veteran
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Posted: #3

100% there will be a college football season.  Question is, when will it start?

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Posted: #4

 

 I would say 90% or more. All depends when this thing goes away.

 

Question is how are people going to act after this is over? Business as usual or maybe a little skittish for awhile. It will be interesting.

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #5

My guess is 50% ....We should have already been on lockdown  but the orange lunatic thought it was a democratic  hoax 

 
Legend
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

I would say 90% or more. All depends when this thing goes away.   Question is how are people going to act after this is over? Business as usual or maybe a little skittish for awhile. It will be interesting.

 

 

peace_5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #7

The problem people may have is that if this tracks similar to the Spanish flu of 1918, it went away in the summer, only to rear it's head again in the Fall. Hopefully, we get our arms around it very very soon.

 
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Posted: #8

China reports no more new cases. If you believe that then it is very encouraging.

Couple of old drugs appear to help those affected. Malaria drug and Ebola drug have shown promise to reduce symptoms

Vaccine testing has begun. Usually requiring 18-24 months to be approved, I would expect a bit faster track for this one.

The economies of the world are taking a beating, THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN UNDER CONTROL if we expect to return to "normal".

I am still optimistic that some sort of college football season will happen this year. Maybe shortened??

Side note: Those clueless a-hole kids on spring break should all be locked up on that beach for the next month by the military. If by then none test positive, let them go, otherwise stay some more. China beat the chit out of those who ignored the law and it worked for them. This isn't "life as usual", "won't happen to me" time!

 
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Posted: #9

Herbie, of ESPN fame, is quoted as saying he would be shocked if there was football this year. I hope not but I would bet that he is right.

 

GL

 
Prospect
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Posted: #10

Back to normalcy soon...#'s are dropping and will prob drop below the yearly flu #'s...No worries mahn...

 
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Posted: #11

I say 90%.  We have four months before fall camp.  Thats a lot of time for things to clear up.

 
Legend
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Posted: #12

Quote Originally Posted by WYBBOB:

Back to normalcy soon...#'s are dropping and will prob drop below the yearly flu #'s...No worries mahn...

an_eek2an_nailbiterStart praying

 
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Posted: #13

Quote Originally Posted by WYBBOB:

Back to normalcy soon...#'s are dropping and will prob drop below the yearly flu #'s...No worries mahn...

 

lol

 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by mjm1012:

Quote Originally Posted by WYBBOB: Back to normalcy soon...#'s are dropping and will prob drop below the yearly flu #'s...No worries mahn... Start praying

 

I agree..start praying. peace_5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #15

new_devil

 
Legend
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Posted: #16

I'd give it a 10% now ....This is not going away anytime soon ....

 

Schools will be lucky to start before November 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

I'd give it a 10% now ....This is not going away anytime soon ....   Schools will be lucky to start before November

 

Very curious to hear the reasoning on the points you're making.  I work on the front line of this thing, and while it's a very interesting and scary virus, it's not the first of it's kind that we've seen and squashed, granted without this extent of spread.  Based on many of your posts you like to blame the president for pretty much everything lol.  I think he could of done things differently early on, but man mindsets like yours are shared by a very loud group (both politicians and citizens in this country) and are very much apart of the problem whether you want to believe that or not. 

 
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Posted: #18

The curve is going to flatten & restrictions are going to be lifted on a state to state basis in my opinion.  What we're doing with social distancing is clearly working, and projections are being crushed at the facility I'm employed by.  We've cancelled plans for converting clinics to extra ER space, and have also plans to open surge hospitals for the influx of patients that were just a few weeks ago expected to over run our normal capacity. 

SARS and MERS are coronaviruses that we've dealt with in 2003 and 2012, so while this new strain is more widespread it's not a challenge we haven't met and beaten in the past.  You can point fingers as to why we're in the position we are now, but that's not going to do you any good. Did China try to hide it? Did the WHO try to protect China? Who knows, conspiracy galore.  Did the left ride the racism card too far when Trump locked down travel early on (not early enough unfortunately).  Did Trump downplay it to a fault early on? Could be a little of all of that, but it's all useless blame at this point in time.  

With this coronavirus we're going to continue to learn and adapt as more information comes out.  How will it respond to hot, humid summer weather? Typically viruses don't like heat, but will it return in the fall and spread like wildfire again? One thing I know for sure is human behavior is going to change regardless of government guidelines.  Most people will want to continue to distance in May/June, wear masks, etc out of fear.  

But man we are talking about a sport/classes 5 months from now, our response to this virus is going to be completely different by then in terms of screening, testing capabilities, therapies, and possibly even a limited vaccine by fall of 2020.  To give you perspective of the advancements we made in testing... A family member of mine was tested March 19 and the result took 5-6 days, by the time I showed symptoms and needed a test on April 2 the result took 3 hours. That's an unbelievable change in less than 2 weeks time. Companies are racing to produce testing mechanisms that spit out results in 10-15 minutes, do you have any idea what that does for containment efforts and ability to isolate sick individuals, and effectively squash this virus completely? Check out the containment of SARS for reference, no vaccine and the strain is gone in 8 months time.  MERS is still floating around, but no vaccine, just very tight containment and you have probably never heard of that one before (it's fatality rate is significantly higher than covid-19 for documented cases.)  The difference with this one is so many people were spreading asymptomatically, and Wuhan being a major commerce hub people were all over the world before anyone showed symptoms after infection.  Cat was out of the bag before anybody really knew the extent. 

 

 
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Posted: #19

I was reading earlier many universities have expressed optimism students and athletes will be on campus by July 15.  If that happens, which is highly likely in most parts of the US in my opinion, then an on time start is very likely.  I don't think the appetite to attend huge gatherings will be there for the general public, but you never know what advancements will be made in 5 months time that will give people comfort in decisions to attend a sporting event.  

I'm admittedly optimistic, but I'd say there is an 85% chance college football kicks off as scheduled, but it's a fluid situation with still many unknowns about the virus. Now if there's another massive outbreak or a mutation to a deadlier strain, etc with the lockdown like we have now then I'd reconsider that prediction. Hell it's possible some governors straight up outlaw it & some schools don't compete at all based on the way some states have responded.  The crowds likely won't look like 2019, but you truly never know this far out.  The key will be when restrictions are lifted in May, and we inevitably have repeat smaller outbreaks, how do we respond as a community in screening, testing, and containing the spread.  We failed initially, but we now know enough about the virus to have strategies in place.... and again the clinical trials of drugs right now are going to to reveal significant findings over the following weeks and months that completely change the perception of covid-19 I think. 

 
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Posted: #20

One more thing, especially for the "not going out until theres a vaccine crowd"... to add more perspective, and this one is absolutely inconceivable to me. It is a FACT that influenza can lead to a secondary/co-infection of pneumonia and kill much like covid-19 does.  It is documented that from 2010-2019 (9 years) there were roughly 260 million symptomatic cases of influenza in the U.S alone, resulting in 4 million hospitalizations, and an estimated 350,000 deaths (almost 40,000 people die a year between october-april/may in a US flu season).  Still during that same nine year span anywhere from 37.1-45.3% of adults got the flu shot annually.  

My point is.... and here's the optimist in me again... is that people should wake the F up and get their flu shots in this country.  No it's not a perfect vaccine, and most people survive it even if they get the flu, but like with covid-19 there's people who can't fight these illnesses off.  In the long-term and bigger picture of public health there's a chance what we're going through right now might actually save more lives, more hospitalizations and medical resources than if covid-19 never happened.  

end rant new_cool

 
Legend
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

I'd give it a 10% now ....This is not going away anytime soon ....   Schools will be lucky to start before November

 

I'd drop the odds to 5% chance now of a college football season 

 
Legend
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Posted: #22

Quote Originally Posted by HockeyNight11:

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life: I'd give it a 10% now ....This is not going away anytime soon ....   Schools will be lucky to start before November   Very curious to hear the reasoning on the points you're making.  I work on the front line of this thing, and while it's a very interesting and scary virus, it's not the first of it's kind that we've seen and squashed, granted without this extent of spread.  Based on many of your posts you like to blame the president for pretty much everything lol.  I think he could of done things differently early on, but man mindsets like yours are shared by a very loud group (both politicians and citizens in this country) and are very much apart of the problem whether you want to believe that or not.

 

Trump said it was a democratic hoax  that would just go away .....

Having him as a president  is far more dangerous than going to a shady car mechanic  for open heart surgery 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #23

Another baseless and uneducated response completely irrelevant to the question asked. I guess it's about what I expected. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #24

  Trump said it was a democratic hoax  that would just go away ..... Having him as a president  is far more dangerous than going to a shady car mechanic  for open heart surgery[/Quote]

[image from unapproved source]

 
Legend
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Posted: #25

Current odds there is a a college football season that starts in 2020  

Yes +20,000

No. -30,000

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