NCAA Week Four Ponderings

@Craginator

Final update

Arkansas -7' at MEMPHIS - Hard to ignore the Tigers 44-6 record at home since 2017, but this is by far their toughest test to date this year. Hogs are on the road again after a tough loss at Ole Miss, with Notre Dame on deck.

OKLAHOMA -6' vs. Auburn - i was mistaken when I earlier stated it was Oklahoma's Homecoming game. Home chalk in that situation is usually a fade for me. Still leaning War Eagle but I liked it better at +7.

OLE MISS -12 vs. Tulane - The announcement that backup QB Trinidad Chambliss will be starting for the Rebels in place of injured Austin Simmons has me looking hard at Ole Miss here. I'm not so sure that Chambliss shouldn't be the starter! All he's done is complete 25 of 35 passes for 412 yards and two TDs, while rushing for 83 yards and two more scores. Simmons has thrown four picks to go with four TD passes. Got a feeling the Green Wave could be overwhelmed here. 

NOTRE DAME -24' vs. Purdue - If the Boilermakers can avoid the mistakes they made last week vs. USC the Irish could have their hands full here. This is a much improved team under Barry Odom.

Michigan -1' at NEBRASKA - The Cornhuskers haven't beat a ranked team since 2016, losing 27 straight. They have a good chance to end that streak here. Wolverines HC Sherrone Moore is suspended and frosh QB Bryce Underwood will have to play a lot better than he did in his first road start at Oklahoma two weeks ago (9 of 24 for 142 yards).

DUKE -3 vs. Nc State - I think the Wolfpack are the better team getting points, with two extra days prep time and playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing to the Blue Devils the last two years. They're undefeated because they're winning the fourth quarter on defense, and they're taking care of the football. Duke is -6 in net turnovers and have had special teams gaffes. 

MISSOURI -10 vs. South Carolina - I'm not stepping in front of the Tigers right now. They're playing well in all phases and have owned this series, except for last year's 34-30 road loss, which snapped a five game win streak. Spread wise Mizzou has covered six straight vs. the Gamecocks, who are a far cry from the team they were a year ago. LaNorris Sellers will play, but how effective will he be? 

Byu -6' at EAST CAROLINA - This is a new addition to my potential playlist. It's a long road trip for the Stormin' Mormans and true frosh QB Bear Bachmeier is making his first road start, after easy wins over FCS Portland St. and Stanford in Provo. The Pirates showed their mettle in a narrow Week One loss at NC State. They won't be an easy out. Call this one a gut feeling.

MIAMI-FL -7' vs. Florida - Hopefully the Gators don't make me look stupid here, but the old axiom should apply, "No team is as good as they looked the week before and no team is as bad as they looked the week before." I don't think Billy Napier is a bad coach, and when he has a losing record he's 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in his career. Hopefully, DJ Lagway gets the memo and doesn't throw five picks again.

VIRGINIA -16' vs. Stanford - Another new game that caught my attention. It's a long road trip for the Cardinal, and last week's win over BC didn't convince me they're any good. The Eagles were in a bad spot travel wise, off an overtime loss at Michigan St. and then having to go coast to coast to face the Cardinal. QB Chandler Morris has the Cavalier offense humming and even though this is pretty heavy chalk I don't think Stan can keep up. 

@Boisestateand8

 Don't sleep on Florida in this situation.