NCAA Week 8 Ponderings

Horrible officiating in the Georgia-Auburn game cost me a winning week. Auburn was my top play last week. It sucks big time when you handicap a game correctly only to get beat by the zebras. Moving on....

Friday, Oct. 17th

MIAMI-FL -13' Louisville - Both teams come into this matchup off a bye. The road team has won the last two meetings by seven points apiece. Could be more of the same.

UTAH ST. -3' San Jose St. - The Spartans are on the road again after suffering a 35-28 upset loss at Wyoming. The Aggies are off back to back losses at Vanderbilt and at Hawaii, and return home for the first time in about a month. HC Bronco Mendenhall is 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS at home when his team is off an outright loss as a favorite. Lean to Utah St. in this one.

Saturday, Oct. 18th 

BOSTON COLLEGE -1' UConn - The Huskies are off a bye following a 51-10 blowout win over FIU. The Eagles are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS vs. FBS competition, and because of injuries are being forced to play a younger lineup on defense. Feels like the wrong team may be favored here.

TULANE -9' Army - The Green Wave look to avenge last year's 35-14 loss in the AAC title game.

VANDERBILT -2' Lsu - Vandy favored over LSU. It's hard to wrap my head around that. The Commodores are off a bye following their loss at Alabama.

CLEMSON -9' Smu - The Mustangs are out for revenge following last season's 34-31 upset loss in the ACC title game. Both teams are 2-0 following their byes, but Tigers QB Cade Klubnick sprained his ankle in last week's rout of Boston College and could be a little gimpy this week. Blowout wins over the Eagles and North Carolina haven't convinced me that Clemson has fixed all their issues, and SMU has yet to lose a conference game since joining the ACC.

GEORGIA -7' Ole Miss - I've come to the conclusion that the best way to handicap this game is to figure out what the SEC deems as the best result for the conference. The Bulldogs were well on their way to a loss last week at Auburn before the officials took control late in the first half. I like the Rebels and the points here, but I don't doubt the officials will do all they can to prevent Georgia from suffering a second loss. 

BOISE ST. -12' Unlv - The Rebels are winless vs. the Broncos as MWC members. It's hard to see Boise St. not scoring 40 plus against this defense. Question is can UNLV keep up? They have enough firepower to stay within the inflated number, but I'm passing this.

Texas Tech -7' ARIZONA ST. - This line continues to drop. Both QBs are dinged up but likely to play, as of right now. Regardless, I'm not stepping in front of the Red Raiders again after they beat me last week.

Memphis -21' UAB - The Tigers are 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and 5-1 ITS, and are cruising towards the G5 playoff berth, but they do have USF on deck. The Blazers fired HC Trent Dilfer after last week's 53-33 loss at FAU. 

FLORIDA -9' Mississippi St. - Both teams are off blowout losses at Texas A&M, but the Bulldogs had last week off to lick their wounds and are 7-3 ATS in their last ten tries as a dog, 4-1 on the road. It's Florida's homecoming game, which makes them a poor proposition to begin with as home chalk, and they're 2-7 ATS as it is in that role under Billy Napier.

Good luck! I do want to ask is your reason for picking Tulane over Army solely because you think they’re looking to avenge their loss to Army?

@Boisestateand8

 I have seen you use the term several times and while I am usually pretty good at acronyms from my time with the Army, I cannot figure out ITS.

Maybe my first reply is still being reviewed, but I don't see it here, so I will ask again.  What is ITS?

@lumpy701

 Are you sure you are not referring to ATS as opposed to ITS ? If so; ATS means Against the Spread

Great write ups!  Thanks for the warning on Florida 

Duh. I know ATS. He uses both ATS and ITS regarding the Memphis game.

ITS is in the stats, I believe.

I'm not taking either side. I just posted the current lines as of today. I do think Tulane wins this game and that's really all they care about as far as the revenge motivation goes. They could care less about covering the big number. Thanks for chiming in. 

ITS stands for In The Stats, so when I say Memphis is 5-1 ITS it just means that they've outgained their opponents five out of six times. 

With you on Tulane...Like a few others...

Memphis - on paper, should be a blow out, but what gave me pause was Memphis on the road, and a lookahead sport with USF on deck...

Tulane plays better at home, and though army has improved, I think Tulane will cover...

@LonghornHoosier

 I don't know if I'll wind up taking Tulane but I know I'm not taking Army. As for Memphis, the look ahead to USF makes me wary, and so does the coaching change for UAB. You don't know how kids will react to it. Look at UCLA for an example. Btw, congrats on your Horns and Hoosiers for huge wins last week! 

Saturday evening games

Oregon -17' RUTGERS - The Ducks were humbled at home by Indiana and now travel 2900 miles to the East Coast with their tail feathers between their legs. Their biggest task here is to not let the Hoosiers beat them twice. However, Rutgers is 3-12 ATS as a home dog under Greg Schiano.

VIRGINIA -17' Washington St. - The road weary Cougars, off a valiant effort at Ole Miss, head back across the country to Charlottesville to face the high scoring Cavaliers. Virginia is off a bye, and despite home chalk being a poor investment in homecoming games, it's hard to see this game being close. 

IOWA -3 Penn St. - Two teams headed in opposite directions. The Nittany Lions are in a nose dive while the Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS and are off a 37-0 rout of Wisconsin, a week after giving Indiana all it could handle. This game looks easy. Maybe TOO easy.

COLORADO ST. -2' Hawaii - The Rainbow Warriors are a solid 5-2 SU, 5-1 ATS and 6-1 ITS, and are off an impressive 44-26 home win over a decent Utah St. team. The Rams are off a deceiving 49-21 upset win over Fresno. They were outgained by 130 yards, but turned three turnovers and a fourth down stop into 28 points. Hawaii has already beaten Air Force on the road and they're good enough to spoil CSU's homecoming. I think the wrong team is favored here.

USF -21' Fau - The Owls are off a pair of impressive wins after being blasted at home by Memphis. The Bulls took advantage of five turnovers, scoring four TDs in a span of three and a half minutes in a 63-36 runaway at North Texas. It's Homecoming for USF and they have a massive game vs. Memphis on deck. FAU is -11 in net turnovers, but they can hang around in this one if they play clean.

NOTRE DAME -9' Usc - The Trojans are off a dominant home win over Michigan but they've suffered a cluster of injuries in the RB room. The Irish have been on a roll after an 0-2 start, and have won the last six meetings in South Bend, going 5-1 ATS. Weather could be a factor here, and this one feels like a 27-24 kind of game.

Pittsburgh -10' SYRACUSE - This is a bad spot for the Panthers, off an upset win at FSU and on their second straight road trip. The Orange are off a bye and could be a live dog here, but it's hard to trust their QB situation. 

ALABAMA -8' Tennessee - The Volunteers haven't won in Tuscaloosa since 2003. They could hang around in this one behind a strong running game vs. a Crimson Tide defense that has struggled to stop the run. The Vols have their own issues on defense. In three conference games they've allowed 109 points which is something Alabama will exploit. This has all the makings of a track meet.

Missouri -1' AUBURN - Both Tigers teams are off tough losses, but Auburn's was particularly devastating the way it went down, and it put HC Hugh Freeze squarely on the hot seat. Since he took over Auburn is a pathetic 1-11 against nationally ranked teams and is 5-14 vs. the SEC. The way the calls seem to go against Freeze, you have to wonder whose Cheerios he pissed into. 

Utah -3 BYU - Huge revenge game in the Holy War for the Utes, who were robbed big time at home last year in a 22-21 loss in Salt Lake City. This one is a tough call. Could go either way.

Florida St. -17' STANFORD - The Seminoles are on a 0-3 SU and ATS slide and have now lost ten of their last 11 ACC games, including eight in a row! And here we have yet another coast to coast road trip vs. a Cardinal team that isn't near as bad their 34-10 loss at SMU would indicate. It's Stanford's homecoming and it's a 10:30 pm Eastern start time for Florida St. I like the Tree in this one. 

That's all folks!

Clemson is now -5' over SMU after the report saying he was limited in practice and was iffy to play Saturday. The four point drop in the line would indicate he's out this week. Vegas knows something. They always do.

"He" being Klubnik. 

Write-ups 

Thanks! 

@mjm1012

Friday update 

MIAMI-FL -12' Louisville - Cards are a public dog and the line has dropped a point. I was leaning Louisville initially, but I don't know if their offensive line can hold up here against the 'Canes' ferocious defensive front. Plus their RBs are banged up. If Miami plays four complete quarters it might not be close.

Nebraska -7 MINNESOTA - This wasn't on my initial potential playlist, but the Cornhuskers have been dealing with a lot of Matt Rhule to Penn St. distractions this week. Plus, it's their second straight road game and on a short week. I don't think the Gophers are that good but they may be able to hang here. Both teams have been money burners though, going 1-8-1 ATS combined. Yuck.

UTAH ST. -4 San Jose - This one opened at -3' and I was hoping it would drop to three but it went the other way. Still leaning Aggies but there are better opportunities tomorrow. 

Good luck’’’’’’

@Boisestateand8

 I am confused. You list Tulane then say your only showing the line, So are u just showing the line on the rest that are listed also?

@DMD252

 It's just a list of the games I'm looking at with the favorites listed first. Home teams in caps. I've narrowed down a top ten list of sides I'm considering with the current lines. Writeups are above. 

UConn +1' 

Smu +5' 

Texas Tech -7

Mississippi St. +10

VIRGINIA -17'

Hawaii +2'

Fau +21'

Missouri -1'

BYU +3'

STANFORD +17'

I'm certainly not playing all of these. College football has not been my friend this season. I've had a ton of bad beats, so I'm treading lightly. BOL!

He does write ups for games that are potential plays. Doesnt necessarily mean he will play it.