Alright guys over the next 2 weeks i will be doing write-ups of every conference and all 125 fbs teams. Because unlike our friends at the 4 letter network i live in a world where all 125 fbs teams matterToday i'm doing the independent schools as well as the Sun Belt. Now before we go further in Phil Steele's magazine and others they classify Old Dominion as an fbs independent. i will not write-up ODU as i don't consider them to be an fbs team until next year when they join C-USA. Now that we have that out of the way lets get to it
6. New Mexico State 2-10
Dewayne Walker snuck out of Las Cruces with his 10-40 record in January to become an assistant coach with Jacksonville. Former Kent State HC Doug Martin takes over a program that has lost 14 games in a row vs fbs teams,that had a turnover ratio LY of -18{Only Arkansas,USF and Colorado were worse in that category} 21 games in a row of giving up 24 pts or more to fbs teams. LY lost to UTSA by 3td's and got destroyed by Texas State in the final game ever of WAC football
This is a team who couldn't stop the run giving up 2,657 rushing yards LY. With the implosion of the WAC they're an independent this year and they put together a good schedule. 4 games vs bcs schools,6 games vs teams that went to bowls LY. They head into the Sun belt next year for football only and i was glad they found a conference. I see wins over Abilene Christian and FAU but this is the journey of a million miles for this program with step 1 coming as an independent
5. Idaho 2-10 {I have them beating New Mexico State}
For a program that nearly had to go back to FCS football Idaho has landed on their feet well in the past few months. They have a good schedule in their only year as an independent. 5 games vs bowl teams including both NIU and Florida State who played against each other in the Orange Bowl. 4 games vs bcs conference teams. Plus they were able to hire Paul Petrino as HC and i think that was a very good hire
Its an uphill climb for Petrino as no team was worse in the country on 3rd down LY then the Vandals. A 1-11 team who lost to Eastern Washington on Opening Night 20-3. This year they lose their top 2 qb's,top 6 tacklers,leading rusher and receiver. I'm glad both Idaho and NM.State landed on their feet in terms of having a conference next year but both will struggle big time this year
4. Army 3-9
Even though they went into the Navy game 2-9 had they beat Navy it would've been a successful year. You say How? They would've been 3-9! Well they would've beaten Air Force and Navy and they would've won the commander in chief trophy for the 1st time since 1996. LY was a tough year for Army including a 23-3 loss to Stony Brook at HM. They lose the only qb in the history of Army football to start 4 Army-Navy games in Trent Steelman. My heart broke for Steelman fumbling the ball at the end of the Army-Navy game
This is a program who's lost 11 in a row to Navy and i don't see that changing this year. When you're a service academy your margin for error is a lot smaller than other schools and this is a team that has lost 42 fumbles over the last 2 years most in fbs. This is Rich Ellerson's 5th year at West Point and they return his most starters at 15. They tinkered with a shotgun package in the spring to try to improve their passing
Interesting stat for ya. In Ellerson's 4 years at Army his team has completed 50% of their passes in a season once. That was in 2010 they year they beat SMU in the bowl. The other 3 years under 50% completions=no bowl. So while they will continue to run a ton when they're decnt throwing they have success. Ellerson may be on the hot seat but if i were him i wouldn't want to get fired due to Army's schedule next year. Army's schedule sets up in 2014 to win 7-8 games. I have a soft spot in my heart for Army as a kid from my hometown has enrolled at West Point. I hope i'm wrong but i see 3-9 this year
3. Navy 7-5
This is a textbook case of a team that i believe will be better than LY but have a worse record. Navy was the only triple option team LY who didn't run the ball 800 times LY. LY due to their schedule i called for them to win 9 games but they finished with 8 wins. Their season changed when Trey Miller got hurt in the Air Force game and Keenan Reynolds came in and never lost the job. Reynolds brought great energy and a threat of the pass. LY i talked about how Navy was adding a shotgun package. This year they will have more plays out of the shotgun to take advantage of Reynolds ability
The defense has to be better as LY they allowed 2516 yds rushing on top of that they lose their top 4 tacklers from LY. Since Niumatololo took over in Annapolis they're +40 in Turnover ratio. On the offensive side of the ball Gee Gee Greene and Trey Miller was going to be moved to slot back but he got kicked out of the Naval academy. Keenan reynolds is a special qb heck Navy while they are a triple option team at heart only had 3 games LY where they didn't throw 10 passes! They had a 57.6% completion rate LY They're contractually locked into the Armed Forces Bowl and i believe they're headed to their 10th bowl game in 11 years
2. BYU 8-4
This is BYU's 3rd year as an independent and without a doubt this is the toughest schedule they've had. 6 games vs bcs conference teams. 8 games vs bowl eligible teams from LY. Sophmore qb Tayson Hill will be the guy this year and i liked what i saw from him LY. They hired Robert Anae from AZ to be the OC for the purposes of playing with tempo. they want to snap the ball every 10-12 seconds. They ran 77 plays a game LY. Defense wasn't the problem LY as they allowed only 14 ppg LY and only 26.5% conversions on 3rd down LY
Bronco Mendenhall since become the HC at BYU is 57-42-1 ATS. 74-29 SU. I actually see BYU getting off to a 6-1 start. BYU is contractually locked into the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl and i believe they willhead to their 9th straight bowl under Nendenhall
1. Notre Dame 8-4 {I have them beating BYU}
Boy not been a good year for the Golden Domers Huh? From losing to Bama,to Kelly thinking about leaving,To Te'o's girlfriend not being dead,To te'os Girlfirend not being a girl. To the mess with Eddie Vanderdoes. To Golson getting suspended,To Gunner Kiel transferring. August 31st vs Temple can't come soon enough!
A lot of you will think i'm nuts for saying this but that temple game may be 1 of the more important games Kelly has coached at ND. A lot of the crows are starting to circle again and if they don't destroy temple the flaming pitchforks may come out. Look lets talk facts they should've lost to Purdue,Stanford,BYU and Pitt LY. And before any ND people call me a hater remember that LY when the country said ND would win 5-7 games with their schedule i called for 9 wins and if Kelly would pick a qb they'd win 10
They exceeded everyone's expectations LY getting to the BCS title game. I'm gonna make ND fans mad at me for saying this by starting Tommy Rees you are accepting mediocrity period. Ly i said start Hendrix or Golson hell even Kiel but don't start Rees. i'll say it this year start or Hendrix or zaire don't start Rees. too many people have overreacted to the Golson suspension. I had them winning 9 games with him this year