(2-3) Middle Tennessee @ (4-1) Western Kentucky ***MY GOW***
Great win last week with Temple routing Charlotte 37-3. Let's move on this Saturday with MTSU +9.
Though the spread eyeballs up to be about right in the casual sports-betting world, I personally have the line at 3.5. Despite WKY 4-1 record and MTSU 2-3, the teams are actually much closer together in talent then those records indicate.
Two or MTSU's losses (the most recent) were by a total of 6 points. They lost 17-13 to Vanderbilt on a last minute TD..MTSU was actually beating Vandy 13-3 going into the 4th quarter and @ Illinois by a FG with 2 mins left in the game making it 27-25. MTSU's other loss cam @Alabama 37-10 (MTSU COVERED.)
Though WKY beat Vanderbilt 14-12, Vandy dominated the game... but had costly 3 turnovers (1 INT in the end zone) and 2 missed field goals that gave WKY the 2 point win.
So WKY could have easily lost the game and MTSU easily won, but lets forget that for now. It is what it is. This is just merely a common opponent measuring stick of each team vs the other.
The real gem angle here is the history of this game. It has become somewhat of a major rivalry game for each school. Lets look at the 7 most recent meetings in the rivalry.
As you can see, MTSU has not lost to WKY by 3 or more since 2007. In fact dating back farther...MTSU has not lost at WKY SU since 1989, (if you don't like doing the math) that is 26 years. .
These games are always close, MTSU is undefeated s at WKY for 26 years. Bothe teams have played similar type schedules with very similar results and I can find no reason to suddenly jack up at 10 point spread other then the teams records on paper supporting it for the public. I have this game handicapped at 3.5 in my ratings and see no talent reasons or injuries to account for the 6 points of fluff.
MAJOR NOTE: MTSU has been without their Guard Darius Johnson, their major run blocker the past two games...but he will be back 100% for the WKY game. This will help a lot.
Take MTSU +9 early...the line will only drop. Don't be shocked if MTSU wins SU (they haven't lost at WKY in 26 years) so maybe "shocked is the wrong word.
(2-3) Middle Tennessee @ (4-1) Western Kentucky ***MY GOW***
Great win last week with Temple routing Charlotte 37-3. Let's move on this Saturday with MTSU +9.
Though the spread eyeballs up to be about right in the casual sports-betting world, I personally have the line at 3.5. Despite WKY 4-1 record and MTSU 2-3, the teams are actually much closer together in talent then those records indicate.
Two or MTSU's losses (the most recent) were by a total of 6 points. They lost 17-13 to Vanderbilt on a last minute TD..MTSU was actually beating Vandy 13-3 going into the 4th quarter and @ Illinois by a FG with 2 mins left in the game making it 27-25. MTSU's other loss cam @Alabama 37-10 (MTSU COVERED.)
Though WKY beat Vanderbilt 14-12, Vandy dominated the game... but had costly 3 turnovers (1 INT in the end zone) and 2 missed field goals that gave WKY the 2 point win.
So WKY could have easily lost the game and MTSU easily won, but lets forget that for now. It is what it is. This is just merely a common opponent measuring stick of each team vs the other.
The real gem angle here is the history of this game. It has become somewhat of a major rivalry game for each school. Lets look at the 7 most recent meetings in the rivalry.
As you can see, MTSU has not lost to WKY by 3 or more since 2007. In fact dating back farther...MTSU has not lost at WKY SU since 1989, (if you don't like doing the math) that is 26 years. .
These games are always close, MTSU is undefeated s at WKY for 26 years. Bothe teams have played similar type schedules with very similar results and I can find no reason to suddenly jack up at 10 point spread other then the teams records on paper supporting it for the public. I have this game handicapped at 3.5 in my ratings and see no talent reasons or injuries to account for the 6 points of fluff.
MAJOR NOTE: MTSU has been without their Guard Darius Johnson, their major run blocker the past two games...but he will be back 100% for the WKY game. This will help a lot.
Take MTSU +9 early...the line will only drop. Don't be shocked if MTSU wins SU (they haven't lost at WKY in 26 years) so maybe "shocked is the wrong word.
don't disagree by any means but not sure past matchups matter so much when this is by far the best Western Kentucky team ever and not one of the better MTSU teams
for those reasons alone I tend to overlook past results
that said, I don't disagree with your side, just not sure about the game yet
don't disagree by any means but not sure past matchups matter so much when this is by far the best Western Kentucky team ever and not one of the better MTSU teams
for those reasons alone I tend to overlook past results
that said, I don't disagree with your side, just not sure about the game yet
don't disagree by any means but not sure past matchups matter so much when this is by far the best Western Kentucky team ever and not one of the better MTSU teams
for those reasons alone I tend to overlook past results
that said, I don't disagree with your side, just not sure about the game yet
best of luck and nice job with Temple last week
I have noticed WKY getting some media hype this year in a couple of their blowout wins, probably accounts for some of the fluff, the public will know more about WKY good season.
I disagree about MTSU, WKY may have upgraded at QB and TE, but MTSU is status quo.
But I respect all feedback and understand if your gun-shy.
don't disagree by any means but not sure past matchups matter so much when this is by far the best Western Kentucky team ever and not one of the better MTSU teams
for those reasons alone I tend to overlook past results
that said, I don't disagree with your side, just not sure about the game yet
best of luck and nice job with Temple last week
I have noticed WKY getting some media hype this year in a couple of their blowout wins, probably accounts for some of the fluff, the public will know more about WKY good season.
I disagree about MTSU, WKY may have upgraded at QB and TE, but MTSU is status quo.
But I respect all feedback and understand if your gun-shy.
Not sure why you didn't go after Temple Tulane! It's basically the same game as Charlotte with the proper line adjustment for Temple being at home.
Owls have been on a tough stretch and are just looking to win, not margin teams. Temple blasted Char (because Char is basically a High School team).... but i did notice Char actually out gained Temple, and Tulane has more to offer then Char offensively. So I am just sitting back w/ Temple until they catch Notre Dame at home....
Basically, I think Temple will win out until Notre Dame,,,,but Temple is in a weird situation now...where every game is essentially a look ahead until Notre Dame...and I don't lay 10 or more in a look ahead game
Not sure why you didn't go after Temple Tulane! It's basically the same game as Charlotte with the proper line adjustment for Temple being at home.
Owls have been on a tough stretch and are just looking to win, not margin teams. Temple blasted Char (because Char is basically a High School team).... but i did notice Char actually out gained Temple, and Tulane has more to offer then Char offensively. So I am just sitting back w/ Temple until they catch Notre Dame at home....
Basically, I think Temple will win out until Notre Dame,,,,but Temple is in a weird situation now...where every game is essentially a look ahead until Notre Dame...and I don't lay 10 or more in a look ahead game
FYI: I AM ALSO COSIDERING A PLAY ON UMASS IF IT GETS TO +14
If so I will write another thread when it happens.
a good thought but the smart type bettor will probably keep that line from staying at 14 very long, I wouldn't be suprised to see that line hit 11.5 by Saturday
FYI: I AM ALSO COSIDERING A PLAY ON UMASS IF IT GETS TO +14
If so I will write another thread when it happens.
a good thought but the smart type bettor will probably keep that line from staying at 14 very long, I wouldn't be suprised to see that line hit 11.5 by Saturday
m15525 - what star rating would you give your MT play? also what star rating for the umass if it hits 14?
I only write-up plays on here where I make a max bet at my sports book. So It's an elite game (not really a "star" or "Unit" system guy.
I don't bet for watching games and getting action, I bet a maybe couple games a week and thats it, and only when they fit into my criteria using several systems, situational and value seeking.
m15525 - what star rating would you give your MT play? also what star rating for the umass if it hits 14?
I only write-up plays on here where I make a max bet at my sports book. So It's an elite game (not really a "star" or "Unit" system guy.
I don't bet for watching games and getting action, I bet a maybe couple games a week and thats it, and only when they fit into my criteria using several systems, situational and value seeking.
a good thought but the smart type bettor will probably keep that line from staying at 14 very long, I wouldn't be suprised to see that line hit 11.5 by Saturday
It initially bumped up...but it may bounce between 12-13. I'll just have to shop...or bye it up to a two td spread. I will not play it unless it's 14 and I won't pay anymore then 30cents to get there.
a good thought but the smart type bettor will probably keep that line from staying at 14 very long, I wouldn't be suprised to see that line hit 11.5 by Saturday
It initially bumped up...but it may bounce between 12-13. I'll just have to shop...or bye it up to a two td spread. I will not play it unless it's 14 and I won't pay anymore then 30cents to get there.
Appreciate the insight. I looked at your past write ups and they all look solid. I just took MTSU +9 and also bought 1/2 on UMASS to +14 for 2 dimes each.
Here's a solid Pac-12 play if you're interested, which I posted:
Appreciate the insight. I looked at your past write ups and they all look solid. I just took MTSU +9 and also bought 1/2 on UMASS to +14 for 2 dimes each.
Here's a solid Pac-12 play if you're interested, which I posted:
Appreciate the insight. I looked at your past write ups and they all look solid. I just took MTSU +9 and also bought 1/2 on UMASS to +14 for 2 dimes each.
Here's a solid Pac-12 play if you're interested, which I posted:
Appreciate the insight. I looked at your past write ups and they all look solid. I just took MTSU +9 and also bought 1/2 on UMASS to +14 for 2 dimes each.
Here's a solid Pac-12 play if you're interested, which I posted:
Sure are more than likely right , being all close match-ups , but the public is seeing the same thing you , with the line movement dropping the game to WK - 8 1/2 ... Vegas is usually right on their opening lines , so why do you suppose WK opened up so high , knowing that this Series is traditionally a tight one and how Mid Tn St has played vs some decent competition ...
Sure are more than likely right , being all close match-ups , but the public is seeing the same thing you , with the line movement dropping the game to WK - 8 1/2 ... Vegas is usually right on their opening lines , so why do you suppose WK opened up so high , knowing that this Series is traditionally a tight one and how Mid Tn St has played vs some decent competition ...
MT - btw, I love your style. I too do not play many games nor do I post often, but I am always researching and when I find ones that look really good I will hammer
MT - btw, I love your style. I too do not play many games nor do I post often, but I am always researching and when I find ones that look really good I will hammer
Sure are more than likely right , being all close match-ups , but the public is seeing the same thing you , with the line movement dropping the game to WK - 8 1/2 ... Vegas is usually right on their opening lines , so why do you suppose WK opened up so high , knowing that this Series is traditionally a tight one and how Mid Tn St has played vs some decent competition ...
Good Luck ...
The public is not interested in this game, nor do they know anything about this match-up history. You are partially correct, the opening spread is usually accurate on pro games and major TV games...but these added games or small school games are usually not interesting to the public and only draw a specific type of bettor. Especially since the books have less exposure (usually by having low betting limits) on games like this. That being said, it doesn't take a whole lot of sharp money to move a line on a game like this.
Sure are more than likely right , being all close match-ups , but the public is seeing the same thing you , with the line movement dropping the game to WK - 8 1/2 ... Vegas is usually right on their opening lines , so why do you suppose WK opened up so high , knowing that this Series is traditionally a tight one and how Mid Tn St has played vs some decent competition ...
Good Luck ...
The public is not interested in this game, nor do they know anything about this match-up history. You are partially correct, the opening spread is usually accurate on pro games and major TV games...but these added games or small school games are usually not interesting to the public and only draw a specific type of bettor. Especially since the books have less exposure (usually by having low betting limits) on games like this. That being said, it doesn't take a whole lot of sharp money to move a line on a game like this.
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